In the 25:50 PLO?

Played with my friend from awhile back, J. He wanted 25/50 this time so we played 25/50. I actually learned that he's pretty solid at postflop poker today, but obviously he's still the "fish" in the game since he's straddling to $200 every single hand and potting my limp preflop with about 80% of his range (obviously I'm never limp/folding).

Let's see, most interesting hand for today:

Hand 1: J straddles on my left to $200, everyone folds, I limp with KT93, J raises $400 more as expected, I call.

Flop KQ9, pot $1250

I check, J bets $800, I call.

Turn J, pot $2850
Check/check.

River 3, pot $2850
I lead for $1500, J repots for around ~$7.5k total... I had already established a dynamic where I had been leading rivers as a bluff and checking my value hands (from several hands that went to showdown), so it was kind of weird since I pretty much induced a raise... but would he ever bluff this board where it's so likely I have the stone cold nuts? I ended up folding... not sure if he always has ATxx here or if he is just that sick.

The reason I led out was because I expect he has a lot of hands that hand some SDV here to check behind that could hero call, like 2pair/sets.

Hand 2: This hand actually isn't that interesting except to show how big swings can be in these games. J straddles for $200, a pro with $1700 limps (I know he's jamming over a raise), I make it $800, J calls, pro jams, I 4-bet pot to $5800 total with AAT8, J flats.

Flop AQ4, pot $13400
I lead for $11,000 with $9000 behind... J goes into the tank for a couple minutes while talking... my hand is pretty obviously AAxx, he says he has a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw... calculates that he doesn't have enough equity but he says he really wants to call anyway just to bust me... Board runs out, I hold up vs. the shortstack but J would have hit backdoor spades!

So yea... that would have been a $36k swing if he had decided to call there. Poker is a funny thing sometimes.

Despite the game still being good, I got up because I was uncomfortable with that much money on the table and I knew I'd be happy if I left. And I am happy, eating my $5 footlong from Subway

Played 5 hours, up $17265. I was actually down ~$10k (two $5k buyins) at one point and on my last $9k bullet which I got in AIPF with AAT4r and held up vs. J's "any 4 cards", so yea if I had lost that AIPF flip that also be a $36k swing for today... heh.

LA total: $65303, 345 hours.

Just call me "bankroll on the table" Aesah (J covered me so this was legit all in play!):

I thought of you and your line w AAxx today at a 2/5/10 PLO game. I have $1k and everyone covers. I am UTG and limp AcAh4c6s and it gets pot to $110 and 2 flats. I 99% pot here but I think "I dont have strong AA's and I can under-rep my hand OOP and check shove flops". 1 more caller comes along, pot is $450.

Flop Kc 8s 6c

I check and MP checks and raiser bets $400 and it folds to me and I obviously shove. Now hu and the board runs out 9xjx and he turns over 987J for 2 pair!

Swingy game for sure. I am running extra bad but I think I NEED to repot this hand preflop.

Yea that's definitely a preflop re-pot spot, you can make it like $550 and if anyone calls you have SPR = ~0.3 so basically almost as good as AIPF. In my hand I would have had about SPR = ~6 vs. a tough player OOP if I re-pot and he calls though.

If results-oriented is any consolation, he probably would have went with that hand preflop anyway heh.

Is it common to use another casinos chips at the table in LA? Have only played in the states in Vegas and this was a definite no no. Will they just give you cash at the cage for an Aria chip at the bike? seems odd.

enjoy the blog. i guess ill have to try LA poker.

No it's super rare. However when a VIP like J walks in, the casino does everything they can to cater to him. For example if he gets dealt out of a hand from walking we let him take 4 cards off the top of deck as long as preflop action hasn't completed, etc. If anyone else gets dealt out of a hand TOUGH LUCK . But yea, stuff like that.

I swear if he asked for one of hot blackjack dealers to give him a massage he probably would have got it.

Sick session dude. I can't even imagine a game that big.

Congrats on getting over $50k AND $60k in the same session!!

Holy **** you run good

haha yea I remember like every single time I got close to $30k I kept losing. Breaking 2 benchmarks at once = awesome.

Also, yea it's even hard for me to imagine. I remember after I was down $10k then came back and had like $30k, I was thinking... damn I have more on the table right now than I'm going to make in an entire year's worth of part-time work for the FDA wtf.

basically this

Thx for the comments guys!

oh I just realized you said "where do you" and not "where did you"... I will write a PLO guide here for you for my 1k post. I guess other people can read it too

Basically if you don't push this edge you are giving away money. Of course the truth is you have to flip someone for a 1000 bucks to get the 40. Some people would pass obviously if they only have 2000 dollars to their name and some people don't realize they gave away 40 bucks to not flip.

But this is what makes PLO an enormously swingy game.

Same thing with aces it makes sense to build huge pots to push a decent sized edge (like 12 percent precent which is pretty big.) but i have always wondered when im going to shove anything under a pot sized bet heads up if im creating equity for my opponent (which would make my edge even smaller -i.e. i can jam my aces into a flopped monster whereas he can fold sometimes when he misses bad.)

But I really do think its a weakness of opponents to not push preflop edges but the upswings and downswings it produces is huge. i.e. if you can keep pot committing aces its not that easy to lose 4 in a row or 8 out of 10 and you don't necessarily get it back right away.

ooo Anxiously awaiting

Btw awesome session @ 25/50 PLO

Just bc it seems that this hand gets more talk here. I ran this:


Ok, here it goes. I havent done this much math both ways on a hand in a long time. I guess I should start.

SHOVE:

If we shove and both players fold.
Risk $750 to win $1890=40%
Vs a 10% range we have 44.5%

+4.5%


4.5% of 1890=$85.05





FLAT both player fold:

If we flat and both players fold.
$540+90+90+90+450=1260
Risk $450 to win $1260=35%
Vs a 10% range we have 44.5%

+9.5%

9.5% of 1260=$119.70


Flat and 1 caller:

If we flat and we get 1 call and 1 fold.
$540+90+90+90+450+450=1710
Risk $450 to win 1710=26%
Vs Villian 1 10% and assume V2 is wider at 20% we have 32.5% equity

+6.5%

6.5% of 1710=$111.15






FLAT and 2 callers:

If we flat the bet and both limpers come along.
$540+90+90+90+450+450+450=$2160
Risk $450 to win 2160=21%
Vs V1 10%-V2 20%-and V3 wider at 25% we have 26.2% equity

+5.2%

5.2% of 2160=$112.32



There is no way that I know of to include fold equity or implied equity. Obviously we need to win the hands and play the flop or other streets if we just flat and get callers.

i did not mean to derail thread by talking about that hand but point is pushing preflop edges is good its just enormously swingy. i just believe its possible to know what your edge is preflop in a game but postflop dynamics make calculating your equity sort of not possible. (i.e. you can put a dollar value on a shove preflop with some certainty but you cannot postflop - another reason why pushing preflop edges is not so horrible.)

i guess my question is that say you could put in half your stack with AA preflop and you know the other half is going in post (heads up) does this give you an even smaller edge with the AA??? (i.e. your opponent can fold and you cannot)

so say you are 62 - 38 preflop is that edge reduced even more because you probably should put in the rest of your stack with AA? (of course in the real world your big pot range preflop should not be AA only - the good online players 3 bet way more frequently than live players.)

but yeah pushing preflop edges in omaha is good but the upswings and downswings are enormous related to it.

ooh I didn't realize you had posted in the other thread cap217, I'll respond there. The A985ds hand can be discussed here:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...shove-1310367/

I feel like I'm repeating myself, but to break it down most simply, at any given time in poker we have 3 options. Fold, Call, or Raise. You should do whichever you think gives you the MOST +EV, even if one of the other options is also +EV (using the model where folding is always 0 EV). In the A985ds hand it's raising, in the AA42ss hand it's calling.

On the other hand, if we had something like 9622r in either situation, then neither calling OR raising would be +EV, they would be -EV, so folding would be the "most +EV" at 0 EV.

tyty!

Not to brag or anything, but I always get a weird feeling reading your thread because I feel like you're a better PLO player than I am, but I'm making so much more money... live PLO is the nuts?

(well actually, /rungood is the nuts )

also have a PM for you.

I would really like to explore the 2 hands and the equities given the action and ranges. I think that the opposite is true of each hand. I think the math shows that calling is more +EV with less money at risk. But I really would like to tear apart these hands.

I don't understand why you keep saying less money at risk in the A985 hand, I am never, ever, folding any flop with that hand so the exact same amount of money is at risk- villain's stack.

I think I already gave a pretty clear explanation of why I can't 3-bet the AA42 hand- it blows the fish out of the pot. In fact I wouldn't even 3-bet AAJTds here because even if there's a hand value edge against the opening raiser, that's not as big of an edge of letting the fishies into the pot. See post #816 in this thread.

I say less $ at risk bc of this:

SHOVE:

If we shove and both players fold.
Risk $750 to win $1890=40%
Vs a 10% range we have 44.5%

+4.5%


4.5% of 1890=$85.05





FLAT both player fold:

If we flat and both players fold.
$540+90+90+90+450=1260
Risk $450 to win $1260=35%
Vs a 10% range we have 44.5%

+9.5%

9.5% of 1260=$119.70




If we flat and both players fold. We actually have more equity. Now I understand that you are saying there is no flop that you are folding so what is the difference?

Ok

If we assume that there is no flop that we are folding (due to stack sizes) then how can we calculate this? I dont know the answer to that. But we can caluclate preflop easily (above) for both shoving and calling. I guess we would have to do a postflop equity analysis that is impossibe to do due to not knowing what the flop will be!!!!

I guess we can run a min equity on flops vs 10% range. This would be 65% equity on 10% of flops. And 40% equity on 50% of flops. ANd 20% equity on 90% of flops. So we have to assume 40% equity on 10% of flops vs 10% range.




PS

I am done with this hand in this thread. Back to the other thread for this hand.

I honestly have absolutely no idea what you're talking about lol. I've said this over and over that neither one of us will fold the flop, either one of us only needs 17% equity due to stack sizes.

Therefore, in the situation where it goes HU to the flop, my EV of the hand is almost exact same* as shoving preflop. (In fact if you want to get REALLY technical about it, postflop actually favors his unknown hand since he might fold something like 9864ds on AAA and we lose value, but this is so marginal it's not worth calculating.)

*In other words, the effect of postflop play on EV in this hand is probably** less than +/- $1, so we can safely ignore it. There is no need for that graph.

**and by probably, I mean I'm like 99.99% sure.

I feel like I'm just repeating myself at this point, PM me if you have any more questions about this hand.

Someone recently asked me a question about showing hands at the table. This is something I used to talk about back in CLE, but haven't really given much thought to recently.

Honestly, I don't think it makes a huge difference one way or another, but I think showing "weirdly played" hands leans towards being a good thing, especially bluffs. 90%+ of players hate folding and I cannot stress that enough (I mean, can't win if you fold!), and if they can convince themselves that you somehow have a bluff in any spot they'll often level themselves into calling even if they're good enough to look back at it tomorrow and be like "yea that's a fold vs. his range". This is assuming you make the majority of your profits from blue line and therefore want callers in big pots, which would be basically 100% of live professionals.

I fall into that 90%+ myself.

I've been trying to weigh the importance of fold equity in preflop exploitation and flop cbet spots versus the value of getting paid postflop with big hands. Quantity versus quality, basically.

I have no idea which is more important and I thought it was interesting that you like to show since most players don't, especially since you love 3betting and 4betting pretty light.

I think I'll try showing all my bluffs for awhile and seeing if that augments my winrate.

I personally like to have a bluffy image, I will show my cards etc.

Reason why: When i'm in a big pot I would rather get called down lighter to get value. Instead of blowing people off thier hands with my tight image.

You need to learn more about plo equity preflop is NOT the only thing to take into account in three bet pots, and is defi itely not the most important. You should look into the flop ability of cards in 3 and 4 bet pots.

I suggest you read the donk r articles for the mathematics.

Also u can't work out the EV without the flopabiltity.