This hand is from a thread going on in another forum. It seems like i am getting some backlash as to my comments on leaning towards a fold pre. I am personally trying to tighten up preflop, especially oop so i could be wrong here.


Villian has $840 total, its at the bike, hero covers and sees the table as weak.

Hero has a985ds in ep and opens to $90 (not sure of stakes, this could be a straddle or 20/40 to open to 90, this info wasnt given). 2 callers and then Villian 3 bets and its back to hero who shoves $840 eff. He is sure other callers will fold when he pots it.

He assumes villian has a 10% hand. Hero says he needs 40% equity and stoves that he has 44.5%. Is it worth a shove to have 4.5% ev here all in preflop?

I said that there could be way better spots to get chips in. Its not worth it here. But hero says that if its +ev he is pushing his edge.


Am i wrong to say its a fold pre? The more i think about it i think it can be a limp-call pre at best. Thoughts?

Sorry, you're wrong. A 4.5% edge is quite significant and if you are folding you are leaving far too much money on the table.

Limp-call pre seems bad too. We have a strong hand that plays well both HU and multiway and want to build a pot with it not to mention give ourselves the opportunity to take down the blinds/straddles pre or the pot on the flop with a continuation bet.

you realise its not an "either or" situation? you dont have to take this edge OR the possible bigger one down the road, you can take both.

Yeah if this is our final buy-in in poker its theoretically a fold but you should still gamble. Having more buyins mean that the argument of there being bigger edges down the line is irrelevant. It would be slightly less irrelevant if this were a tourny.

Its also not necessarily a jam or fold spot. Against what proportion of top 10% hands are we far enough ahead to call a jam on flops like TTQr (not necessarily a q for op, i'm genuinely curious)? Can villain ever c/f on bad boards for him or is he jamming 100% of flops? The size of villains 3b is crucial here. Lets also not forget that a villain 3bing 10% of his hands in this spot will have a significantly different range of hands to what ppt gives us as a 10% range. That would make it less of a fold pre and more of a call, depending on whether he now includes hands like 89TJss in his range and still jams them. If he does both then we should fistpumpjam pre. If he pumps pre and then c/fs for example KK2r then we should just call. Not that I would expect that to happen very often.

You are going to get owned so badly when one the 2 callers you view as weak smashes it back in your face with slowplayed AAxx. You said it yourself the table is weak so them smoothing Aces goes up a lot.

also what if one of the callers flips over JT98 and "can't fold such a good drawing hand" with all the money out there.

this is money on fire at its finest.

I agree w this line of thinking but the first reply says that this is a spot to play and push your edge. I'm confused bc I said 4.5% at best according to hero.

So in your opinion, with what was described, you repot this hand? Do you flat and play multiway? Are you opening this hand in Ep?

i think youre mixing up two questions - 1) do we have an edge? 2) if yes, should we take it or wait for a bigger one? i interpreted your post as asking question 2) while assuming that the answer to 1) is a given. if you want to talk about how the hand shouldve been played, thats a different question to "ive run the math of this scenario and getting it in offers us a 4.5pc edge, is that big enough?"

The keys to this hand are callers' frequencies. How often are they trapping with AAxx? How often will they fold KKxx? QJT8? etc, etc..

Obviously if both of them fold 100% then 4-betting is optimal.

I disagree on both counts

$750 to win $1140 so he needs 40% equity. He has 44.5% equity vs a 10% hand.

Are we really shoving in this spot? 44.5% is best case scenario.

This is the question I am asking with given info from the player. I don't think open 4 bet shoving is the best line here bless we know villain very well and he doesn't care about money.

It sucks that you didn't tell us your stack size vs the two callers because if you're deep you simply can't justify potting this here with such a marginally strong hand with people left behind you and money left behind. The fact you are getting the right odds to flip vs the all in guy is trivial compared to jamming and really f***ing up against the two guys im between.

I haven't done the numbers but off the top of my head if the guys in between have a min raise left then fine i agree that jamming is good but expect people to gamble anyways. If they have say $2k+ on top of the raise youre burning up money getting it in badly for sure as its such an obvious iso raise.

I think if you are sitting deep with the two callers a flat call is best as people will call bad hands and make huge mistakes post flop on boards you gladly get it in with one pair + draw against their ****tier one pairs.

Since when is smoothing AA29 rainbow weak?

As for the hand, it's anything but a push. Sure our hand is marginally strong but doesn't warrant a push, with 2 people who could possibly come along with a much better or slightly better Axxx

He said stacks sizes were short.

I dont think smoothing Aces is weak at all Im just saying weaker live players are more likely to smooth Aces than many other types. The fact he considers his opponents weak raises the possibility he did get flatted by strong hands since people just love "to see a flop" before they put money in.

Hi guys this is my hand. I think open raising this hand was a mistake... but getting past that part, assuming I've already done so:

I was able to open to $90 since a new player posted in MP or whatever. The 2 callers were both short fishies playing literally 99% VPIP, so I think if they had AAxx they would have just 3bet themselves with SPR ~1 going to the flop. That's the main reason I was pretty sure they would fold, but also lol-livetells with people holding their cards over the muck.

The 44.5% equity number comes from using a calculator with my hand against a top10% range. I don't necessarily think this is "best case scenario", as the shortstack who jammed* seemed like a decent player so he should also realize that HE only needs 40% against any 1 player due to dead money assuming he always gets HU, but in reality he might just win it preflop A LOT so perhaps he's jamming much wider here, in fact he would be correct to jam insanely wide in this spot.

*He made it like ~$500 with $340 behind, so this is basically equivalent to a shove, no?

Also I realize I should have included more of this info to begin with... sorry about that.

~~~~

Regarding the option of just flat calling, if everyone else folds we have SPR < 0.25. However we may encourage multi-way action. I personally have absolutely no clue if multi-way action is a good thing or not but I assume I'd rather have the dead money.

Theres no way its a mistake to open this hand from any position on any table.

Secondly, never assume fold equity preflop in this game and never assume other people think they have fold equity.

Thanks for coming into the thread....

I didnt realize the 3 bet was that big with so little behind. Your hand vs a 10% range is 44.5%. If we add in a 20% hand and its now 3-way your equity goes to 32.5 vs 36.3 (10%) vs 31.0 (20%).

If we add 1 more player at a wider 25% range then its 26.2% vs 27.2 (10%) vs 23.7 (20%) vs 22.9 (25%). This is assuming that ranges get wider as there are more caller in front of them.

If you run equity simulations, you will see that its almost always better to iso HU. I havent figured out when its better to play multiway pots yet but I guess having marginal hands IP is when its ok with a lot of dead money.

I much much much much rather have 32% 3 way all in than 44.5% HU.

26% 4 way is even better.

In this case with dead money math works out to something like both call > both fold > one call. Which makes sense, our hand (NFD) draws well multiway.

In game I probably ship to be totally honest but mathematically it's not really debatable calling to induce two calls from guys with like 99% VPIP is probably most profitable.

I guess if we are going to debate HU vs 3-way vs 4-way, we will need to figure out how much will be in the pot.

Ok, here it goes. I havent done this much math both ways on a hand in a long time. I guess I should start.

SHOVE:

If we shove and both players fold.
Risk $750 to win $1890=40%
Vs a 10% range we have 44.5%

+4.5%


4.5% of 1890=$85.05





FLAT both player fold:

If we flat and both players fold.
$540+90+90+90+450=1260
Risk $450 to win $1260=35%
Vs a 10% range we have 44.5%

+9.5%

9.5% of 1260=$119.70


Flat and 1 caller:

If we flat and we get 1 call and 1 fold.
$540+90+90+90+450+450=1710
Risk $450 to win 1710=26%
Vs Villian 1 10% and assume V2 is wider at 20% we have 32.5% equity

+6.5%

6.5% of 1710=$111.15






FLAT and 2 callers:

If we flat the bet and both limpers come along.
$540+90+90+90+450+450+450=$2160
Risk $450 to win 2160=21%
Vs V1 10%-V2 20%-and V3 wider at 25% we have 26.2% equity

+5.2%

5.2% of 2160=$112.32



There is no way that I know of to include fold equity or implied equity. Obviously we need to win the hands and play the flop or other streets if we just flat and get callers.

I would just assume the guy jams for $840, if 2 people flat it's like a $1500 pot with $350 behind for everyone

Did you read the post above with the math before posting this? Or is this in response to my earlier post?

Nobody said anything about the math above. Is it correct? How can we calculate FE and IE and all that? I know Sauce123 did some stuff over at RIO but his analysis gets way more in depth than I can get.