If you really want me to adjust the numbers I am happy to but it won't change much. My sim was conservative not the other way. Where did OP say that somebody was raising 80% behind? If thats the case my argument only becomes stronger.

Firstly there are 2 limpers. utg1, and V1. V2 is the PFR. The BB is negligible. He will have AA less than 1% of the time with card removal.

So lets say that the limpers dont raise AA at all given the V2 has a really high PFR%. That means they now have all 1.25% combos of AA. However it now means that if V2 has a PFR of 50% he now has AA only 2.5% of time. If the limpers are limping everything they play with a VPIP of 35% they have AA 3.1% of time. BB has it <1% given card removal of limpers ranges and PFR ranges but I'll use 1.0%.

3.1 +3.1+1.0+2.5= 9.7% total AA

It becomes lower for a 2 reasons. a) The limpers are limping everything they play if they expect player behind to iso 80%. b) If V2 is iso'ing that wide, AA wont comprise much of his range at all.

** I think most limp everything villains will have a vpip>35% so that makes their AA less likely. Its inverse relation to how often limpers have AA and how often PFR has it so it wont change overall frequencies much.

Straight from Odds Oracle: You will run into AA 12.6%



edit:I believe Odds Oracle shows a higher frequency than I calculated becasue when you assign a 35% range for example to a player it isn't assigning a 35%vpip, the 35% represents top35% of hands thus once you have removed AQQT a range of top 35% hands is actually a vpip of 21.39% as shown below.

Omaha Hi Hand Count
dead cards: adqsqhtd
Hand Optimized Count Base Count
35% 57912 (21.39%) 94739 (34.99%)

Cliffs: Even if villains are limping AA everytime you wont run into it enough to dissuade you from 3betting AQQTds. Most people let alone poker players (including myself) don't like to openly change their minds on a subject so maybe all this was futile. Regardless, no loss given I like doing these empirical proofs anyway as a learning and confirmation process.

Didn't see the call me if you want to talk about it more part till now. ditto.

Update with girl mentioned in first post of this thread (who I dated for a year): I kept slipping back into not being over her so I talked to her tonight and got her to agree to remove all forms of contact with each other for awhile so I can get over her for good. Was my decision but feeling pretty down about that (she has been my best friend for the past 4 years).

I've got 27 days until I *must* be in Florida. Thinking about maybe flying out of the country, haven't decided.

WHELP, super spontaneous 2 week vacation by myself booked to Hong Kong. Will return to Little Rock on the 27th, rest, then drive to Florida and arrive on the 29th.

Am excited.

Sounds like a ton of fun!

Must be nice to pick up an go to Hong Kong for a couple weeks haha. Have fun over there sounds like a great trip!!

Def spend 2-3 nights in Macau.

I suggest spending your first couple nights in a hostel if your going alone.

Go post in Asia travel thread, Few PLO grinders I think.

Haggle everything

This.

Do you speak any Chinese?

And... that is why to play poker for a living! . ... "I'm bored, let's go to Hong Kong"

55 minute ferry ride to Macau??? Can't wait to hear those stories

Hopefully they play 1 card NLHE...I hear you run pretty pure in that game

haha I wish I spoke Chinese better. Pretty poorly, might as well be "no". Will be embarassing

I don't know how to haggle I am gonna get thin value bet to death I already feel it.

great threadsavers. and thx for the posts. as a guy 2x your age, I'd say keep the job, play poker on the side like you've been doing, only consider quitting if 2 years of poker income outdoes your salary. if you're a good player you could BR up to buyins at tourneys that could add up to a lot, compared to cash game grinding.

keep the job, really.

asian women are great, I used to date a miss chinatown, my wife's from japan. and I listen to k-pop on my sansa when I'm playing cash games in casinos (girls' generation, f(x)).

bonus points to who else knows what "iku iku" means, lol

One request for your trip: a photograph of you in intense negotiations with a street vendor over the price of a live chicken. I'm picturing the guy getting all riled up to the point of making the chicken freak out, so be sure to keep lowballing him. Also, you are attempting to pay him in $1 poker chips. It would be the greatest photo ever posted on this site. Thank you in advance.

^ lol wtf

Oh, no problem! I'll give you some tips (I spent a year living in Southern China, right near HK).

So first of all, being Asian will probably be an advantage, even though you'll be speaking English. As a white Jew, I was usually offered a high tourist price for everything I bought.

Here's how I saved lots of money by haggling:

Step 1: Establish what you're considering buying, and ask, “How much?” This will also establish that the conversation will be in English.
Step 1a. If you're buying merchandise (rather than a service), you want to physically handle whatever you're considering buying. Act like you're testing the quality of the object.

Step 2: Act moderately offended by the price the salesman offers. This can be really subtle. Raise your eyebrows, like you were expecting a much lower number. Take a step back, and start to look elsewhere (away from the salesman), as if you're considering taking your business elsewhere.

Step 3: Now make your counter-offer. As a general rule of thumb, offer about 40% of the quoted price. However, if you;re unwilling to pay 40%, you can certainly start lower. The real objective here is to find the salesman's bottom line. I've offered 20% before and been successful. But low-balling requires commitment; it's a lot like bluffing-- we need to convince the salesman that we aren't willing to budge.

Step 4: The salesman is going to refuse. Then he or she will proceed to add value to the object, ie. “This is real jade,” or “This is handmade,” etc.

Step 5: Shake your head, and re-offer your number. This is an important moment, as we need to sell our 'bluff.' We are not willing to pay more than our number.

Step 6: The salesman is going to meet you somewhere in the middle. They offered 100 HKD, you said 40 HKD, now he's going to offer you a number between 40 and 100.

Step 7: If the number is something stupid like 80 or 90, just smile like you're genuinely amused by the ridiculous offer, and indicate that you're going to leave. There's a good chance you'll receive a better offer at this point. If they offer something like 60, you should refuse. You have the upper hand at this point, as they have indicated that they are willing to play your game. Stand by your number. If you reach a standstill, offer a slight increase, like 50, or just pay the 60 if you're comfortable with this number.

Using this strategy, I never payed the initial price for anything. Whenever the salesman refused to negotiate, I would just move on to the next salesman. It is very rare to find any unique items-- more than one salesman will be selling the exact same merchandise.

I don't plan on buying much besides food but who knows

Thanks for the comments!

Are you going to play PLO in Macau?

I was under the impression it doesn't run regularly

+1

not planning on playing much poker. we'll see.

lol i guess i'll try my best to get that picture.

god i freaking hate planes and airports (but mostly planes). had my layover flight delayed 2 hours but got transferred to an earlier flight that was also delayed which gave me 5 minutes to sprint to my next flight. made it though! stressed, exhausted and just relaxing in the hotel room now (it's 9 PM over here at the moment).

will probably just rest tonight and adventure tomorrow.

Wishing you safe travels Aesah!

Post pics of HK please

Have fun man! and ditto on the pics
also this:
made me lol

+2

love it machi5

also check out tim ferriss latest blog on HK on a budget. might be worthwhile

http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog...ork-hong-kong/