Nice 👍

it's actually THE MOST bluffed size of all the sizings I see for this line in my sample.

MDA Tip. If you are going to try to say you have a flush, don't bet small OTR. Great line for value though

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.1% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Cold Call: 9.2% | Hands: 319863]
BTN ($215.51) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 17]
SB ($203.95) [VPIP: 26.9% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 43.8% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 27]

Dealt to Hero: A 3

BTN Folds, SB Raises To $6, HERO Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($12): 9 A 3
SB Bets $8 (Rem. Stack: $189.95), HERO Calls $8 (Rem. Stack: $186)

Turn ($28): 9 A 3 4
SB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($28): 9 A 3 4 Q
SB Bets $10 (Rem. Stack: $179.95), HERO Raises To $44.95 (Rem. Stack: $141.05), SB Raises To $189.95 (allin), HERO Calls $141.05 (allin)

Good example of when to make massive deviations from a solver. This is an over 34bb mistake in a solver but calling is a complete punt.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($278.38) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.1% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 320050]
SB ($208.26) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 38.5% | Flop Agg: 60% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 25% | 3Bet: 16.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 21]
BB ($200) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 8]
UTG ($123.24) [VPIP: 64.1% | PFR: 7.7% | AGG: 21.1% | Hands: 39]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 34.5% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 17.6% | Hands: 29]
CO ($131.94) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 10.7% | AGG: 46.7% | Hands: 28]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Raises To $20, BB Folds, HERO Calls $15

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.48 effective]
Flop ($42): 3 K 3
SB Bets $13.17 (Rem. Stack: $175.09), HERO Calls $13.17 (Rem. Stack: $245.21)

Turn ($68.34): 3 K 3 T
SB Bets $48.70 (Rem. Stack: $126.39), HERO Calls $48.70 (Rem. Stack: $196.51)

River ($165.74): 3 K 3 T K
SB Bets $126.39 (allin), HERO Folds

u don’t think 200regs will find the bluffs?

I don't have exact data but I have middle card pairing OTR in 3bet pots in triple barrel line and it's way underbluffed. I'm assuming top card is even more underbluffed.

It looks like I have a King when I call turn.

My favorite movie

You're gonna learn today

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($282) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.1% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 320270]
BB ($216.26) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 60% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 25% | Hands: 23]
UTG ($200) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 20]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 34.8% | PFR: 21.7% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 23]
CO ($106) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 7]
BTN ($223.40) [VPIP: 31.8% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 23]

Dealt to Hero: A 4

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.52 effective]
Flop ($12): Q 4 J
HERO Bets $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $273.15), BB Calls $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $207.41)

Turn ($17.70): Q 4 J Q
HERO Checks, BB Bets $21 (Rem. Stack: $186.41), HERO Calls $21 (Rem. Stack: $252.15)

River ($59.70): Q 4 J Q 8
HERO Checks, BB Bets $60 (Rem. Stack: $126.41), HERO Calls $60 (Rem. Stack: $192.15)

I try to remind myself there will always be hands/days like this in poker, it's inevitable. A good mental exercise to avoid victim mentality is to zoom out and look at your month/year graph. Let's keep grinding.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($242.63) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Fold to 4Bet: 56.8% | Hands: 320629]
SB ($70.31) [VPIP: 25.9% | PFR: 13.8% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 59]
BB ($204.53) [VPIP: 24% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 23.1% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 8.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 51]
CO ($91.35) [VPIP: 13.6% | PFR: 6.8% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 45]

Dealt to Hero: A K

CO Folds, HERO Raises To $6, SB Calls $5, BB Raises To $30, HERO Raises To $71, SB Folds, BB Calls $41

Hero SPR on Flop: [0.9 effective]
Flop ($148): 4 K 7
BB Checks, HERO Bets $36.25 (Rem. Stack: $135.38), BB Raises To $133.53 (allin), HERO Calls $97.28 (Rem. Stack: $38.10)

Turn ($415.06): 4 K 7 J

River ($415.06): 4 K 7 J 4



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 320629]
BTN ($206.70) [VPIP: 17.6% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 51]
BB ($236.11) [VPIP: 49.2% | PFR: 39% | AGG: 53.3% | Flop Agg: 64.7% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 5.9% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 30% | Hands: 60]
UTG ($200) [VPIP: 24% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 23.1% | Hands: 51]
HJ ($97) [VPIP: 13.6% | PFR: 6.8% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 45]

Dealt to Hero: A A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BTN Folds, BB Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($12): 9 3 4
BB Bets $6 (Rem. Stack: $224.11), HERO Raises To $24 (Rem. Stack: $170), BB Calls $18 (Rem. Stack: $206.11)

Turn ($60): 9 3 4 6
BB Checks, HERO Bets $42.75 (Rem. Stack: $127.25), BB Calls $42.75 (Rem. Stack: $163.36)

River ($145.50): 9 3 4 6 4
BB Checks, HERO Bets $127.25 (allin), BB Calls $127.25 (Rem. Stack: $36.11)

You play any zone or just reg tables? What times do you generally play?

Yeah, looking at long-term graph is one of the best mental game strategies I know.

Sometimes I lose a couple of buyins and feel like ****, and then I look at the long-term graph and it barely registers as a blip.

Just reg tables.

I play all times basically, hardest times from my experience are mornings.

My old CFP did a study on winrates on Bodog based on time of day which is pretty cool to look at:

Weird, but I don't know for sure which countries (other than the LATAM ones) play on Bodog. I heard somewhere asians also play on the same pool. In my experience playing pokerstars, my winrate doubles in my night sessions after 6PM GMT (BRT + 3). Maybe too many CFP players from Brazil hurting their own winrates by playing the same times hahah, I always told you grow those beasts too much and the whole thing is just unsustainable, a big house of cards

I need to look into this spot more, I think I should of called here in retrospect.

Will get HH tomorrow

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($226.93) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.2% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 320815]
HJ ($241.85) [VPIP: 30.4% | PFR: 28.3% | AGG: 41.7% | Hands: 47]
CO ($200) [VPIP: 4.9% | PFR: 2.4% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 41]
BTN ($181.74) [VPIP: 34.5% | PFR: 24.1% | AGG: 53.3% | Hands: 32]
SB ($313.43) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 6.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 35]

Dealt to Hero: K 5

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $6, HERO Raises To $20, SB Calls $14

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.17 effective]
Flop ($40): A K 9
SB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($40): A K 9 9
SB Bets $56 (Rem. Stack: $237.43), HERO Folds

Thanks for sharing that. Surprised it is so low between 1600-2200. I thought that was prime time. I guess I need to stay up later.

I would fold. He isn't repping anything but A9, but we should have a ton of better hands to call with. Lots of 9x, Millions of weak Ax offsuit that we 3b pre with a club. No blockers and no way to improve to a better hand makes it a bad call, especially when we have tons of this type of hand. Gotta keep in mind how wide our range is when we are using a polar 3b strategy with a ton of offsuit combos. They get out of hand quickly.

anything but A9? he could easily play a flush like this too

I think most people fold here but I don't think it's correct. Ax doesn't play this way and a lot of flushes are blocked by the board.

I expect high frequency QJs/QTs/JTs after thinking about this hand a bit.

Will post results tomorrow.

I think in general people just way overfold everywhere. Take a look at that A4cc hand for example, if you put that hand on the microstakes forum like 90% of regs (maybe higher?) will say it's a fold OTT/OTR because "everything got there."

And that is just categorically incorrect for both player profiles when you comb over the data.

idt a flush is going to want to overbet here.

He's allowed to have bluffs here, but we have so many combos of bluff catchers, we can be selective and not get runover. We have like 70 combos of top pair and 2nd pair.

I don't think we can start using GTO language when the turn sizing is not in a GTO node.

You are never supposed to OB here OTT, I have more nutted hands than OOP. OBing doesn't make any sense.

Because of that I think we should call with our bluff catchers. Especially knowing what I know about MDA and turn probes in SBvsBB 3bp formation.

MDA here.



I'll get results in 24hrs as I am curious to see if my read is correct.

Do these types of hands happen relatively infrequently for you?

Just wondering because I probably run AK into AA about once or twice a session pretty much every day and I don't really play that high volume.

I wish I had the comfort of looking at a long term winning graph.

The A4 hand seems pretty clear because on his line he has like literally no value unless he's a major button clicker.

Curious why we don't c bet this flop?

cuz BB is supposed to play a polar strat

No value in the A4 hand?

Value hands the solver plays this way at some frequency: Q8, Q4, 44, flushes, straight, KQ (altough the solver prefers a 0.6x bet with KQ).

I'm talking about most people not a clairvoyant computer playing itself.

Also he blocks 4x, KQ mostly 3bets pf along w/ a lot of the flushes and weaker Qx typically isn't playing this way. A lot of the straights start bluffing on the flop as well.