Can you elaborate on this a bit? I can think of some reasons why it could matter some but there is a good chance I am wrong or they don't matter much. Can reply later with my thoughts, on my phone now.

I understand this from a standpoint of how most risk of ruin formulas are calculated - using big blinds per hour, standard deviation per hour, etc. But, if we're playing deeper, doesn't that increase our SD/hr somewhat significantly? All of our coolers, good and bad, are going to be that much bigger. That won't impact our $/hr expectation, because it all evens out in the long run mathematically, but it does make us more likely to go through bigger short term swings - good and bad.

Am I missing something? Perhaps that we can adjust our buyin size as needed to handle swings?

I missed this one in the flurry of posts. So, in other words, higher expected win rate offsets increased variance. That makes sense. I'm actually about to start making my standard buyin $1K in 2/5 games that allow it, as so far I've been buying in for $500 99% of the time.

I don't think I've ever had a swing that big in a session of live poker. That's pretty crazy... Even with a 100BB buyin you're talking losing $4K in a session of $2/5. It can happen, but it shouldn't happen often at all for a strong winning player.

Playing long sessions in high variance games might contribute, but if you're somewhat routinely having eight buyin downswings in a single session, you likely have some major leaks (perhaps when deepstacked?) that are contributing.

This makes sense. I had close to the same thoughts as your post before this one but increased winrate probably offsets those factors.

I am at Aria right now playing with your baseball player from your Vegas write up. Real fun guy. I didnt know who he was and he got me for a buck on a throwing prop bet lol.

There was someone in our game who didn't recognize him either... I'm amazed, I figured he was pretty recognizable to this day. He's definitely a nice guy and fun to hang out with and play some cards.

I am definitely never leaving this table. He even has the nits gambling it up.

Atsai I would change "AT MOST" to "AT MINIMUM" and that's a good rough guide for the average pro. stack depth, frequency of straddles, and the player pool does impact variance quite severely

this makes me shudder but i basically agree with everything ATsai said

i think cuse and i have had this bankroll conversation privately a million times and i dont think anyone is gonna change his mind tbh lol, gotta do what floats your own boat

think the higher variance that comes from playing deeper can be marginalized by your increased skill edge. i think skill edge is going to be exponentially greater the deeper you are up to a certain point, right?

edit: also imo, there arent too many times where you're on the losing side of a cooler as opposed to when you're on the winning side of it in live poker because people are really passive, and when they're really deep they dont like to put their stack in as the aggressor without the nuts; like you can make some exploitable folds is my point to avoid what would be coolers.

Bankroll and life roll are often used interchangeably but aren't truly synonyms. The goal of any good poker pro is to move up ASAP to maximize your winrate. To play 2/5 1k I think a 50k life roll is required but you defintely don't need 50k to start shot taking.

The Kelly criterion is basically a full proof method to max gambling value and to ignore it as you are moving up is just as bad as having big poker leaks. It's just a different sort of leak.

my thoughts on the bankroll are simple: better safe than sorry.

maybe $35K is enough. maybe it isn't. $50K certainly gives him a much, much bigger buffer.

where are you going to play $5/$10. doesn't seem to run in philly area.

Thanks to everyone for the thoughts on bankroll - especially ATsai for his thoughts in here and 11t, who sent me a great analysis via pm.

Frequency of straddles is really important to consider - I play in some games where there can be a ton of straddling, which means I'm basically playing 5/10 instead of 2/5.

I'm definitely on the more conservative side with bankrolls, but this conversation with everyone has convinced me to be a little bit more aggressive. I also feel safer with my current roll than I expected to. I was laying out a plan of when I'd move up before I had put in a lot of 2/5 hours, and you won't know how you feel about the variance at a level until you put in some significant hours.

I think of a cooler as a hand you can't get away from with the current stack sizes regardless of skill. Set under set on a dry board is a cooler, for example.

This is a great point because the quicker we can move up, the more growth potential our roll has and the more we can outpace expenses.

I think 5/10 goes occasionally at SugarHouse, there's a 5/10 at the Borgata pretty often, I can shoot down to MDL sometimes, and Parx has the 10/10 once I'm even more rolled.

February Part 2 - Results for 2/12 to 2/19: “Back in this bitch, in the back of that bitch, with my back against the wall.”

Friday, February 13

I went to get in a game around 6, and as I sat down, some guy just got one outed. Technically he was two outed, but one out would have given them the bad beat jackpot… The one that hit did not. He proceeds to keep recounting the hand to the table for like an hour, and I’m sitting right next to him. I put my headphones on and try to ignore him. Once or twice, fine.. We all saw it, we don’t need to hear it on a loop for an hour!

I then get it in with KJ vs. KQ on QT7 when I raise a weak lead and he jams. I’m 99% sure I’m going to be priced in. “How much more? I probably have to call,” I say… He shows KQ. The dealer and I tell him I didn’t do anything yet. “You’re ahead, but I still probably have to call,” I tell him. He looks annoyed. The math is right, I call. Turn A, river A, he’s not happy.

I then ran a big river bluff on a whale and got him to fold and showed to induce future spew, but he spewed off $500 to someone else instead of me. Oh well, you can’t always be on the receiving end when you induce!

Hand No. 1

A whale limps and I make it $30 with KJ. A TAG calls on the button, the SB calls and everyone else folds.

Flop ($105): J42

It checks to me, I bet $55 and the button and SB call.

Turn ($270): 3

SB checks, I check, and the button bets $130. The SB folds and I tank and fold. This TAG has been playing pretty solidly and I’m not sure he’d bet QJ/JT/TT-88 here, and his range on the flop includes virtually no draws… So basically the bottom of his range is around AJ, and he can have sets. It’s a bit of a tight laydown for me, but against certain players I do have a fold button.

Hand No. 2

This hand is against the same villain. There’s a limp and I limp 33. The TAG raises to $30 in the HJ, the SB calls, the limper calls and I call.

Flop ($125): 832

It checks to me and I bet $75. The TAG calls and it folds around.

Turn ($275): 9

I check, he bets $180. I raise to $430. He thinks about 30 seconds and calls.

River ($1135): Q

He has about $475 behind. I tank and jam, he snap calls and my hand is good for a $2,100 pot from a TAG. After he left, a winning reg came over to me and was in shock the guy paid me off.



Results: +$2,275 in 8 hours, 14 minutes


Saturday, February 14

I got a decent night’s sleep, but not great, then hit up the Amphora Lounge brunch buffet for a lovely omelet to get some protein and get ready to go. Sometimes a good breakfast can offset a shaky night’s sleep. I got into a game, and and a very aggro image early. I’ve been 3betting a lot.

Hand No. 3

The villain has been pretty tight in the 40 minutes or so that the table has been open. I raise to $25 UTG with AA and he calls in LP.

Flop ($56): JT4

I bet $35, he calls.

Turn ($126): 7

I bet $75 and he raises to $225 with about $230 behind. I tank and fold. I don’t expect him to show up with any value that I beat here, except maybe an oddly played QQ or KQ reaping 89… But his range includes 89, JT, 44, 77, TT, JJ… So I hero fold the AA.

Hand No. 4

We’re $800 effective and I raise to $20 UTG with AA. MP calls and the SB calls.

Flop ($64): 652

Check, I bet $40, MP calls and the SB raises to $150. He has me covered. He’s been pretty straight forward TAG so far, and there’s a third player in the hand so he’s less likely to be bluffing. I suppose it’s possible he’s overplaying an overpair, but I think he’s far more likely to show up with 34, a set, 65, or a big combo draw. I don’t block the nut flush draw, so he can have all of that, but I still don’t think I have enough equity in this spot to get stacks in and I’m going to have to call down all of the barrels to get to showdown and the money is more likely to go in when I’m beat. I hero fold again… AA twice in under two hours and two hero folds.

The only thing that bothers me about this one is that I’m at the absolute top of my value range and I’m easily exploitable if I fold AA here. However, I can get it in with big club draws and have more consistent equity against his value range. I also wouldn’t make this fold against a lot of players.

Hand No. 5 - A Needle Rewarded?

EP raises to $15, a fish calls, a tilted nit calls and I make it $65 with AA from the blinds. I’ve pounced on squeeze spots a few times already, which may be in people’s mind. This is at a different table from the two AA folds earlier and people didn’t see them anyway, so that’s not a factor at all.

Everyone calls.

Flop ($265): Q83

I bet $115 and it folds to a nit on the button who calls. He’s tilted up a bit and I also gave him a needle an hour or two ago that I think he’s still angry about. He kept playing pots with hearts and complaining to the dealer that hearts were supposed to come on Valentine’s Day. Then, he lost his stack to a heart flush against someone else and I quipped, “There’s those hearts you kept asking for!” He gave me a long death stare… So I’m sure he remembers.

Turn ($495): T

We have about $700 left, and I’m debating whether I can get it all and be good… I don’t think I can. He never has KK here, he is unlikely to have QQ but might. He has his sets, and he has some Qx hands. He’s good enough to fold top pair and even though he’s seen me squeeze, he hasn’t seen me fire three barrels and not show up with the goods. So I decide we probably can’t get another $700 in. I bet $200. He tanks a while and calls.

River ($895): 4

Now we have about $500 left. Again I consider bombing it, but I still don’t think I’m going to be able to get him to pay off. I bet $275 and he tanks a long time. He glares at me and starts talking.

“Can’t beat aces, kings, or AQ… You raise over a bunch of people pre flop again… Do you really have AA?”

He tanks more and turns over KQ. I stare at the felt. He tanks some more and calls, and MHIG for the $1,400+ pot. I think I might have been able to get a TOUCH more.. Maybe $225 on the turn and $325 on the river… But I think the psychology of going over $300 may have been too much on the end. I’m pretty content that I got very close to max value from KQ there. I could conceivably bet stronger with KK there, because I don’t block AQ. Blocking AQ means he’s way more likely to have KQ which is less likely to pay off a big bet.

So we’ve got our hero folds working, our value extraction… Time to attempt a hero call?

Hand No. 6

Two limps and I make it $30 on the button with AQ Both limpers call.

Flop ($96): JT5

I checks through.

Turn ($96): 3x

It checks to me and I bet $55. This is a combo bet. I want to fold out 66-99 and extract value from KQ, 89, and clubs. There’s a fold and the other limper calls.

River ($206): T

The villain tanks and bets $150. I tank. I think this player would bet a T on the turn, and he’s been bluffy in weird spots with missed draws when he doesn’t rep anything. I tank and call, he mucks, I table as per Borgata rules, and get the oohs and ahhs of the hero call for the $500 pot.

”Time to run up a couple thou more and bury this thing!”

At this point I’m $13 from being out of my 400+ hours of negative variance. I’m tempted to get it and book the win, but I never book wins. Part of the reason it was so long was the big swings in some huge pots, and I’m not going to start avoiding some of my biggest +EV spots because I’m scared of variance.

I posted in one of my study groups… “Time to run up a couple thou more and bury this thing!”

Hand No. 7

There’s a limp and a fish raises to $20 and I call in the SB with 88. There are two other calls.

Flop ($80): KT8

I bet $50, it folds to the PFR who calls.

Turn ($180): T

I bet $95, villain raises to $300 with about $350 behind. I go into the tank and can’t decide whether to jam or flat. If I flat and a diamond hits, he may fold AK. If I flat and the diamond misses, but he was on the draw, he’ll fold. I could flat and check it to him, but he may check back AK or his missed draws. He probably won’t fold diamonds if I jam, but he COULD fold AK. He can also have Tx here for sure and he’s never folding that.

I decide shoving is best and rip it in, and he shrugs and calls. My hand is good for the roughly $1,500 pot. Some guy comments on my Hollywooding, but I act like I can’t hear him. I probably thought about a minute, but the funny thing is that it was all genuine thought.



He’s a Monster!

A reg playing on another table who I chat with from time to time (he’s probably in his 50s or 60s, plays about 20-30 hours a week and wins but doesn’t crush), is chatting with his son who plays $1/2. He points at me and says, “See that guy? If you ever see him, don’t sit at his table. He’s a monster!”

I chuckle and say, “You can’t believe EVERYTHING your father tells you!”

I then run the nut flush into a boat, but keep on trucking… I’ve still had hero folds, hero calls, max value lines… But so far, no big bluffs today and no super thin value. There’s still time, though.

Hand No. 8

There are a couple of limps, I limp 88 and there are two more limps. The BB raises to $50 and we’re about $800 deep. I’m the only caller.

He’s previously complained tonight that he’s never ever beat me in a pot over the course of several sessions, and I always flop it on him and he’s annoyed. He’s one of these kids who thinks he’s the best, puts his hoodie on only when he’s in a hand and pulls it down over his face to try to look intimidating. He’s usually fine to play with, but he’s clearly agitated with me tonight even though I haven’t said anything bad to him.

Flop ($125): AAT

He bets $70 and I think and raise to $210. He tanks and asks if I’ll show if he folds. I tell him if he tips the dealer a redbird, I will. He says, “No, $2.” I go, “You’re going to haggle with the dealer’s tip?” He says, “Absolutely.”

I just ignore him at this point and he keeps rambling. “You really cracked my kings again? You really flop it on me every time?” He folds. I hold my cards and point to the dealer. He tosses her $2. I shrug and show anyway. In hindsight I wish I’d waited for her to grab it and then mucked and said, “I said $5 not $2.”

Anyway, I show and toss the dealer another dollar of my own and he looks FURIOUS.

Him: “OK buddy… Keep it up… Keep being so reckless, because one of these times I’m going to have something for you and I’m going to stick it right up your ass, I promise!”

Me: “Hey man, no need to get personal. I’m just playing the game. You wanted to see the hand.”

Him: “Nobody is getting personal.”

Me: “You’re going to stick it up my ass?”

Him: “Nothing personal.”

Me: “OK, buddy.”

He then stacks off to someone else in short order and leaves.

The funny thing is, that’s actually a TERRIBLE bluff spot, but I just knew it was going to work against him. He doesn’t have that much Ax, so if he’s not willing to get $800 in without an A or boat on that board, he’s going to have a tough time calling down, even though my range is almost entirely bluffs.

Hand No. 9

My game got pretty crazy later on, with a fish sitting on like $1200 and $20-$25 raises being called in 8 spots routinely. I had the God seat on the fish and my goal was to play as many pots as cheap as possible in position with him with like 80% of my range.

I forget the exact action, but the board is…

($150ish): KJ857

I have J7 and one potentially tilted player bets $55. The fish calls. I tank here. 9T is certainly possible from the tilted player, but so is a total bluff and Kx. Either of them could have also backed into hearts, but his sizing makes me lean toward him being weak, while the fish will call this raise with Jx or Kx. I make it $155. The guy who bet snap calls and I think I’m probably beat now. The fish tanks and flashes a K, then calls. I table, and I’m good vs. the tilted players’ 78o and the fish’s Kx.

Thin value for the win! So I got my hero folds, hero calls, bluffs, value extraction, and thin value on in this session. I think it’s the best poker I’ve ever played and I took my A game to an all new level… But running good didn’t hurt, either.



That’s a 4-3-2-1 pyramid on the bottom, then a 4-3-2-1 going up but the final stack of green is a little light. I had over $4,300 in the stack at one point, then lost a little at the end… It’s still my biggest cash game win to date, slightly (my previous best was $3,148).

Results: +$3,169 in 15 hours, 33 minutes

End of the Downswing

Well, I wasn’t kidding when I said I was going to run up a couple thou more and BURY it! I did exactly that, with the last session that started in the break-even stretch getting me into the positive by a couple Gs.

The final numbers…

Cash game: +$3,915 in 404 hours, 47 minutes
Tournaments: -$1,746 in 31 hours, 42 minutes

Total: +$2,169 in 436 hours, 29 minutes

Here’s what the cash game chart looks like for that stretch…



I would never wish 400+ hours of that kind of torturous run bad on anyone, but at the end of the day, I’m a way better player now than when I started, and I know I can tolerate anything in poker up to that point. This is going to make 50, 100 and 200 hour stretches of negative variance so much easier to deal with, so it’s going to help me a lot in the future.

The crazy thing is that despite all of that, my lifetime win rate in $2/5 is still $36+ an hour in 461 hours… So I’m very likely a 10bb/hr winner at $2/5 once the sample size gets long enough to offset this run. Also, since I started working hard on my mental game and refusing to refer to it as a downswing as much as possible, my $2/5 hourly is over $80 in 115 hours. It’s obviously a small sample size, but it’s still significant to show that my hard work is paying off and my true hourly at $2/5 is likely at or above $50.


Goals for 2/12 to 2/19

[24/70] Play 70 Hours of Live Poker

I came up way short on the volume, as I lost a few days from being sick and one from shopping for a car... I'm completing the purchase on Monday, though, which is awesome for a couple reasons - first, I'll have my own car and I'm excited about it... Second, it gets one more chore done to let me focus more and more on my poker only.

[5/8] Do my Daily Life Mental Game Work

I fell behind on this while I was sick and just laying around.

[4/8] Walk a Mile Each Day

Likewise.

[4/8] 50 Pushups or Hindu Squats Each Day

Same here - I'll start getting it going again now.

[0/4] Go to the Gym Four Times

I guess I need to double down on the end of the month for the gym goals.

All in all, these goals look like I came up way short, but subjectively I feel okay about this stretch of time given what I dealt with and what I got done... And I'm really fired up to close out February strong with some adjusted goals.

nice work

February Part 3 - Goals for 2/20 to 2/28: “I’m in a destruction mode if the gold exists.”

[ ] Play 80 Hours of Poker

This would basically get me to 140 hours this month, which would be pretty respectable for still having several days a month dedicated to broadcasting.

[ ] Win $4,300

This would give me a $10K month. I don't often set money goals, but I do really want a $10K month. I won't alter my play to do it, but I may try to grind extra hours if I'm in striking range but short.

[ ] Watch 2 RunItOnce Videos

This would finish out my goal of five this month.

[ ] Do My Daily Life Mental Game Work

[ ] Do 50 Hindu Squats or Pushups Each Day

[ ] Walk a Mile Each Day


Reward

If I complete all of the goals for the final part of February, I'll bank a $1,500 5/10 shot for the next time the game looks good.

Hand 4 with the aces I wouldn't worry about being exploited there. That's a textbook example of capped ranges and I still don't think more than .01% of the player pool will recognize that. It's ok to play exploitably if you're not being exploited.

Good to see you crushing again

Thanks!


Thanks! And I agree... This situation with these stack sizes comes up so rarely that I can play exploitably against the overwhelming majority of players.

awesome work Cuse !

now if only jim beyhime could follow your lead
oh well next year (unless we're banned for a decade or something)

Good job on climbing out of your downswing. Sounds like you had a good attitude throughout your rough stretch. Most players just whine too much about variance and let their mental games blow up through the tough stretches because they were spoiled and entitled during their previous heaters (where they thought they were God's gift to poker).

Thanks! We've gotta work on your spelling, though . (Boeheim)

I'd be surprised if they aren't eligible for the postseason next year, though, and they should be pretty good.




Thanks! I got negative for a chunk of it but I pulled it together and worked a lot on my mental game for the last half of it. If you're going to go through that, you might as well come out stronger for it.

Some days you can't beat the guy who jams blind. He can't win a pot for 3 hours looking at his cards, but when he jams blind he gets there! What a game.

[QUOTE=cuserounder;46177086]Thanks! We've gotta work on your spelling, though . (Boeheim)

Thanks for the clarification - had no idea who Bob was talking about

Bobs just another Hooked on Phonics success story