Would advise the student to pre allocate when he's playing, and only add/remove times if he's feeling very good or slightly bad. Also to track results but not look at the (esp. short term) history.

Not tracking losing results might be somewhat useful in the short term ... but I can't see how that's going to be a good idea long term, esp. as you'd like some evidence that you are moving from a losing rec. to a break even one.


For a winning reg. though, not tracking results seems insane ... Like even if you have nothing else you are going to get a rough idea of how much money you are depositing in your bank. Also you'd need to live somewhere that doesn't tax poker winnings, or it's just illegal.
Again, I can see tracking it but refusing to look at "short term" historical data ... but that's not the same thing.

Definitely not a brag, I too wanna transition to other stuff I just dunno what yet, much easier said than done… I just wakeup and say oh I need money for this or that and never get around to trying anything new in life lol

Gogogo, imo!

Genvisioninganearlyverticalstraightupline?G


I'm sitting at 66% over 754 sessions at my 1/3 NL game.

As others have stated above, my guess is that session winrate is a fairly useless metric.

GcluelessuselessstatsnoobG

63% winners.

70% winners.

Got talking with one of the young pros in our 1/3 NL game last night. He's been on the scene since about 2016 and I think took up the game as his main (only?) source of income not too long after that.

He says he's booked close to 14K hours (I'm guessing 99% in this particular game), pretty impressive/insane when you consider 2020/2021 were write-offs (our room was closed for 20-21 months all told).

Says he aims for 200 hours per month = 2400 hours per year. And one year, just to prove to himself he could do it, he booked ~3100 hours, including a stretch of upwards of ~90 days were he played every single day.

Hadn't seem him in a while, and he said he had been taking a break as burn out is real. Last night he appeared about 2 hours into my session, but was gone by the time my 5 hour session came to an end.

Ginsane(horrible?)waytomakeaneasyliving?G

Does he play 1/3 for a living, or a bigger game? I wonder what his hourly rate is. Obviously at 1/3 you have to out in more hours to make a good living (although I think you could make a sick hourly at the 1/3 in my town, but it straddles big and plays crazy, easily $60 and maybe even more like $100).

When I figure out how much I am going t to make a year, I am assuming 30-35 hours oer week and 6 weeks off. The ability to have good work life balance is a huge positive to poker. I think have access to big enough games, having a good win rate, and having a big enough bank roll are all pretty key though.

Our room pretty much only runs a 1/3 NL game, although with optional UTG/Button straddles and a $500 maximum BI (as of 2022) I'm guessing it can sometimes play decently big (I've heard the difference between daytime versus nighttime games are, well, night and day, although he's also stated in the past that mostly playing just overnight games really ****s with your system). Although it doesn't play remotely as big as your 1/3 NL game (I've seen some of the effective stacks in your HHs, lol).

With those hours that he's logging, I can't image him (or a handful of other pros that are logging similar hours) have time to do anything else for income (let alone anything else at all, lol), although I don't know their backstories. He says he's taken stabs at higher steaks elsewhere, but this has to be his bread & butter game due to the hours he devotes to it.

Thought it impolite to ask about his winrate, and would probably have to share mine in return (which I'd rather not do). Still seems like a very tough slog for the half dozen or so guys that are attempting it, although I will say that up here at least they get the benefit of it being tax-free (so every dollar won goes directly into their pocket).

GhappilykeepingthedayjobG

Even if the 3bet is solver approved at a lower frequency, it's supposed to be a 3bet vs a villain raising the correct PFR frequency who then is folding the correct frequency vs 3bets.

But here we have a villain with a tighter than solver PFR who in all probability is calling a far wider frequency vs 3bets like the whole population tends to do.

Therefore, K6s is a clear fold preflop.

Speaking of clear folds, hero should have folded his ATs vs that villain as well.

Wrong thread?

10k w/500 buyin

This year 65.6%
Through the years: 62-66%

Yeah, that was for the K6s thread.

Ok: put in a super long session today to reach the 500 hour milestone. Here are my full stats and graphs.

$23,645, or 24 BBs an hour at $2-$100 spread-limit. I’d guess about 90% of it is red line. They still haven’t figured out that all you need to do to beat me is call my $100 bets!

Awesum start Dave-O!

Ggogogo!,imoG

I am afraid I have ramped up the (real, corporate) job search in earnest. I still find relying on poker for income extremely stressful, even during this Sun Run. I think I would be happier if I gave up and became a cubicle monkey again haha.

A cubicle monkey pulling down sweet $$$ and having poker as a fun (and possibly even profitable) hobby is the nut line, imo.

GcluelesscubiclemonkeynoobG

I had to make this choice 6-7 years ago and thank my old self everyday for doing so.

Some players are capable of seamlessly handling the emotional turmoil that comes with playing full time. I didn't want to find out if I was one of them. I'm sure I can do it. However, the more I felt I "had to play" the less I wanted to play which to me was a clear sign that I needed an exist strategy asap. Even to this day, I think the early part of my poker playing took some of the joy out of the game for me that I still do not feel has come back.

Poker as a hobby is so much better for me. I've logged maybe 50 hours of live cash this year, and couldn't be happier. Played 5-6 tournaments as well which are awesome.

Sent from my Pixel 7a using Tapatalk

I'm at 51% winning sessions despite having a $1/$3 winrate people wouldn't believe over 1,100 ish hours, and 1,912 hours total since moving back to FL and starting to play poker again in 2021. I do tend to quit early when I'm not feeling it and play much longer when doing well and/or in a good game. I also count the short ~15 minutes of $1/$2 while waiting as a session (unless I didn't VPIP or pay blinds, then don't log the $0s)

excluding sessions under an hour I go up to 52.4%

playing in a high rake game (that now just started raking preflop also) I came up with a few metrics. Because what else to we have to do while folding all of these hands

I think the pot going to the flop needs ~2/3 of whatever hits the cap. I call it $40 in my main game which takes $7+$3 at $65

I count two rounds worth after it seems the lineup has stabilized and if fewer than 50% of hands are even getting to $40 before the flop, it's unlikely to be too profitable. I stack small chips behind my stack to keep track.

The downside is my room also has a 50 hours $500 promo so if I can't play every day I may have to put in hours in either soft but small rake trap or tougher but still enough action lineups. This month I think I'd get 40 something if I didn't try for the bonus so I may have to play whoever and hope for the best.

For bigger games I think of it more as "% of grinder hands. If I see a chop or blind steal and the game isn't obviously good before that that's one on the bad side. Things like raise 3 bet fold or late position raise only big blind defends count in the grinder column. Your more typical 4 to the flop counts as a good hand. I want to see over 50% in the good category to avoid a leave or table change.

When I play 5/5/10 or 10/10 there's more social pressure to not insta leave when the lineup isn't great so I might just cut out on the earlier end if there are a lot of grinder hands but still the skill level won't be too high in the starting lineup / "private" stage

That rake sounds horrendous. Bigger stakes are obviously better if the rake is flat. I don't know that the percent of pots being, "good," absolutely matters and that seems like a high variance and somewhat arbitrary metric. As long as the hands you are getting involved in are good.

I have been playing full time since August 26, 2023. I have run pretty good, but from my perspective, I absolutely had no drive for my line of work and spent all day thinking about poker. Working 40 hours minimum per week, and sometimes more than 50 hours per week, and then trying to find a few hours to do the thing I truly love and on top of that finding time to spend with my son, fiancee, let alone friends and time doing other hobbies was way too stressful. All the while knowing I was making far more per hour than I was making at my job.

Now I average 31.5 hours per week. 377 hours played since going full time, up ~55k, hourly ~$145. For the year, up ~$134k, 779 hours, hourly ~$172.

Here is my graph since going pro:



Not pictured are 3 12k downswings and a few more $7k single day losses I had earlier this year. So year, the emotional turmoil takes a toll, but playing in games where you have a high win rate and a proper bankroll help.

My fiancee says I am happier than I ever have been and this has been the best think for our relationship. Honestly there was more turmoil in my life working a passionless, stressful day job and trying to find time for poker + time for loved ones. Now working less, making more, doing what I love, and have more time for loved ones.

But who knows, situations could change and the games could dry up for whatever reason. Thankfully I have a good certification (CPA) and experience and could get another job if I needed to. So yeah, there is always turmoil in some form. Risk, variance, soul crushing hours in passionless jobs, pick your poison. So far I am happy with my pick.

For anyone wondering, the stakes are mostly 5/5, which plays mostly as 5/5/10/20, some 5/10(/25), some 10/25(/50), occasional 1/2, 1/3, 2/5. I don't keep track of the stakes of each session because sometimes I move around from stake to stake and also the true blinds of the game are difficult to gauge because of the straddle.

Well done, Mlark! That's a nice chunk of change for 370 hours of poker.

I'm surprised you don't separate/track your stats by stake, since you play games that vary so wildly in size. Obviously, either way, it's an lol sample size, but if the vast majority of these hours are at 5/5 then I'm viewing this chart a lot differently than if they're more balanced with the larger games (since a few big hands going your way in the biggest games you play could make up an outsized majority of these gains).

And as you alluded to, I'm glad it sounds like you have a proper/substantial bankroll to be rolling with multiple 5-figure downswings and 7k loss days! I just climbed back from a 100+ hour 8k downswing/breakeven stretch at 5/5 and it was yet another reminder that so much of "being a professional" at poker is just having the mental fortitude to endure (and enjoy) the ride.

Ok, I was just checking my online database and I was looking at my win rate in micro tournaments when effective stacks were above 90BB. My win rate is around 30BB/100 over 48,000 hands which is the equivalent of 9BB per hour in a live poker environment. Then it dawned on my that online MTTs don't have rake which in live poker should be around 8BB/100 or so/ Also whereas micro MTTs at the early levels resemble live poker play more than online micro stakes, they do play somewhat differently and are probably a bit easier.

For as long as I can remember, 10BB per hour has been presented as the achievable win rate for a good player. Maybe it is, but it certainly isn't the norm. How many serious players achieve that win rate? I doubt there are many.

When trying to deal with this questions, we need to grapple with selection bias.

People who post graphs on the Winrates thread are probably a self-selected group of people who have ran hot with perhaps a couple of fibbers mixed in. It's very very rare for people who are losing or running bad or not running close to what is considered a good win rate to post in that thread.

People who post on this forum are again a self-selected group of players who are taking the game seriously and are trying to make as much money as they can. Then again, one shouldn't expect this group to consist of crashers because one would think that these people have reached a level of play they are content with while they are probably choosing to improve in other way than posting hands.

So, our sample is biased. But knowing that, I think that if people are allowed to give an anonymous answer to a poll question, we are going to get a better answer on how much people who are trying to improve are really winning.

Unfortunately, as far as I know, the forum only allows me to post one poll question per thread. Ideally, I would want to ask people's win rates according to each stake and since I a lot of people would like it that way, I would want to ask a question about their lifetime win rate and a more recent sample of let's say 1000 hours. Alas, I cannot do this, though maybe if there's an interest, we could create a different thread for each separate question.

So I ask you. What is your win rate in terms of BB per hour? Your answer is anonymous.

Voted!

I've always been pretty transparent with my winrate, posting my yearly winrates every early January and also updating my well every 1000 hours (I'm on pace to reach 6000 hours at 1/3 NL in early 2024, so another update coming soon).

But always been kinda surprised that very few other forum regs post their stats for all to lol at.

GcluelesswinratenoobG

its over 10BB at 1/3 but there is frequent straddling. so i guess i dont know.

I voted "I don't know", mainly because sample size. Which is the main reason I don't bother posting in the big winrate thread.

It feels like a bit of a cheat, because I feel like I play _a lot_ for someone who isn't a professional. But I also study a non-trivial amount, and I don't track that anywhere.

Also there are lots of unknown factors. Like the cost/time of getting to the casino, including/excluding lots of random comps. or "bonuses" from the room.


So, for some form of full disclosure:

Not taking travel time into account, or comps/bonuses:


Live 1-2 in 2022 was ~$5/hr over ~475 hours.
Live 1-2 in 2023 is ~$29/hr over ~445 hours.

Live 2-5 in 2022 was ~ negative $2/hr over 80 hours.
Live 2-5 in 2023 is ~$57/hr over 60 hours.

Live "bonuses" in 2022 was $445 ... but I mostly played somewhere that didn't have bonuses but had "better comps.", and it's super difficult to rate what those are worth IMO.
Live "bonuses" in 2023 is $1575 ... and it was very nearly 2x-3x that.


And even all that feels very incomplete, for a bunch of reasons. The biggest probably being that due to playing in different places in 2022/2023, the games played differently. I also intentionally played in a bunch of bad games and bad positions in early 2022 because I wanted the practice. So it doesn't feel great to compare them, even at 500ish hours of play.


Did I improve this year? Maybe. Hopefully.
Did I become 6x better at 1-2? Let's just say I would not bet on that being true.


Live 1-3 and 5-10/10-10 I played have all been "we rich now, just quit your job" but lol sample sizes.


I could easily argue I'm 10bb+/hr at 1-2, 2-5 and 5-10 this year ... but I wouldn't trust that data, and for similar reasons I wouldn't trust this poll. ��*♂️