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Old 08-23-2019, 03:05 PM   #24001
thegibson
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Davinho View Post
hey Im having really good results this year for very low time. Im playin partime because im doing a paid internship.
What stake is that?

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Old 08-23-2019, 03:08 PM   #24002
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

1/3 500 max most likely
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Old 08-23-2019, 03:35 PM   #24003
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Just curious..is this saying that in order for me to have a risk of ruin of 5%..I only need a 7 buyin bankroll?

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Old 08-23-2019, 03:46 PM   #24004
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by thegibson View Post
Just curious..is this saying that in order for me to have a risk of ruin of 5%..I only need a 7 buyin bankroll?

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Yes, that’s what it is saying, and it seems the app is doing the calculation correctly.
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Old 08-23-2019, 04:51 PM   #24005
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If your assumptions about WR and SD are correct, sure.

35.5 BB / 100 hands is 10.65 BB/hr at 30 hands/hr. That's a pretty good clip, More than most players can manage. See what happens if you put in half that.

I don't remember how to do the SD conversion offhand (has some sqrt I think). But that value may be bad too.

It's always good to do an uncertainty analysis of your inputs for something like this. How do the results change if you're off by 10%? 25%? Etc.
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Old 08-23-2019, 05:21 PM   #24006
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
If your assumptions about WR and SD are correct, sure.

35.5 BB / 100 hands is 10.65 BB/hr at 30 hands/hr. That's a pretty good clip, More than most players can manage. See what happens if you put in half that.

I don't remember how to do the SD conversion offhand (has some sqrt I think). But that value may be bad too.

It's always good to do an uncertainty analysis of your inputs for something like this. How do the results change if you're off by 10%? 25%? Etc.
How can I do that? Its roughly 1100 hours of cash game play

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Old 08-23-2019, 05:27 PM   #24007
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Start by plugging different inputs into your calculator. Or if that won't do it, use this one: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
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Old 08-23-2019, 06:00 PM   #24008
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I prefer a calculator over a simulator for this specific purpose:

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poke...uirements.html

A simulator does a better job allowing you to visualize and comes with more information, but a calculator gives an exact answer.
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Old 08-23-2019, 06:44 PM   #24009
Badreg2017
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Slightly off topic but does anyone have any good data or at least educated guesses on PLO vs NLHE winrates? If you had two equally skilled players playing 5/5 NLHE and 5/5 PLO, who would you expect to make more over a large sample? I’ve tried to search this but answers for PLO seem to be all over the map.
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Old 08-23-2019, 06:48 PM   #24010
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Start by plugging different inputs into your calculator. Or if that won't do it, use this one: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
Ahh it's in "poker bankroll tracker" app. It's not a calculator so it just goes off my sessions.

I went there and it shows the same as the app.

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Old 08-24-2019, 12:13 AM   #24011
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Slightly off topic but does anyone have any good data or at least educated guesses on PLO vs NLHE winrates? If you had two equally skilled players playing 5/5 NLHE and 5/5 PLO, who would you expect to make more over a large sample? I’ve tried to search this but answers for PLO seem to be all over the map.
Similarly skilled players would win far more in PLO because the average pot size is bigger and (imo) the average player skill is worse.
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:09 PM   #24012
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The end of August marks the end of Year 2 for myself as an active poker enthusiast. I played a lot of online in the pre-black whateverday it was that happened in my youth. After an extended break, which included ( and still includes) a family and other responsibilities, I've been back playing seriously (on a part time basis) for two years.

By serious I mean that I've been giving attention to my game and trying to improve. And that when I do play, I'm trying to bring my A game as often as possible, not simply goofing around with some friends at the table. (Don't worry, I leave my hoodie and sunglasses at home). In the months moving forward, I'm trying to hit 2-3 sessions per week, and about 20hrs/week of table time.

I want to say thanks to all the posters who continue to give out excellent actionable knowledge to the community, you guys here have helped me a lot. So THANK YOU!

Results so Far: I clearly have gotten some serious good fortune here, and its still a small sample. But I no longer question whether I can consistently win at this game (which I did 2 years ago).

Limits: Hours: Profit: $/hr:
$2/5 - 125 - $2335 $18.68/hr
$1/3 - 296 - $10002 $33.79/hr
$1/2 - 243 - $13615 $56.03/hr

Overall: 664 hrs - $25,952 - and $39.05/hr. With SD of $280/hr.

Notes: You can see in the graph that I've been on a heater recently and that has come principally at $1-2 and driving those stats through the roof. My 1-2 game generally plays deep, and commonly has 200bb+ average stacks in play, which improves the WR significantly. Even as such, we are talking very small hours, and I have no confidence in these WR numbers. I only am glad to say that I DO feel confident that I can continue to beat the game, which I owe in a meaningful way to the generous members of this community... so thank you again!

Goals: I'd like to improve my volume as I mentioned. I'd also like to build my bankroll up to about $20k and start taking some shots at the $2/5 game more often. I've been not keeping a separate life roll and poker roll, so that needs to happen before I play more consistently at the higher stakes. I'd like to improve to where $2/5 becomes my normal game, and the highest profit for me.

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Old 08-28-2019, 06:39 PM   #24013
MikeStarr
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It may not mean much since its not a ton of hours but it could be a bit worrisome that your win rate steadily drops as you go up in stakes. BBs/hr can drop as competition is better but not this drastically and $$/hr should be rising not dropping.
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Old 08-28-2019, 07:40 PM   #24014
BlueSpade84
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
It may not mean much since its not a ton of hours but it could be a bit worrisome that your win rate steadily drops as you go up in stakes. BBs/hr can drop as competition is better but not this drastically and $$/hr should be rising not dropping.
Agrred. I've certainly struggled with the transition to 2/5. I use a lot of exploitive play that isn't optimal as the player quality increases. I have tons to work on and improve.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:44 PM   #24015
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by BlueSpade84 View Post
Agrred. I've certainly struggled with the transition to 2/5. I use a lot of exploitive play that isn't optimal as the player quality increases. I have tons to work on and improve.
Never stop using exploitive play. IMO, that's where you will make the most money. Even at 5/10 you can exploit people in any number of ways.

We all have lots to work on and improve, but don't stop exploiting peoples tendencies.
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Old 08-28-2019, 11:11 PM   #24016
BlueSpade84
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Never stop using exploitive play. IMO, that's where you will make the most money. Even at 5/10 you can exploit people in any number of ways.

We all have lots to work on and improve, but don't stop exploiting peoples tendencies.
I'm on the same page. I could have been more clear. I have been using certain exploits at 1-2 and 1-3 that have not worked at 2-5. I just need to exploit in a little different way. My play needs to improve across the board to crush 2-5 anyway. There are some pretty solid 2-5 regs!

But i completely agree with the necessity of exploit play. The majority of my profit comes from good exploits i reckon.
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:08 AM   #24017
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Well done 'Spade!
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Old 08-29-2019, 11:28 AM   #24018
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Think it's perfectly acceptable for the winrate to drop by these amounts when you consider (a) sample sizes and (b) smaller stake rates may not be sustainable.

Honestly, if you could end up sustaining that WR at your deep 1/2 game (???) then not even completely sure why you'd want to move up if the 2/5 game is more difficult (unless it is just for personal challenge purposes).

GgreatstartSpade,gogogo!G
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Old 08-29-2019, 04:08 PM   #24019
BlueSpade84
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Think it's perfectly acceptable for the winrate to drop by these amounts when you consider (a) sample sizes and (b) smaller stake rates may not be sustainable.

Honestly, if you could end up sustaining that WR at your deep 1/2 game (???) then not even completely sure why you'd want to move up if the 2/5 game is more difficult (unless it is just for personal challenge purposes).

GgreatstartSpade,gogogo!G
For sure we are talking about small samples here. I'm not even to 1000 hrs yet. One other thing that I should mention is that while the 1-3, and 2-5 have been raked games. All of the 1-2 has been played at home games, and non raked games. Not having a rake certainly should boost that winrate by at least $10/hr. Still I don't think its sustainable, but I wouldn't be surprised that a deep 1-2 with no rake could be beat to the tune of $40/hr. (Not by me maybe, but by a really good player.)

Thanks for the support and cheering guys!
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Old 08-29-2019, 04:57 PM   #24020
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by BlueSpade84 View Post
For sure we are talking about small samples here. I'm not even to 1000 hrs yet. One other thing that I should mention is that while the 1-3, and 2-5 have been raked games. All of the 1-2 has been played at home games, and non raked games. Not having a rake certainly should boost that winrate by at least $10/hr. Still I don't think its sustainable, but I wouldn't be surprised that a deep 1-2 with no rake could be beat to the tune of $40/hr. (Not by me maybe, but by a really good player.)

Thanks for the support and cheering guys!
Deep 1/2 home game with no rake can probably be beaten for $50+/hr
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Old 08-30-2019, 02:55 PM   #24021
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Rake has a tremendous impact on winrates. For example, assume the average hand nets just $3 to the house. They're taking $90 away from the game every hour, assuming 30 hands/hr. Include what you're tipping and the fact it's not always a full table, say just 8.5 players/hr, we can already see how sitting in the game can cost us more than $10/hr, or a full 5 big blinds if it's 1/2.

Many places drop even more, so yeah, **** DNegs.
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:24 AM   #24022
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[QUOTE=kf98;55299725]so i have a slightly different question on moving up in stakes. i am for all intents and purposes a 100% live player. i play about 90% cash and about 10% tournaments, and i play full time: 4 - 6 times a week, nearly 2,600 hours cash play since jan 1 last year, and a shade over 300 hours for tournaments.

my bread and butter game is 2/3 nl, mostly because the game is ridiculously soft where i play (this year, over ~450 hours i am making 9bb/hr). i do have a dedicated 50 full buy bankroll.


Would the game at the Bike be better for you? There you can buy in for $300
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:45 AM   #24023
AAJTo
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August: +2978/91.5h for 11bb/h.

14 winning sessions, 5 losing. Biggest win: +885.
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:06 AM   #24024
MikeStarr
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August was my most up and down variance filled month ever.

1) I had my worst day ever at 2/5 which was -$2212. It could've easily have gotten worse if I hadnt left early.
2) In one stretch I lost 20 out of 22 All ins and was not behind in any of them. 8 of them were basically coin flips. 4 of the 8 coin flips we ran twice and I lost both boards each time. 1 of them was a 4 bet pot with AA vs JTs. He flopped a straight and flush draw. We got all in on the flop and ran twice and he won both boards for 210BBs each.
3) Ran into more sets than seemed possible
4) Got set over setted once and lost
5) Got all in KK vs AA once and lost (No AA vs KK for me this month)
6) I had AQ on a AsQsTsQh board. Dude flopped a Royal against me.
7) I also hit a ton of sets myself
8) My StnDev was 33% higher than normal

If I didn't have a poker app to look at I would've said I got destroyed this month. The bad hands stick in your mind a lot better than the good ones. Somehow I ended the month at 124 hrs and +$6111

My fav hand of the month....

4 limps. I raise to $40 JJ SB. Only 1 EP limper calls.
Flop $100. 543. I check. He bets $75 I call
Turn $250 6. I check. He bets $310. I tanked and I just didnt believe him. I crai to $725 total. He called it off with A5 and I won a big one.
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Old 09-01-2019, 11:29 AM   #24025
AAJTo
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^Funny how we remember that 20% way more then the 80%. Feels like Ive been massively coolered every month Ive played and yet I am very consistent overall.
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