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Old 05-01-2018, 12:07 PM   #21501
tuds38
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Every serious player knows a "session" is a fairly arbitrary unit... or is it? A new session resets your stack to be limited by the max, resets your table image, and resets any reads you have except for players you've seen before. With that in mind, ending a session as a winner could actually be a huge leak! An above max stack should have higher expected return, combined with a winning or otherwise good image and accumulated knowledge of the players / dynamic means your expectation is actually growing along with your stack. Your expectation at the beginning of a session is way worse.

The desire to rack up and "book a big win" will actually hurt your long term win rate. Maybe obvious to some but I someteimes get complacent when I have a large stack (say 3x the max or more). "Do I really want to keep playing and try to win 1300 instead of 1000? I'd be so pissed if I blow it..." In reality it's like you are destroying your own sand castle before the tide comes in, rather than making it even better and letting the tide (aka game conditions) dictate when you're done adding towers.

I need to mentally override the risk aversion / win complacency that can creep in to a session narrative, "Ignoring" the variance as long as we maintain +EV is pretty much the mark of a winning player, but I suspect a lot of otherwise excellent players still let it influence their session length even if it doesn't impact in-hand decisions. At least it does for me...
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Old 05-01-2018, 01:10 PM   #21502
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The above assumes (a) you're playing in a completely different environment each time regarding table image and reads (ex. doesn't apply to those who play in reg infested environments with the same player pool) and (b) that you're better at deepstack than your opponents (or at the very least might not apply to those whose wheelhouse is shorterstacked play and who feel a little uncomfortable with deepstack play).

Gitdepends,imoG
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Old 05-01-2018, 03:02 PM   #21503
tuds38
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Fair points... but even in a reggy room your heater / big stack image is probably going to be better than your default image.

But yeah if the other deep stacks are tough players or you're not experienced playing deep then it could erode the implicit edge that comes with a hot session.

I guess my main point is, everyone knows you shouldn't leave a great game just because you are running bad as long as you keep your head on straight. But I find myself too willing to leave a good game just because I am running good and think the win is "big enough".
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:15 PM   #21504
the_dude_174
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
Poker Bankroll Tracker is pretty awesome IMO.
Do you use the Pro version?
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:18 PM   #21505
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A large chunk of my net comes from big winning sessions

When I was first starting out I would certainly lock up wins because I was bad at deepstacked and didn't want to lose 5 buyins in a single hand.

So, yes, "locking up wins" is absolutely a huge leak, but not one so easy to fix. The "fix" requires being over-rolled for your game and also being and an excellent deep stack player. However, if you obtain those two attributes your WR can easily skyrocket by being able to catapult decent wins into huge wins. The momentum is real
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:23 PM   #21506
DeathCabForTootie
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by the_dude_174 View Post
Do you use the Pro version?
yup
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:27 PM   #21507
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It would be very interesting to break down those big wins though. Were they really all just table image / big stack related? Or simply ran good in a bunch of medium sized pots (that could have just as easily been accomplished hit-and-run shortstacking)?

I really have zero recollection of how my biggest winning sessions went (say, for example, all my $1K+ wins at 1/3 NL), but my overall best guess would be they were of the latter type (i.e. just a bunch of run good medium sized pots hit multiple times over a bunch of hours that really had little to do with table image or stack sizes). I mean, my memory is completely shot regarding this, but I'm fairly positive I would have remembered something along the lines of "oh yeah, I had a really awesome image going and that guy got in $700 against me when I had the nuts" (which I'm fairly sure has like literally never happened).

Gitmightjustbeamirage,imoG
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Old 05-01-2018, 05:21 PM   #21508
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The leak of quitting too early when you're deep is probably smaller than not quitting soon enough and punting a 4BI stack.

When I think about my big winning sessions it's usually a combination of two factors:

1) A juicy game. Often where people are willing to get into pots for decent amounts with marginal (or trash) hands, and then rebuy. Sometimes just because they're bad all around.

2) Hitting a spot to get paid. Spiking top set in a raised pot with $500 behind type of situation.

Condition 1 alone will get you a lot of good solid 2-3 BI win.

Condition 2 alone gets you a double up and a BI or two win.

Have to get both conditions to score a really big win IME. Here I'm thinking of sessions in the 4-6 hour range. Not the 16 hour grind fest to end up $1k at a $1/2 game.
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Old 05-18-2018, 01:13 PM   #21509
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm at 300 hours for the year so far the majority being at 2/5. 50 of the hours are at 1/2 and 1/3, 9 hours at 5/10, and the rest is 2/5.

300.7 hours / $37.41/hr / $11,248

My app also lets me look at my top 5 winning and losing games. Is there any take aways we can get from that info.

Top 5 games

$3760
$3100
$2420
$2300
$1600

Bottom 5 games
-$1500
-$1085
-$1080
-$990
-$925

I'm worried because it seems like my top games makes up almost all my profit. Is that just how live poker goes or am I just running really hot?

Also I usually only bring $2100 with me to the casino and I buy in for $700 (on a $1000 cap game). Usually if I'm losing I will leave after 4 or 5 hours. I admittedly start playing way to passive when I'm losing.
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Old 05-18-2018, 01:47 PM   #21510
gobbledygeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thin_slicing View Post
I'm worried because it seems like my top games makes up almost all my profit. Is that just how live poker goes or am I just running really hot?
A couple of years ago (you could probably track down the exact post in here if you wanted to) I posted something along the lines of how 80% of my winnings for the year came in like 10% of my sessions. The next year I don't think I posted a single big win (if I recall correctly without being forced to look at my stats), and surprise surprise I had sucky results overall.

But I also thing there's a good chance that's just meaningless randomness variance too. Pretty sure it's possible to have a killer year just by posting a lot of very mediocre wins with no big losses.

Gwhoknows,imoG
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Old 05-19-2018, 11:18 AM   #21511
thin_slicing
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
A couple of years ago (you could probably track down the exact post in here if you wanted to) I posted something along the lines of how 80% of my winnings for the year came in like 10% of my sessions. The next year I don't think I posted a single big win (if I recall correctly without being forced to look at my stats), and surprise surprise I had sucky results overall.

But I also thing there's a good chance that's just meaningless randomness variance too. Pretty sure it's possible to have a killer year just by posting a lot of very mediocre wins with no big losses.

Gwhoknows,imoG
Probably meaningless randomness. I know 300 hours is nothing when it comes to sample size.
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Old 05-19-2018, 01:47 PM   #21512
GatorXP
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you think u can beat it, def shot take just to get away from the bigger rake affect at 1/2 If nothing else
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:11 AM   #21513
Team_Josh122
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Personally, I believe the most important factor for deciding when you should leave a game is based on the game and not your stack. Every 30 min check in with yourself and give an honest evaluation of how your playing and how good the table is. If your not playing on the top end of your game or the table has gone from good to bad, then it's time to rack up.
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Old 05-25-2018, 09:14 PM   #21514
DeathCabForTootie
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^^^ hot dog we have a weiner
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Old 05-26-2018, 06:01 AM   #21515
LordRiverRat
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Probably mentioned somewhere in this 861 page thread but let's talk about this again - biggest 1/3 downswing and worst 1/3 session! Go!

Biggest downswing for me is ~1500 over 400 hours of 1/3. Pretty close to it now and I'm sure I'm due for one that's double that before I hit 1k hours at this limit. Worst 1/3 session is -700. My main game is 300 max although I've played maybe 100 hours of 500 max.
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Old 05-28-2018, 11:57 AM   #21516
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Probably mentioned somewhere in this 861 page thread but let's talk about this again - biggest 1/3 downswing and worst 1/3 session! Go!

Biggest downswing for me is ~1500 over 400 hours of 1/3. Pretty close to it now and I'm sure I'm due for one that's double that before I hit 1k hours at this limit. Worst 1/3 session is -700. My main game is 300 max although I've played maybe 100 hours of 500 max.
Currently at 3942 hours of 1/3 NL, I've had two identical maximum downswings of $2866 (both to the dollar) both over fun little 3-7 session stretches (first was in a $400 maximum game, second was in a $300 maximum game). Both times it sent me on ~breakeven stretches of about ~200 hours.

My biggest single loss is $1200, which was all I had in my pocket at the time (with my solution being "bring more money from now on", which I do, lol). Last two BIs were simply terrible spew on my part (really hilited for me early on how important tilt control is), and I've since only recorded one other $1000+ loss in (509 sessions overall).

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
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Old 05-28-2018, 12:04 PM   #21517
Petrucci
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Probably mentioned somewhere in this 861 page thread but let's talk about this again - biggest 1/3 downswing and worst 1/3 session! Go!

Biggest downswing for me is ~1500 over 400 hours of 1/3. Pretty close to it now and I'm sure I'm due for one that's double that before I hit 1k hours at this limit. Worst 1/3 session is -700. My main game is 300 max although I've played maybe 100 hours of 500 max.
My biggest downswing at 1/2 and 1/3 combined is around $5500 over a stretch of around 3 weeks when i played in Vegas for 2,5 months last year. I hope it will be a long long time until i experience such a downswing again,hopefully never. The feeling of the doomswitch was turned on forever no matter how many hours i continue to play is some of the most difficult challenges ive had in my years of playing poker and in life. I get sick just thinking back of how i ran at that time.
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Old 05-28-2018, 12:13 PM   #21518
Petrucci
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

And biggest losing session 1/3, $1400 down the drain.
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Old 05-28-2018, 04:27 PM   #21519
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I remember a long time ago in a galaxy far far away.....when I won 20 days in a row. The **** the poker gods have put me thru since then is mind boggling.
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Old 05-28-2018, 04:40 PM   #21520
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Did you thank them for the insane positive variance of winning 20 in a row? Doubtful.
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Old 05-28-2018, 05:09 PM   #21521
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I remember a long time ago in a galaxy far far away.....when I won 20 days in a row. The **** the poker gods have put me thru since then is mind boggling.
If you go on a 20 session losing streak you have to wear an avatar of my choosing.

Gpostdownswingresultsforlols,imo!G
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Old 05-28-2018, 07:24 PM   #21522
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not at 1/3, but my record downswing is 2,877BBs at .5/1 and 1/1. Fortunately, I had some winning 1/2 sessions in there too, so the overall downswing was only $2,572 total, but considering that all of those losses were with $1 BBs, that's pretty brutal. I was buying in deep, but still, I was also playing a very juicy game and just getting hammered.

1/3 has been much kinder to me, variance-wise. The game is much more ABC than the gamble-fest at 1/1, and thus much lower StdDev.

Last edited by Garick; 05-28-2018 at 07:32 PM.
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Old 05-28-2018, 08:01 PM   #21523
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Did you thank them for the insane positive variance of winning 20 in a row? Doubtful.
Actually, every single day I made sure that I savored the great run because I knew when it ended I would miss it greatly. I know how bad the bad runs feel and I wanted to make sure that great run felt just as good.
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Old 05-28-2018, 08:02 PM   #21524
MikeStarr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If you go on a 20 session losing streak you have to wear an avatar of my choosing.

Gpostdownswingresultsforlols,imo!G
Deal! I'm at 5 in a row now. 5 in a row is my all time record though so if I get to close to 20 I may jump off a bridge before I ever have to wear an avatar for you.
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Old 05-29-2018, 12:29 AM   #21525
feel wrath
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Not at 1/3, but my record downswing is 2,877BBs at .5/1 and 1/1. Fortunately, I had some winning 1/2 sessions in there too, so the overall downswing was only $2,572 total, but considering that all of those losses were with $1 BBs, that's pretty brutal. I was buying in deep, but still, I was also playing a very juicy game and just getting hammered.

1/3 has been much kinder to me, variance-wise. The game is much more ABC than the gamble-fest at 1/1, and thus much lower StdDev.

yep, my 1/1 downswing is over 2000bbs and is still alive. I have lost about 600bbs in my last two 1/1 home games I play with friends and I lost $1400 at the Vegas meet up drunk 1/1 game last June.
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