He can't call turn with diamonds. We have equity vs. diamonds, especially nut diamonds, and we want it.

Guys like this sit around waiting for this exact situation so they can get their money in bad and bitch about it the rest of night/life/whatever.

You wouldn't call with diamonds.

I wouldn't call with diamonds.

Thought above the hand again. Ur right, conceded. Nice line gg. Thanks for the input.

Lol

Villain could have limped UTG+1 with TT/JJ and occasionally QQ+. So I think this is a close fold.

I think all three options are close to neutral therefore it's better to fold. If you played with this V a bit longer the decision would be clearer.

I understand Clorox's point though and it may be correct if this is truly that guy he describes.

Call>fold>raise but they're all close.

Is leading the flop completely standard here ?

I typically like to bet/fold my brains out with top pair in limped pots. I like check (usually raise big) with this hand though due to the amazing kicker we have and the fd on board. Obv it depends a lot on your own image.

Yea good point DGAF. Hero is 25 year old clean cut asian, bought in for 100bb. New casino so no one has seen me before.

Fold>Call>>>>Shove with Clorox70 turn/river plan which is good.

It's not a neutral decision at all.

The value-range is too wide compared to fds and posssible oesds lacking almost completely pure bluffs so giving free turn is better than shoving, but folding still reigns supreme.

AIK is if you bet/fold here in a good amount of 5/10 games you will get annihilated. While we're at it, why not just check/fold and save 35 bucks? same goes for 10 10 & maybe even j j, because's theres not much difference between jj and a9 here (whatever marginal % of the time he has 10 10). FYI, we need about 44% equity against his range to get it in. I THINK WE MIGHT HAVE THAT.

Folding is lol. After considering, Clorox's plan is good if villain calls without pot odds on the turn with diamonds or open ender, because we gained some equity going into the river. It's not good if villain folds turn, because he gave up equity vs. diamonds, and we're giving up on 18% of turns, some % of the time when we're winning.

Depends on villain but Shove=Call/Bet>>>fold

folding flop is only exploitable if you fold face-up. against recreational players bet-folding is the generally the way to go. if villain was hoodie internet kid LAG instead of middle aged dude then i would absolutely agree with you but the bottom line is that villain is like never making a move here with air. in reality, the best case scenario for us is villain showing up with like FD+overs. i used to level myself into getting it in in these spots and lollivepokersamplesize and all but i really do not think it's profitable.

if we do proceed, i dont like shoving at all. even if you're right and we are slightly ahead of villains get-it-in on the flop range, it's going to be high variance vs a fish that we could easily stack in a more favorable situation later on.

villains like these will play rest of hand face-up imo. if we call and a overcard or diamond rolls off and he checks, then we know we're good. if a diamond rolls off and he bets big, we're always behind.

I don't think so. You're folding to a raise against UTG+1 short stacker without any reads. This is not a major leak.

Because other things can happen than a raise here.

I doubt it against unknowns limping range. Maybe after two hands you get better info or some sick local flavor going on, probably not. 44 % is a lot.

We have the exact info on the villain that OP has. Shove can not be the correct play. IMO Clorox is pretty correct on range assessment and his most likely turn play. Are you trying construct some kind of optimal general line here with leading? I doubt that shove is good even then.

Fold>Call is pretty close there, raise is not. If you want to pay 10 bucks for a image, then do it by calling.

Raising $100 with $ 300 behind means that he had a stack of 400 to start on the flop right? (It doesn't change much tbh, I checked it both ways, obv shorter stack makes calling/shoving a tad better).

Basically what ur saying is even though the EV of folding is 0, and the EV of shoving is prob around 3% of pot, you'd rather wait for a better spot. That's fair, I'm rolled for my game, so Id take the 3% and keep reloading if need be. I have a feeling in the long run if win about 3% of what I put in.

IF,

Not to be an ass, but if you don't know where the 44% is coming from, don't respond to it.

Ok, so it was $400, I don't calculate the needed shove range % because I really don't have to since shoving doesn't even get close.

I think we have something around 35-39 %. I just can not get it even near 44 %. Maybe I should assume that he's really limp/raising-calling all J9o combos? Seems legit from the UTG.

i personally think that we aren't getting the right price and that the ranges assigned to villain have been too generous. i hope OP posts results and proves me wrong, but i feel like villain like NEVER has J9o, Q9o K9o type stuff here.

and yeah, even if we do have some super small edge, i'm a fan of waiting for a better spot vs the fish (even for those adequately rolled as i would expect it to be so close that intangibles like tilt can make this minus EV)

You assigned ranges to villain!

A limping short stacked fish NEVER shows up with an offsuit 9? Capital letters and everything? How are you people making these absurd assumptions with no more information than that? You guys seem to be assigning him a range of sets and combo draws and its blowing my mind.

he might have an offsuit 9x in his limp UTG range but i find it unlikely he's raising the flop with it and certainly isn't getting stacks in with it.

do you honestly think villain is getting stacks in on flop with Q9o?

Disco,

Do you think he's calling a hand like 89+ to not ship his Ninja stack when he flops the toppiest of pairs?

The real issue is how likely he is to slowplay a set or even top two. If he always calls 77, 99, then it's def a hand we want to play for stacks. If we call, he def bets a 9 on a blank turn and we can get it in then.

in this spot where nobody knows you in a std 5-10 game your lead is fine but when a guy w/ 400 makes a small raise here when multiple ppl are in in the pot he has you crushed so often. getting in 40bbs here in a multiway limped pot w/ top pair is pretty spewy though that doesn't stop me from doing it.

edit* just noticed villain is UTG so he will be showing up w/ AA/KK here a ton. guys like this want to get the LRR in but once it doesnt go through they just wanna find the fastest way to get the money in on the flop.

You have to make certain assumptions. Some assumptions are better than others. Just because he might play 89 like this doesn't mean that you should include all the x9,9x combos in his range. It's more likely that he plays TT, JJ, slowplayed AA/KK, flush draws and sets like this every time once they got to the flop. They might be even more likely given the pre play unless this guy is really, really loose, which is another assumption that seems a bit silly given absolutely no information.

Post given his position and non-existent history, it seems unlikely bluff-spot and his range is not that wide given both his line and pre position. Fold.