[OFFICIAL] "The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread - Page 906 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

I hope bip! makes good and pays up on that steak dinner bet after this election. Now I'm worried. He seems to have lost his mind on this bet. Trump could win Texas by a landslide and I'd still argue this was not a smart bet. Will I put my money where my mouth is? Absolutely not. My entire bankroll is tied up in this steak dinner bet which is why I haven't been able to make any other political bets in the past 4 years.

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10-30-2020 , 03:59 PM

#22627

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobFarha

here's my list

squid face
randal
bigskip
feel wrath
cushlash

if any of those work let me know and I'll escrow 200 dollars

See if skip is up for it.

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10-30-2020 , 04:00 PM

#22628

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

Steak dinner as with 11t? (FYI that wasn’t a bet with 11t, I owe him dinner as a thank you)

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10-30-2020 , 04:01 PM

#22629

RobFarha

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 9,685

ok ill grab him

Hey everyone just wanted to let you guys know I have new neighbors from Kenya and they have a 13 year old kid who's 6'4 but really likes volleyball.

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10-30-2020 , 04:01 PM

#22630

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,207

DC - it’s not a smart bet - it is for the thrill

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10-30-2020 , 04:03 PM

#22631

squid face

ChatThreadPrez

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobFarha

ok ill grab him

Hey everyone just wanted to let you guys know I have new neighbors from Kenya and they have a 13 year old kid who's 6'4 but really likes volleyball.

I'm in whats the wager?

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10-30-2020 , 04:06 PM

#22632

DeadMoneyWalking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,384

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

I recently re-watched Woody Allen's Manhattan. His character (early 40's) is dating/****ing a 17 year old. It was kinda weird watching a 70s movie thru a 20s lense. Not sure if this stuff was make-believe-its-just-a-movie / standard at the time / is still now / or what.

GcluelessingeneralnoobG

I'd guess Woody isn't in the dark on that.

I'm biased in favor of Mia Farrow's version of the story, but she does seem a little nuts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

538, which I trust more than the betting markets which are dominated by homers, not sharps, has Biden's chances of winning Texas at 34%. Not likely, but not a pipe dream.

WEll that's the thing, I would take Nate Silver's odds on some things if he was actually laying them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobFarha

Cool. You can take it at 2-1 with me for as much as you want.

Farhaclause is here.

I’m not really trying to hammer you (this time), but when people make statements like this that they aren’t willing to bet on- to me it’s completely useless.

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Originally Posted by NewAcctIsBest

my friend is looking to bet $1k on biden vs $2k on trump, I can guarantee it or escrow. He is a well known poker player just likes his privacy. lmk I can book on here or via PMs. I can also just give you his number assuming he is ok with that

***- Got it garick I wont do any politarding

I spent all summer looking for someone to lay me 2:1 on a Trump bet, and mentioned it here. NOW there's virtually no time left for Biden to stumble and Trump is drawing to a few unpredictable anomalies [again].

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot

be that as it may, we'll find out in 2022 and 2024

I'd bet the party that wins next week gets killed in 2022.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cushlash

It doesn't have to be a purely monetary bet. Its about having skin in the game. That can be money but it doesn't have to be, money is just usually the easiest way to get skin in the game.

An extreme non-monetary example is airline pilots. They aren't betting money that they'll get you to your destination safely, not directly at least. But they are in the same plane as you so if they **** up then they die also. Would you ride in an airplane where the pilot was controlling the plane remotely from the safety of the ground? I wouldn't.

I think sports announcers and political pundits who constantly say dumb **** that turns out to be wrong on average should be fired but that's not the way the media works so you end up with the same idiots spouting the same nonsense year after year. Yet another reason I can't stand most sports announcers or any of these shows on ESPN anymore. There's no accountability.

You might argue that your reputation taking a hit due to being wrong is also skin in the game but in practice it seems like unless you're a public figure, and usually even if you are (see: sports announcers), there never seems to be any real reputation consequences to being wrong. No one tracks it unless there's something tangible on the line so its too easy to deny, make excuses or rationalize when you're wrong and escape with your rep unscathed.

People are obviously allowed to express their opinions without having any skin in the game, I just think its soft af and if you say something and someone else offers to bet against it and you say no then whatever you said is simply worthless noise.

I get Amarillo Slim's old adage bet on it or shut up.

You're a gambler and are used to it. Many people would never consider being like Slim.

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10-30-2020 , 04:07 PM

#22633

NewAcctIsBest

banned

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 1,039

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

Should be some arbitrage and general taking advantage of ground pilots with this handy guide to post election night shifts expectations:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/

can you define arbritage without looking it up? most people, including my finance prof, could not

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10-30-2020 , 04:09 PM

#22634

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewAcctIsBest

can you define arbritage without looking it up? most people, including my finance prof, could not

Trading the same asset on two exchanges quick enough to net the delta in its value on those exchanges with negligible risk.

/ that is how I would describe it

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10-30-2020 , 04:10 PM

#22635

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Sigh...

We should have escrowed. My list is:

Homer
Richard Parker
Rapini
limon
ILCD

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10-30-2020 , 04:11 PM

#22636

squid face

ChatThreadPrez

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewAcctIsBest

can you define arbritage without looking it up? most people, including my finance prof, could not

willing to wager up to a gnote bip can answer this

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10-30-2020 , 04:12 PM

#22637

squid face

ChatThreadPrez

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11,495

FU BIP! Y U SO FAST?

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10-30-2020 , 04:12 PM

#22638

NewAcctIsBest

banned

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 1,039

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

Trading the same asset on two exchanges quick enough to net the delta in its value on those exchanges with negligible risk.

/ that is how I would describe it

guaranteed profit without any risk

usually with regards to hedging, but doesn't have to be. The key part is the absence of risk- once you have risk it is no longer a sure thing and no longer arbitrage. And once you have arbitrage you should invest as much of yourself as possible , assuming its actually arbitrage.

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10-30-2020 , 04:13 PM

#22639

NewAcctIsBest

banned

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 1,039

Quote:

Originally Posted by squid face

willing to wager up to a gnote bip can answer this

you wouldve lost

Arbitrage occurs when a security is purchased in one market and simultaneously sold in another market at a higher price, thus considered to be risk-free profit for the trader.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/arbitrage.asp

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10-30-2020 , 04:13 PM

#22640

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewAcctIsBest

can you define arbritage without looking it up? most people, including my finance prof, could not

I had a finance professor that thought Jimmy Buffett and Warren Buffett were the same person.

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10-30-2020 , 04:15 PM

#22641

squid face

ChatThreadPrez

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11,495

Forgot how pedantic u were

Negligible risk covers it for me

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10-30-2020 , 04:16 PM

#22642

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,207

I actually deleted no risk and wrote negligible - because there is no fantasy land no risk scenarios IRL.

Regardless, it is referred to as arbitrage even with risk (risks people don’t think about until it bites them - like technical risk of transactions not posting instantly).

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10-30-2020 , 04:18 PM

#22643

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

Sigh...

We should have escrowed. My list is:

Homer
Richard Parker
Rapini
limon
ILCD

Oh - ha - forgot about that. That bet is on this election? Can I buy out for a salmon dinner?

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10-30-2020 , 04:19 PM

#22644

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Yes, this election. I don't eat salmon.

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10-30-2020 , 04:19 PM

#22645

NewAcctIsBest

banned

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 1,039

Quote:

Originally Posted by squid face

Forgot how pedantic u were

Negligible risk covers it for me

hey that's a big deal tho. My prof made the emphasis on the no risk and it stuck. However it seems common vernacular places it in the same range of negligible, and my crude understanding of the word negligible in this context is probably what wont let me accept the new definition.

negligible- so small or unimportant as to be safely disregarded: negligible expenses.

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10-30-2020 , 04:20 PM

#22646

NewAcctIsBest

banned

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 1,039

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

Ive never thought of that risk, good one. Are you a finance person in some capacity either through work or education?

I thought I achieved arbitrage last night when I hedged a trump/biden bet, but I then realized there is a risk(large actually) of one party not paying their side.

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10-30-2020 , 04:23 PM

#22647

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewAcctIsBest

Ive never thought of that risk, good one. Are you a finance person in some capacity either through work or education?

Went through business school for an MBA, but not a finance person at all.

Thing that pops in my head with arbitrage is the story from the Big Short book where a couple of guys misunderstood some detail about crude oil types and ended up stuck with an actual train car full of oil that they failed to turn in time (or something close to that)

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10-30-2020 , 04:24 PM

#22648

cushlash

King of the Nits

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,365

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSkip

I take some issue here as the value of the pundits/sports announcers to their employers isn't their accuracy but rather their ability to draw in viewers/clicks/revenue. And in a worlds (politics/sports) where there are multiple variables and relevant information changes constantly, even those with well thought analysis will be wrong frequently.

I didn't say you can't be frequently wrong. I said wrong on average.

Pro gamblers are frequently wrong but still right on average.

I agree with you regarding announcers and pundits. I did say "that's not how media works" so I understand why they don't get fired for being shitty forecasters. I just think that if they're gonna make forecasts they should be held accountable for them or just talk about sports without playing nostradamus. You can talk about sports without constantly trying to predict the future but they all do it so that when they're right they can say "see I told you that X thing would happen" but then never bring up when they're wrong.