speaking from experience?

I've played many years of poker and tight is right.

isn’t that why you guys like them young?

you're still your youth damnit.

I just turned 41 yesterday. Time to retire soon.

happy (belated) birthday Spyu

I joined miami in the getting-old-guy-tweaks-back-doing-something-routine brigade. I could make it sound better and say "I hurt my back working out," but I was on the freakin' elliptical machine.

Sigh.

I limp out of bed in the morning Garick - sleeping is too rough. In comparison the elliptical sounds like a battle field injury.


~

Seems the election comes down to Pennsylvania. Without it Trump has lost, with it he is a coin flip or better maybe.

I am now overall buying the record smashing turnout narrative but still hold a little hesitation because obviously early voting in a pandemic is something we don’t have a benchmark for.

It will be an interesting sweat but maybe only because the vote counting will be slower than normal.

~
Vaccine that is marginally effective is to be expected - it has been discussed since early 2020 that coronavirus vaccines are overall pretty useless. But in science breakthroughs are inevitable and given the effort being thrown at this research, I think there is a very decent chance for some new breakthrough science. However it might be a year or more for that event.

Putting a moratorium on more vaccine talk ITT. Take it to the coronaids thread. In fact, imma move a few posts...

Nothing wrong with the posts. They're just in the wrong place.

Thank god for the dedicated mod team. Appreciated

yes and no. Trump is polling behind Biden in several states he needs to win. He's now polling behind Biden in Georgia! but also states like NC, FL, MN, WI, and MI.

PA = MN+WI, he won all 3 in 2016, so it's not like he needs to win PA, he's just polling slightly better in PA than MN or WI

the big thing to look at, imo, from 2016 to 2020 is the polling which shows that Biden has already amassed >50% in many swing states in categories such as "if the election were held today", where the 'Unsure' answer has been extremely small (=< 2%). Clinton, on the other hand, usually polled under 50% on questions like this and the 'Unsure' answer was much higher. The numbers bore out that in 2020 there are less undecided voters than in 2016. The conclusion is that with Biden already being >50%, even if Trump gets all the undecided voters (obviously not getting all undecided voters), he still doesn't beat Biden, which was not the case in 2016.

when you couple this with models being updated and doing a good job in the 2018 cycle, it leads to a very narrow win condition for Trump.

Election night, i'll be watching for the east coast states: PA, FL (lol @ calling FL on election night), NC, GE, and OH. if 2 of these go for Biden, it's basically game over.

also interested to see Texas, which is on the verge of turning purple. if Texas ever turns blue for a period of time, Republicans might actually agree on removing the Electoral College. Dems would start most elections in the mid 200s, probably 2:1 starting positions in favor of Dems. their path to the presidency would be almost impossible to lose every cycle.

congrats, happy belated birthday

Texas going blue is a liberal pipe dream.

Look at the betting markets

I recently re-watched Woody Allen's Manhattan. His character (early 40's) is dating/****ing a 17 year old. It was kinda weird watching a 70s movie thru a 20s lense. Not sure if this stuff was make-believe-its-just-a-movie / standard at the time / is still now / or what.

GcluelessingeneralnoobG

Happy birthday- do you still look like the hulk?

When you say liberal, do you mean actually liberal or do you mean the word republican's use to describe the dems? Is politics allowed in here? I dont wanna get banned


http://defamer.gawker.com/remember-w...he%20two%20met.

woody allen did some bad bad things iirc

i'm not saying Texas is going blue in 2020, i'm saying it's shifting from a deep red state to a purple state and could potentially turn blue in the future

i think the best way to look at it is the US House of Representatives overall voting

2004: R 57.7%, D 39%
2006: R 52.3%, D 44.3%
2008: R 55.8%, D 34.6%
2010: R 64.4%, D 30.6%
2012: R 57.8%, D 38.5%
2014: R 60.3%, D 33.1%
2016: R 57.2%, D 37.1%
2018: R 50.4%, D 47.0%

couple that with the Cruz/O'Rourke 2018 clash and the polling for Trump/Biden, there is a solid uptick of voters for Democrats in the state.

granted, the House from Texas is going to skew Red for a long time because of the more rural, conservative areas, but statewide elections are starting to slide purple because of the metro, liberal areas expansions

538, which I trust more than the betting markets which are dominated by homers, not sharps, has Biden's chances of winning Texas at 34%. Not likely, but not a pipe dream.

Of course, even if Texas does go for Biden, that doesn't make Texas blue in general. Trump is a very polarizing candidate, and likely his numbers in Texas are more indicative of people's reactions to him than to the GOP as a whole.

Garick generally allows it if you stay civil, don't mention nicknames, etc. i generally try and limit what i write about to broad general topics, like election winning/losing, and not specific topics (guns, abortion, etc)

Cool. You can take it at 2-1 with me for as much as you want.

Farhaclause is here.

I’m not really trying to hammer you (this time), but when people make statements like this that they aren’t willing to bet on- to me it’s completely useless.

Reasonable take that I agree with

Politics is allowed in here if it is discussed civilly. Politarding is not allowed in here. The line between the two is fluid and context driven, though the use of derogatory labels and nicknames is specifically forbidden. You can find more clarification of this policy if you search on posts by me ITT with the word politics in them.

"Liberal" is a tough one, as it is sometimes used as a simple description meaning "left of center," and sometimes used as if it were derogatory or incendiary. I'll assume that it is not being used in that way unless context makes it blatant. In the case above, it's not. I really don't want people getting into arguments in here about what does or doesn't constitute "liberal," though, as those types of conversations usually spin out of control. I'd prefer if you take that discussion tot he Politics and Society forum.

my friend is looking to bet $1k on biden vs $2k on trump, I can guarantee it or escrow. He is a well known poker player just likes his privacy. lmk I can book on here or via PMs. I can also just give you his number assuming he is ok with that


***- Got it garick I wont do any politarding

of course, that is why i said 'if texas turns blue for a period of time', i wasn't even referring to this cycle specifically, i'm talking multiple POTUS elections down the road. the 2036 election rolls around and a Democrats win Texas for the 3rd straight POTUS cycle situation.

but the data i put up about the US House in 2018 has very little polarization to it. out of nearly 8 million votes, Democrats got a 47% share. typically getting Republicans to vote, in general, is not difficult, but getting a significant share of Democrats to get out a vote - in a non POTUS election - could be considered a step in the right directions for Texas Democrats

Talking about the election is fine. Discussing the odds of a candidate doing well in a state is good.

Talking about how Trump's energy policy will turn the earth into a fireball or Biden's going to throw the economy into a deep recession is not.