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Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff?

08-04-2015 , 05:22 PM
At my local poker palace last night, I was sitting in the small blind. Five players limp it to me. I look down to see A6. I complete. Players have been hiding their big hands by limping in and waiting for the raise all night, and I'm happy to sit back and nutmine with all those players in the pot. Big blind declines his option.

7-handed to the flop. $14 in the pot pre-rake (we're playing 1-2).

Two diamonds on the flop.
Q 8 7

I'm first to act. With six other players in the hand I'm happy to sit back and watch the action develop. I check. In the unlikely event it checks around, I'm okay with taking the free card.

The big blind makes it $15. He's LAG-y. Three players call, all fairly competent, tightish players, although they're not above chasing a hand every once in a while.

Back to me. $69 in there before the rake.

I have about $180. Other stacks are pretty similar in size, one is $125 or so, the rest between about $200 and $250.

It's a beautiful situation. I can just call the $15 and I'm getting better than break-even odds even without implied odds coming into play. Or I can pull out the semibluff, my standard play when there's an adequate amount in the pot and I still have FE. Or I could bloat the pot, clicking it back? Everyone who bet $15 would throw in another $15, I suppose.

Against one or two opponents, with money in the pot, I semibluff all day here. But against four ... who have all shown a willingness to throw money out there ... is there a more sophisticated play?
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 05:51 PM
Min-raise to $30 and see what happens.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 05:58 PM
While we have equity in excess of our $15 contribution now...

...now is also the time to "go for the gold" and get more money into the pot.

It would not be a bad thing to take down the already substantial pot with Ace high nothing.

It also would not be a bad thing to make it $45 to go and get an even larger pot to play for.

Problem is, if we make the nut flush on the turn we might not get any more action.

And if we don't make it, how much fold equity we have then remains to be seen.

Shove it and love it.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 06:00 PM
I would flat. You have multiple opponents and a nut draw. When you call the effective spr will be around 2 on the turn.

A semi Bluff can easily knock out draws that you dominate.

The only consideration I would give for raising in this specific spot would be to clean up your ace as an out and also that the 6d in your hand would be pretty much the gin turn card for you if you had another nfd. I. E. If you had A3dd here the 6d would not only hit every flush draw, but also T9. Still I think we just call and check raise when a diamond comes in with this many opponents.

Its not that sophisticated, however this is kind of a dream spot and I feel that's the way to make the most money here.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dickwiggle
Min-raise to $30 and see what happens.
A) BB shoves everyone folds back to you

B) everyone calls. Turn Kh

What now in these spots?
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 06:05 PM
Could slide your stack over the betting line collect $69 and tip the dealer.

While stacking chips say something like "too much out there couldn't let you guys draw out".
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 06:10 PM
OOP I'm happy shoving here. Lots of dead money. 25%-50% equity when you're called. Nice chance of taking it down.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sungar78
A) BB shoves everyone folds back to you

B) everyone calls. Turn Kh

What now in these spots?
A) Given description as laggy, tank for about .000012 seconds and dump my chips in pot sloppily. Hit diamond on turn board gives another queen and BB says "where are we?" Dealer calls floor. Floor determines USA - after lengthy discussion - and BB starts complaining that he should have won because would have been a full house in Canada which an old woman tells me means he had three pair. I yell at her while dealer figures out how much to give me. I rack my chips and leave.

B) Ask short stack how much he has. Go all-in. Pull shirt over face and start speaking in tongue until hand is over.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dickwiggle
Min-raise to $30 and see what happens.
Lol this is just the nut worst advice of the day. Any reason behind button clicking?

Flatting is immediately profitable and we can "nut mine" vs smaller flush draws. In a limped pot I'm not to fond of attempting to x raise this board texture. Especially if we have a call happy table.

Call>x raise shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>min raise to 30 and see what happens
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed
Lol this is just the nut worst advice of the day. Any reason behind button clicking?

Flatting is immediately profitable and we can "nut mine" vs smaller flush draws. In a limped pot I'm not to fond of attempting to x raise this board texture. Especially if we have a call happy table.

Call>x raise shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>min raise to 30 and see what happens

Why? Nothing bad happens with min raise. 1) Could trigger one or more to GAI. Witht 25-50%equity and dead money, I'll take that. 2) Could bloat pot to create a more +EV situation if you miss on the turn and u go all-in. People will think you're strong potentially for doing something against the lamestream strategy. If you hit on the turn the size of the pot could induce bluffs or loose calls.

Last edited by dickwiggle; 08-04-2015 at 07:21 PM.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed
Lol this is just the nut worst advice of the day. Any reason behind button clicking?

Flatting is immediately profitable and we can "nut mine" vs smaller flush draws. In a limped pot I'm not to fond of attempting to x raise this board texture. Especially if we have a call happy table.

Call>x raise shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>min raise to 30 and see what happens


It's unclear to me if troll account or if he's really that bad. Frequently, the advice is nut worst. (referring to dickwiggle obv)

Last edited by suited fours; 08-04-2015 at 07:18 PM. Reason: clarification
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed
Lol this is just the nut worst advice of the day. Any reason behind button clicking?



Flatting is immediately profitable and we can "nut mine" vs smaller flush draws. In a limped pot I'm not to fond of attempting to x raise this board texture. Especially if we have a call happy table.



Call>x raise shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>min raise to 30 and see what happens

Flatting is fine and if I had to guess id figure the EV of shoving and flatting are probably close but there are a lot of variables. Callers are capped on this board so we should have tons I FE here.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 08:28 PM
This is what I think BB bets and calls with:

77,88 6
KQ 12
q8,q7 18
87 9
Td9d,Kd7d,Jd7d 3
______________________________________
48 combos

This is what I think he bet/folds with

QJ-Q9 36
50% of Q6-Q2 30
T9 16
50% of A8,K8 16
________________________________________
98 combos

So he folds about 2 times for every time he calls. A lot of fold equity there.

Assuming he covers us, when he calls we will have put $180 into a pot of $414. [180/414]X100%=43% break even equity when he calls.

How is our equity against his range when he calls?

Board: Qd8d7c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 38.14% 38.14% 0.00% { Ad6d }
MP3 61.86% 61.86% 0.00% { 88-77, KQs, Q8s-Q7s, 87s, Td9d, Kd7d, Jd7d, KQo, Q8o-Q7o, 87o }


Should have tons of margin for the times one of the other callers is slowplaying a monster.

I like shoving.

If someone could improve on my math, turn it into EV, that would be awesome. Thanks.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 08:44 PM
If you just flat i think its hard to get value when we hit except from worse flushes. With so many people in the pot people are going to think at least someone has diamonds. Just shove now IMO. Most of the time you win the money, sometimes you are called with good equity and tons of dead money in the pot.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
This is what I think BB bets and calls with:

77,88 6
KQ 12
q8,q7 18
87 9
Td9d,Kd7d,Jd7d 3
______________________________________
48 combos

This is what I think he bet/folds with

QJ-Q9 36
50% of Q6-Q2 30
T9 16
50% of A8,K8 16
________________________________________
98 combos

So he folds about 2 times for every time he calls. A lot of fold equity there.

Assuming he covers us, when he calls we will have put $180 into a pot of $414. [180/414]X100%=43% break even equity when he calls.

How is our equity against his range when he calls?

Board: Qd8d7c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 38.14% 38.14% 0.00% { Ad6d }
MP3 61.86% 61.86% 0.00% { 88-77, KQs, Q8s-Q7s, 87s, Td9d, Kd7d, Jd7d, KQo, Q8o-Q7o, 87o }


Should have tons of margin for the times one of the other callers is slowplaying a monster.

I like shoving.

If someone could improve on my math, turn it into EV, that would be awesome. Thanks.

I can work on the math when I get home. The one comment I'd make is that I think everything you have listed in his bet/fold range, besides QJ-9, needs to probably be discounted because of the vil choosing a full pot/slight over bet sizing, he's simply just not going to make that size bet as often w the majority of those hands. Also we do have other players in the hand so I'm confident that we are called on our all in more than 33% of the time by someone out of the field. All sets call and probably most two pairs depending on where they're scattered throughout the field. That's pretty whatever, we'll still have the equity we need, the problem is figuring out whether weaker draws get bet out in the process, rather than calling; that's how we make our money here, off weaker draws. I'm pretty sure that in most scenarios we end up betting them out a larger %of the time w an all in, but that's still a massive circle jerk in the end.

I'm not saying that I don't think the All In isn't profitable; however once again this is like when someone asks about what they should do w AA when they're facing a preflop 3 or 4 bet... Well, don't fold, you're in a great position, but how do we make the most money?

Last edited by sungar78; 08-04-2015 at 08:58 PM.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 09:12 PM
69 in the pot and you have 180? Shove or fold no if's and's or but's
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 09:22 PM
I really appreciate all the answers.

I don't get to play as often as I want or study the game as much as I want, either! I really like thinking about poker, though, so this forum is great.

I love that every time I go to the casino, I can tell I'm better than I was the previous trip.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-04-2015 , 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
This is what I think BB bets and calls with:

77,88 6
KQ 12
q8,q7 18
87 9
Td9d,Kd7d,Jd7d 3
______________________________________
48 combos

This is what I think he bet/folds with

QJ-Q9 36
50% of Q6-Q2 30
T9 16
50% of A8,K8 16
________________________________________
98 combos

So he folds about 2 times for every time he calls. A lot of fold equity there.

Assuming he covers us, when he calls we will have put $180 into a pot of $414. [180/414]X100%=43% break even equity when he calls.

How is our equity against his range when he calls?

Board: Qd8d7c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 38.14% 38.14% 0.00% { Ad6d }
MP3 61.86% 61.86% 0.00% { 88-77, KQs, Q8s-Q7s, 87s, Td9d, Kd7d, Jd7d, KQo, Q8o-Q7o, 87o }


Should have tons of margin for the times one of the other callers is slowplaying a monster.

I like shoving.

If someone could improve on my math, turn it into EV, that would be awesome. Thanks.

He's lag, his range is larger than this. Also doesn't consider the implied odds on the off chance it goes all in multiway other players who may call all-in on this or any street.

Min raise with plan of gai without ace or diamond on turn best play. .
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-05-2015 , 05:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Doomed
Lol this is just the nut worst advice of the day. Any reason behind button clicking?
The ideal situation for us, is a large pot where we contribute a very small amount of money.

We're almost 100% to have the second-best hand. All the other callers are making a huge mistake.

If we make a large raise, and get heads-up against a better hand that's the worse possible outcome for us.

A huge multi-way pot is the ideal situation.

In a seven way pot it's +EV for us if we have 14.3% equity or more.

Something like this is the likely situation:

Board: Qd 8d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 04.622% 00.00% 04.62% 0 106920.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 07.941% 00.00% 07.94% 0 183708.00 { 87o }
Hand 2: 07.941% 00.00% 07.94% 0 183708.00 { 87o }
Hand 3: 07.941% 00.00% 07.94% 0 183708.00 { 87o }
Hand 4: 42.143% 42.14% 00.00% 974916 0.00 { Ad6d }
Hand 5: 04.622% 00.00% 04.62% 0 106920.00 { AQo }
Hand 6: 24.790% 24.79% 00.00% 573480 0.00 { T9o }

42% equity is about 3/7. That means every dollar we bet, we're on average going to get 3 dollars back. That's more profitable than betting 15 dollars pre-flop with aces and getting called by 72o.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-05-2015 , 06:50 AM
C/R to $55 and shove all turns. If hero shoves, then his hand looks exactly like a FD to any villain with half a brain. Would hero check/jam a set? No, of course not.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-05-2015 , 07:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
69 in the pot and you have 180? Shove or fold no if's and's or but's

Fold getting 4-1/2:1 direct odds closing the action?
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-05-2015 , 09:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smmcoy
The ideal situation for us, is a large pot where we contribute a very small amount of money.

We're almost 100% to have the second-best hand. All the other callers are making a huge mistake.

If we make a large raise, and get heads-up against a better hand that's the worse possible outcome for us.

A huge multi-way pot is the ideal situation.

In a seven way pot it's +EV for us if we have 14.3% equity or more.

Something like this is the likely situation:

Board: Qd 8d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 04.622% 00.00% 04.62% 0 106920.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 07.941% 00.00% 07.94% 0 183708.00 { 87o }
Hand 2: 07.941% 00.00% 07.94% 0 183708.00 { 87o }
Hand 3: 07.941% 00.00% 07.94% 0 183708.00 { 87o }
Hand 4: 42.143% 42.14% 00.00% 974916 0.00 { Ad6d }
Hand 5: 04.622% 00.00% 04.62% 0 106920.00 { AQo }
Hand 6: 24.790% 24.79% 00.00% 573480 0.00 { T9o }

42% equity is about 3/7. That means every dollar we bet, we're on average going to get 3 dollars back. That's more profitable than betting 15 dollars pre-flop with aces and getting called by 72o.
Everyone having the same cards is not the likely situation...
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-05-2015 , 09:20 AM
If you're rolled for the game: shove

If you're not rolled for the game: call
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-05-2015 , 10:03 AM
In the actual hand I insta-shoved when it came back to me.

After much agonizing, the BB folded. One other guy folded a baby flush draw. Two other folds.

"You had set of 7s?" the guy next to me asks. I show my cards. A few hands later the BB moves to a new table.

It's hard at 1-2 for a player to call a confident all-in ... guys have an emotional reluctance to put all their money in when they've been nursing their stacks for hours. They see monsters. In my somewhat limited experience, at least. The same guys who call value bets all day with middle pair fold very good holdings to the all-in.

I've been noodling this around because, in retrospect, it seemed that there must have been a more clever line, but I don't think so. My crude back-of-the-envelope EV calculations show +$38 for shoving, +$20 for calling the $15 bet.
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote
08-05-2015 , 10:07 AM
you won $69 with A high and you most probably folded out better hands than yours. that's pretty much the name of the game.

and don't show the bluff. let them think you had a set
Pulling out the ol' NFD semibluff? Quote

      
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