Don't show. If you think it might be a good spot to show, think again.

nh

Why? What facts about the actors in this hand would make you have any clue as to whether this is a good spot to show? What do you think about when evaluating spots to show a bluff? Your answers was the nut low.

Yeah, I'm not smart enough to get into some leveling war in terms of what I show or don't show. Better not to show. I do it every once in a while just because I think it keeps things interesting, but I know it's not smart.

I showed this semibluff and I also showed pocket Aces, so at least I was balanced when I showed my cards.

Also, I don't see any way that a minraise in this situation is +EV.

You could break it down this way:

50% chance that everyone dutifully puts in their extra $15. That's fine, but considering I'm about 4:1 to hit my flush on the turn and I'm getting 4 callers for my extra $15, it's break-even, basically. Yeah, there's a chance the extra money in the pot will incentivize someone to keep betting even when a flush hits, but ... eh ... not a big factor.

50% chance that the BB shoves. Within this, let's say that 80% of the time when he shoves, it folds to me, and I have to fold too. That means 40% of the time, I put in my $30 minraise ... and end up folding 10 seconds later.

20% of the time when he shoves, he gets one caller before it comes to me, and I call too. Here I'm slightly +EV, but honestly it's a pretty marginal, very high-variance situation. Not a great result.

I appreciate your consistency.

Showing leaves nothing to the imagination.

There are lots of reasons to show a bluff. Get paid off l8er and tilting another player are my two favorites. I also like to advertise fake tells. None of these matter unless dealing with a player who will react appropriately (for our purposes.) I understand it is easy to live by the heuristic that showing is always wrong but the world hasn't been that innocent and simple since 9/10/2001.

Does anyone see something queer about this maths?

Im not going to derail this thread with a pointless debate trying to convince you that you are self deceived.

I suggested in my earlier post what I would have said (if anything I might add) to the table as I stacked my chips.

He's rounding off and in one case considering equity with 1 card (turn) to come and in the shove case considering 2 cards to come... Other than rounding I don't think it's queef unless I'm missing something.

50%+50%+20% does not add up to 100%

80/20 is his distribution within the second 50%.

I am unsure if this is serious advice. How is our decision only shove or fold when we have the nu flush draw and we have better than direct odds to call the bet? There is a lot of trolling going on in this thread.

I'll be completely honest, I am more of feel player than I am a math player. I think math has its place and I am striving to get better at it.

My advice was to call over shoving because calling is instantly profitable and we are able to allow weaker draws to make a second best hand. Shoving can get a lot of better hands to fold but I think in a limped multi way pot it's just very optimistic that we won't end up being called pretty often.

In your long mathematical rant you are failing to realize something I consider obvious. When we min raise we reopen the action to the original better who can then elect to re raise us. This would get us in the exact position that you seem to think shoving gets us into. The difference is we don't get to take advantage of fold equity. Instead we are left calling off our remaining stack in a situation were we are up against the strongest part of villans range. In that situation we have only our worst case equity scenarios were we are up against Two pair or better.

It was generous of you to do the math, because the min-raise idea is beyond terrible. It's not a consideration.

You were given nice odds to hit your hand, so calling was reasonable, but OOP flushes can be hard to get paid off unless flush v flush, which is of course even harder to hit your card then. You chose the FE route, an excellent choice here.

Generally we show in the moment for emotional reasons. It is best to train ourselves to never show. If a LAG crusher with amazing instincts wants to show, fine. For the rest of us, we think we're handing out deceiving info when we show. But anybody good has just picked up info on our preflop tendencies for example. Some people only call and never bet draws, now our opponents know we're not one of those. And so on.

Good points. Would love to see your math.

+1

+1 Fold equity and information are precious in this game. (thanks Bip)

+1. Folding would be bad.

I'm just curious if you are including the times the turn is a diamond and you double up. Not saying I don't like your line because I think you make a very good point. Lots of players react to big bets in different ways. The problem is we don't ever get called by worse draws when we shove in this scenario because our opponents are playing tighter vs large bets.

I'm just glad you didn't min raise. NH well played IMO.

i think the times we turn or river a and double up is a very low % of the time, even with only $180 behind in a $84 pot (if we call the $15)

its the obvious draw and there are 4 other people in the pot. are hands even as strong as sets really going to go nuts once a 3rd comes?

and we're in the SB completely OOP, so either we have to bet it - which folds out a lot of made 1 pair hands, probably any straight draws, and possibly even hands as strong as bottom 2 pair - or we check and hope/pray that someone bets it. if someone does bet it, are we really getting much action if we check/raise?? probably not too much. so basically we have to call and do the exact same thing on the river. we're just not going to get AI very often in this spot though. the few times will be if someone spazzes with the K high flush or a set, but a set is extremely unlikely given the action OTF

W Just going to start off by saying I don't think shoving is bad at all and it may very well be best play. In fact with OPs reads in the results post it is likely the optimal play.

That being said I think calling has plenty of merit. When we flat we allow worse flush draws to stack off. I don't think it's even debatable that a worse flush is not stacking off. That being said I thinks even debatable that sets and 2 pair are finding folds. We can modify our bet size to get calls from worse hands on the turn. If we bet small enough we still get paid by plenty of worse hands. Depending on the sizing and the amount of callers river can often times be a trivial shove.

Granted donk betting isn't the best line but I think it's far better than checking the turn so long as our sizing is reasonable. With an SPR of like 2 and 2 more streets of betting we can easily still get stacks in. I just don't see enough villans folding 2 pair to a small donk bet of say 35-45. This goes back to ops read that villans will call smaller bets with garbage like 2nd pair etc but fold to that massive shove.

Let's say for arguments sake we are in a better position. Are you more likely to flat call or are you still shoving. Is it worth having the ability to flat call when we are in position because we think we are more likely to get value/prevent he turn from checking through?

if we call OOP, i'm not saying everyone folds if a 3rd comes, i'm just saying getting value becomes immensely harder and i just dont think many hands are stacking off. a baby flush draw was one of the folded hands. we might get value from it, but getting AI by the river will be harder

if we're IP in this hand, calling as an option goes way up IMO, not that shoving is bad in this case either, there is always a case to be made for winning 40bb with A high without showing your hand, but when we are last to act we can bet with all the information in front of us and adjust accordingly.

I like the reasoning for Flatting if were in position. It is however very hard to argue with being able to pick up 40bb without a showdown. My biggest reason for Flatting I suppose is that it's lower variance and it's not very often that we get to call with a draw profitably. Shoving was perhaps a more +ev play in this situation.

completely understandable, that's why this was my 1st post on this hand