Facial tell is key. It could be a distressed naked tp that called the flop. I would check/soul read ott. That's not a great card for you.

An alternate line could be to turn QQ into a bluff if he has an 8. Bet 12bbs ott and bomb all rivers.

I'm not too sure. I think he is correct to defend quite a few 8x here, certainly any suited gapper+ A8s and so on, and he'd generally flat the flop too.

As played I probably bet to bet/call and call any brick.

idk what ILCD is saying lol. We have way better hands to barrel/bluff with.

I think checking can be okay vs a stabby player but I think it's conceivable that against good players you want to c/c c/f any brick rivers, but call when a draw hits; the reason is this, regs will often put you on exactly QQ and so on when you c/c turn and expect you to call all bricks, whereas if a draw hits they will turn everything else into bluffs.

It seems pretty read dependent, I don't feel like OP's reads so far is enough to sway me either way.

As default I tend to bet.

Yea it's tough w/o reads. I agree with posters saying live read should include a fair amt of FDs in his range.

If villain is calling wide enough to have any 8X in their range they should also have draws, some over pairs we beat and possibly even things like 76. If they are more tight then there are not a lot of 8X in their range or other random hands that hit flop, their range is now mostly JJ-99 and flush draws. Either way, I expect flush draws make up a good chunk of villains range for continuing. I would bet 10BB here.

River is a common situation with no exact answer unless we catch a queen, where I'm always betting into villain. Otherwise, brick or not I would lean check but lead some of the time. Against an unknown taggy villain, I don't expect a lot of river bluffs so I'm inclined to fold if the river completes draws and he bets. This reduces to a lot of soul reading at that point though.

Either check/calling or bet/folding is fine IMO.

Bet to get value from his draws and possibly overpairs.

Check/calling is more deceptive and can get you more value from any pair he has since, if you were to bet, your range is like 90% overpairs. Few people check an overpair in your position, so you might induce two barrels from missed draws, too, so I might check/call any river.

Easy bet. I like 11bbs

Huge majority of his range include draws/ worse pairs which we need to charge/get value from.

Not to mention we protect our range for when were barreling with like overs and a fd (although that's not the greatest card to do that on)

How the hell are we turning our hand into a bluff here if he has 8x? He is nevar folding.

I am probably bet/calling the flop

On the turn I am ch/deciding with leaning towards ch/folding if he is checking back SDV and ch/calling if he can thin value bet and bruff.

Can you explain why you like b/c here? I can think of arguments for b/f and c/c depending on reads (my default here would be to b/f 10-11BB), but am having a hard time constructing one for b/c other than "he's trying to level me with a draw because I'll think most draws raise on flop if they're going to raise at all + he might think I'm a Baluga monkey" which is giving a relatively unknown LLSNL villain a lot of credit.

leveled

definitely not leveled

ha well I mean he is right, if we bomb both streets we probably are bluffing.

I would tend to b/f ott. Many 8x are in his range, and the flop funny face could easily be 8x. V can also have draws here, and worse pairs, but how does he play 8x versus draws? From what I've heard, I think V raises turn with 8x and calls with draws.

Villain dependent but I'm likely bet calling here. I mean, QQ is close to the top of our range here. Against some villains I'd be bombing here with AK type hands so I'm definitely betting turn 10-11bb ish.

I may bet fold against really straight forward villains and it depends to a certain amount on my table image too, but I think this is bet call.

Hero bets 4BB, V makes a weird face and pretty quickly calls

Turn (14.5BB) 8

Hero bets 10BB

Villain takes ~3 seconds to raise to 24.5BB, giving off no sign of nervousness. In other words he looks fairly calm.

Hero?

To explain, I meant this specifically against a reg or player with any kind of aggression in them; they know that peeling a draw on the turn looks really really bad as we will seem to c/c a lot of rivers that brick and c/f lots that he hits so he has terrible river expectation, but at the same time we are perceived to have very very few 8x, and a lot of betting hands that are not 8x, so because he can rep 8x perfectly, this card is actually pretty meh for our range. In his shoes at least, I'm considering raising my entire range that isn't strong enough to flat on the turn vs a lot of players, especially since I know regs who bet/fold this way too much.

I only really bet/fold here if I am sure he plays 100% straightforward, but the fact is, lots of players will flat trips here too because they think it looks so obvious (the same reason why they raise a bluff because it looks exactly like trips), so I just feel like since we are perceived to have a bet/fold here so often, and with a fairly strong range, it is sort of FoSsy in a weird convoluted kind of way.

If guy is just clueless and goes "I haz trips I raise", then I'm like wtevs good bye.

I probably call that raise but I honestly feel that I want more reads than that.

There are lots of people who are generally fairly calm when bluffing, but take way more time with value hands (me being one of them) so I don't know if I pay much attention to that read. If anything, 3 seconds seem way too short for a value hand.

The average low stakes player isn't bluffing here, and unless he has shown signs of being bluffy or clever, I fold. If villain is better then average, this is a good spot to bluff since it is very unlikely you have any 8X in your range but he could. If he could be bluffing, then flat his raise and see what happens on river.

Given the little information you have on villain, he look like he might like to gamble a bit and might over value top pair, which raise the chance he actually has the 8 and he has seen you call down with an overpair on a fairly scary board, which leans against bluffing. However, he also seems competent, so you can't remove bluffs from his range entirely.

With very limited reads on villain, I'm leaning fold but would call here some of the time, say 1 in 4 or so. With better reads on villain this could be wildly different.

I solidly agree with your rational on call/eval but I'd switch 3b/call with 3b small/fold in this hand anyday.

Given that we raised pretty early pre and it was small, and a small-ish c-bet HU, it's possible V can have either some floating hands which turned better equity (Axhh), draws which improved but still are super unlikely to win at showdown (9T and 56hh) and complete air with the intention of firing or bluff-raising a lot of turns in position because there are a lot of gross turn cards for us.

I think 3betting (3b shove of course) is worse than calling with the intention to check/eval the river because 3b shoving is only getting called by trips, boats and OESFD's at worse, which would still be gross because his pot odds are less than 2-1 if we shove and he needs slightly better than that for OESFD.

Calling gives us the opportunity for him to fire his missed draws on the river and shut it down if a terrible card hits because we would have only committed 31.5/110 BB in this tricky hand. I'm happy to x/c and go meh if he shows an 8 because this kind of player could easily be capable of repping that. Additionally, our passive AA play factors into this although we did call all the way through when top pair paired OTT so it can be really debatable. I just think folding is too weak here.

What pocket pairs lower than QQ can we put in villains range? I think that based on his KQ hand, villain can think he's raising with the best 2 pair hand on this turn.

I think call>>fold>>3! here. There's still a lot of draws we're ahead of, and there should be a reasonable % of air too.

Hero spaz jams, j/k. ;-)

We have limited info, but view villain as competent. He bought in full, he's youngish, so must have some agression in him. Its very hard for us to have an 8 in our range, making this a great spot to bluff. Plus he saw us c/c all the way down in the AA hand, perhaps he thinks we're a little passive on later streets and he can get us to fold our AK, overpairs, and whatnot by raising his draws here. so this turn gives him another way to win the pot now.

We're getting a decent price to look him up here as well. He doesn't have to be bluffng very often. He may be bluffing with 99-TT as well. I agree w/Sol that if he binked gin ott, he'd take more time with his value hands. Some villians snap raise to give the illusion of strength.

I check call here with a plan to check most rivers to him. If no draws complete I'm calling a fair amount of the time. If we bink a Queen, I lead river small to induce.

Okay cool. That makes a lot of sense if I'm villain. I guess my concern is just that, well, I'm not villain.
This is essentially why I default to b/f. Your points are well taken though. So would you agree that in villain's shoes, the best play is to raise both draws and trips here?

Versus an aggressive opponent I think check/calling here is > bet/calling

Realistically he shouldn't have too many 8's in his range but because he is the button straddle and you didn't raise large enough PF he might

I probably call irl, getting 44/14 (2.5ish to 1) on this call. But I think (now in the calm, not at the table) that fold is the better play. No reason to think this villain is aggro or too tricky. OP shows a simple value line by villain. This near min raise is probably value. Can't tell if villain has a lot of draws in his range with this line, but I doubt it.

Agreed that TT, 99 (and maybe JJ) are in his range, but I doubt 66 or lower. That is still very few combos. The bigger question is the draws you mention. I don't put much (or no) air in villains range.

Starting to do some ranging/combinatorics on this (very interesting hand, btw, Ticketmaster):

Villains range:
TT, 99, plus one combo of JJ = 13 value combos we crush;
56 (16 combos), 69s (4 combos), AT-A9dd (assuming he 3bets AK-AJs pre), A6-A4dd, A2dd, KJdd, KTdd (8 combos), some more diamond draws, but the question is, would he call flop and raise turn with these draws. I think most TAGs do the opposite. Sorry if this is obvious or basic thinking.
A8 (8 combos), 78 (6 combos, but maybe should only count 3, since villain should raise flop), 98 (8 combos), T8 (8 combos), 68 (8 combos), J8s (2 combos), Q8s?, K8s?, 58s? = 37 combos, not counted Q8s, K8s, 58s.

I see 13 value hands we beat, and 37 that beat us. Unknown about the draws. I highly discount them, but I could be wrong. Unknown about the air. I have to go, but I am still leaning toward a fold. Will revisit later today.

If you take all the offsuit combos out of 65/A8/87 because he probably folds them pre, it looks a lot different.

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 44.5% 44.5% 0.00% [QsQc]
Player 2: 55.5% 55.5% 0.00% {TT-99, JdJc, A8s, AdTd-Ad9d, Ad6d-Ad4d,
Ad2d, KdJd-KdTd, J8s, T8s, 98s, 96s, 86s+, 65s, A8o, T8o, 98o, 86o+,
65o}

Board: [8d 7h 3d 8h ?]

Anybody disagree with the assumptions in this range? What would you change?