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PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action

10-18-2013 , 05:06 AM
I'd welcome your opinion on this hand with reasoning supporting your course of action.
Many thanks in advance.

Hero - Had been at the table for about 5.5 hours since it opened and had managed to build stack up to 1100. The table was good with 3 bad players and lots of limp calling once someone started the value train.

I had won two significant pots, one where UTG(a friend who I play my hand against but where we don't go crazy heads up) had opened to 20, 1 caller and I'm in the BB with JQd. Board 10d Ks 8d, as it was a friend, the flop was checked, turn bought an Ac, I bet 20 keeping it friendly, he raised to 60 so I called. Turn 6d. I bet 175 and he snapped with a turned set of aces.

Another crucial hand was where a loose aggressive lady raised to 20 UTG 3 callers to me and I make a loose call in the hJ w/ 4 7hh as our effective was 600 and knew she saw me as loose and bluffy and knew she could pay me off if I made a hand. She made a comment 10 minutes before about me squeezing light all the time in the blinds and she had called and won a couple of smallish pots against me calling me lighter but hitting the board. 6 players to the flop and the flop is 5c6c8d. She leads out for 45, folded to me, I raise to 120, everyone folds she flats. Turn is an Ah. She checks I, bet 180, she calls. River is another A. She checks, I ship and she calls and I win the pot.

Overall I had been playing quite tight against the 100bb stacks and much wider when the 3 big stacks of 200+bbs were opening pots, for the implied odds. They were all capable of making mistakes.

In the previous hour I had taken a few stabs at pots in the right spots and taking a few down and occasionally I'd been caught double barreling light, particularly against the lady I flopped gin to and the guy to her left who is villain in this hand I will describe next.

Villain is a stocky rec casual player aged in his late 40's, fancy product sculptured hairstyle, designer thin side burns, wearing trendy designer smart clothes and blingy rings, a heavy gold chain and a huge Breitling watch and Ray Ban aviator sunnies dangling on his collared shirt.

He was certainly the player who I had my sights on the most as he was know to be the value. He had also been playing since the table opened and was in for 2 buy ins. He was quiet but fancied himself as a good player and was capable of spazzing out, overvaluing TPTK or committing a fair amount of his stack with TPMK or even middle pair and also chasing bare draws OOP with incorrect odds. He was in seat 9 and I was in seat 2.
He had recently paid me off presumably chasing draws, calling decent flop and turn bets on drawing boards and check/folding rivers.

I think he saw me as someone who was a bit loose and capable of moves. I was in for 500.

OK onto the hand.

Effective stacks 1150. I had took a 15 minute walk half hour previously and upon my return he had more than doubled his stack and had me covered, sitting with around 1340.

I open UTG with AA to 15, 1 caller in mp and folded around to villain in the SB who immediately and confidently announces 55 and puts out 11 red chips. Standard open was 15-20 for most players regardless of earlier limpers.

Hero raises to ................?
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 05:14 AM
Raise more pre, 25-40. As played 4b to 225
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 05:44 AM
Just to add, this was the first time that I had noticed villain 3bet anyone pre flop and he usually just check folded or check called post flop oop or made half pot post flop bets with reasonable hands that he thought he was good with. Overall he was passive and of good value.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 05:46 AM
165. 225 is too big imo, he probably folds a bit more and we can get stacks in easily anyway on turn/river.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 05:50 AM
Click it back, let him spazz if he wants to. If not, even calling his bet preflop is easy enough to get you AI by the river, by doubling the pot size you could probably be AI OTT if you wanted to.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 06:03 AM
Anything less than 225 or so gives set mining odds, and 225 sets up a $225-400 flop bet and turn shove if he calls. He's probably only getting it in with KK anyway and set mining everything else.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 06:10 AM
Sure, but we don't want to fold out his lower pairs.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 06:11 AM
4bet to $170. This is enough to deny set mining odds. He will be getting 10:1 in total odds including implied which will give him the illusion that he has set mining odds.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 06:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trakk
Sure, but we don't want to fold out his lower pairs.
True, but we DO want him to make a mistake with them. I only suggested a clickback because we have a passive opponent who is giving action. I certainly don't expect the betting to end there. wj94 is certainly correct if we think there is the slightest chance that the betting will end after our raise.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 06:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster65
True, but we DO want him to make a mistake with them. I only suggested a clickback because we have a passive opponent who is giving action. I certainly don't expect the betting to end there. wj94 is certainly correct if we think there is the slightest chance that the betting will end after our raise.
Described villain will make bigger mistakes postflop though. Basically I think we should be raising the largest amount such that he never folds anything in his range. Or clicking back could work too.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 02:00 PM
170 seems right.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 03:03 PM
I'd probably make it 160.
225 seems too high, he's going to let go of most of his 3bet range.
Unless you're really getting the signals that he's ready to play for stacks then and he'll call.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 07:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trakk
Described villain will make bigger mistakes postflop though. Basically I think we should be raising the largest amount such that he never folds anything in his range.
This was my thought process exactly.

I wanted him to call with medium PP's through to QQ and AK AQ AJs KQs and reraise with KK. A 4bet to 200 - 225 folds out a lot of hands I want him to stay in with and I wanted to have the opportunity to win a whole lot more than his 55.

I was also had the benefit of position.

I decided to 4bet to155. My plan was that if the flop had 2 cards 9 through to K, would be to play a little more cautiously and if villain was to play with confidence and if I got any reads, I could potentially fold an over pair if it was clear villain wanted to play for stacks.

Villain without any hesitation calls straight away after immediately asking the dealer how much.

Flop Kc 6s 8h

I thought this was a good flop for me. If there had been a 10 J or Q on the flop I'd have been slightly more concerned.

Villain confidently donk bets 200 with 2 stacks of reds.

I think that my next action is quite straight forward but I'd welcome more thoughts on my 4 bet sizing for the reasons I have given.

What's villains range in this spot given the description and action so far?

Hero..............?

Last edited by BIGFISH72; 10-18-2013 at 08:02 PM.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 07:43 PM
easy flat
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-18-2013 , 08:54 PM
For those of you who say open more, on this table and in general my standard opening raise is to 15 UTG with all pairs 70+% of the time. Opening to 25 with a big pair would be unbalanced in my opinion and I think players could put me on a much narrower range and I had not been opening much at all from UTG, UTG+1 in this session.

Believe me, when someone opens 10-25 in EP, once a player to the left calls its so often starts a value train that every man and his dog then jumps on. Oftentimes, a player in RP then looks at all the dead money and squeezes.

I was hoping for this outcome and I got my wish.

Opening to 25, still gives set mining odds and I'm often going to be against 3-4 villiain and in a tough spot OOP.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 03:01 AM
Is this guy ever flatting your 4b pre with KK?

Is this guy turning his [JJ-QQ, AK] into a bluff here?

I probably flat here, but I'm looking for the exit. Not really wishing to lose $1150 here.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 03:31 AM
My thoughts on the possibility villain flatting KK is as follows.

Villain quickly asked the dealer how much the call was and then straight away put the further 100 out in front of him.

If he had KK, I would have at least expect a pause for a good few seconds, to look at me, my stack and to at least think about a 5 bet for a moment.

Once he flats, I'm thinking a pair 1010-QQ was more likely and the 6 combos of AK.

So on the flop I'd be more concerned to see a 10 J or Q.

I really don't think that he would be daft enough lead out on the flop with JJ QQ.

If he did have KK I really don't think he'd lead with top set.

Sent from my GT-I9100 using 2+2 Forums

Last edited by BIGFISH72; 10-19-2013 at 03:41 AM.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 04:05 AM
4betting small to keep his range wide then folding when he donks would be beyond terrible. To the turn we go!
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 04:29 AM
I like the 4bet size pre, raising more will probably get him to fold his more (relatively) marginal hands, and as someone said it will allow him to make more mistakes postflop. I raise bigger if I'm OOP.

Flop is a flat. Some V's spaz out here with underpairs (TT+) and a raise will fold them out. Obviously you can be up against AK but it's better to keep our perceived range wide. OTT I probably raise all-in (provided he bets) on every card except a K (but I don't fold to a bet, at least not OTT). If he checks a blank I make a smallish bet (~$200), which he probably won't fold to and which sets us up well for the river. I check back a K turn and re-eval OTR.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 04:21 PM
Since he donks 200 right into you, I would be weighting his hand a bit more to a simple pair of Ks, most likely holding AK, low odds of KK but a possibility. That's how I normally interpret donk bets, to mean they have a decent top pair hand.

I would just call and I would be looking ahead to simply call this down most of the time.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 04:39 PM
I feel this 3-bet sizing normally is about perfect. However, in this spot with effective stacks where they are I think I may bet more. Regardless of sizing your hand reads QQ+ and Villain may call 100 more thinking he has implied odds to stack you in this spot if he makes a set. AP, I like calling and getting value from him spewing 99-QQ on flop. I really believe AKs is more likely than KK in this spot given preflop action. The turn will help narrow his range as only a maniac leads twice into a 4better with PP's here. On river I imagine he shoves with set or checks AK.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 10:12 PM
Thanks for your views thus far.

Now, here is where it gets interesting and I'm hoping we get more useful discussion and some sound advice.

Turn is 4c making the board Kc 6s 8h 4c

I have the AcAd.

Villain pauses for about 8 seconds and confidently announces

'All in' for effectively a PSB!

I pause, asks the dealer to confirm his action and she says 'player's all in'

My initial though was "far canal!"

The whole table goes quiet, I look at villain who's not giving anything away and looks comfortable with the occasional glance at me which sitting upright and alert. Comfortable with AK or KK?

There is a sea of $725 of sprawled red chips between the board and the dealer, plus villains remaining stack and I have $745 in front of me and villain has me covered by about 200 bucks.

I go into the tank for a good minute. The whole table is looking at me, I even say to the table there is only one hand that beats me.

20 seconds later, villain asks confidently and firmly. 'Did he say call?' The dealer confirmed no, the player is yet to act.

This statement threw me even more. Did he really think that he heard me say call or was it some kind of level/deception??

If I really wanted someone to call me in his spot with me holding top set on this board, the last thing I would do is ask if the played had said call? I'd think that villain would think that I'd want a call and could find a fold easier.

Could he shove with AK, I believe that yes, this player would. With the image I think I had, in villains mind, I think that he could believe that he was good BUT does he not stop to think that I could have a set, of Ks, maybe 88 even or AA to beat him.

Does he bet a set on the flop heads up? Does he bet top set?

There are 6 combo's of AK possible, 3 combo's of KK and do we consider the combo's of 88 and 66??

Does he always 5 bet KK, possibly not? Does he always 5 bet AA OOP, he should but........?

I was on a knife edge, not because it had anything to do with any kind of stress or the money, the buy in was less than 1% of my roll, but I really didn't know, I could have flipped a coin. A big part of me wanted to make the call because of the 6 combo's of AK to the 3 of KK.

The player certainly wasn't a nit and I don't think he goes any further than level 3 thinking. If he was a rock or regular who I knew was a sound thinking player, well a fold would have been much easier.

If your in this situation what on earth do you do? I think it's extremely close taking into account everything.

How many times do I have to be right to make this call against someone whom I had only played this 1 session with, someone who was running good??

Last edited by BIGFISH72; 10-19-2013 at 10:20 PM.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIGFISH72
Just to add, this was the first time that I had noticed villain 3bet anyone pre flop and he usually just check folded or check called post flop oop or made half pot post flop bets with reasonable hands that he thought he was good with. Overall he was passive and of good value.
Hate say it, but this seems like a puke fold to me.

I'd need to see him play AK exactly like this before wanting to burn off almost 300bb.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 11:01 PM
I'd be calling here from V's description and his most likely perceived description of you. How often does this V donk a set on the flop here?. If its wrong, I don't think it would be wrong very often.
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote
10-19-2013 , 11:03 PM
egh guess I skipped that part of the description... Flip a coin?
PAHWM 2/4 200 to 400 Buy in .  Crown Casino, Melbourne.  AA UTG deep, facing significant action Quote

      
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