What's so scary about this flop?

Easy raise to $300.

Better than a TJQhhh flop, but against a range of 77-KK and AKhh it's 48/52, and against a range of 77-KK plus AKhh removing all combos that don't include a heart, I'm a 33/67 dog. While I don't think he raises 77-99 UTG very often if at all, it's still a possibility. I had just sat down so no idea what happened earlier or if he was on tilt or anything.


Board: 9h 8h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.494% 45.64% 02.85% 15363 960.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 51.506% 48.65% 02.85% 16377 960.00 { KK-77, AhKh }



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.610% 30.21% 02.40% 6579 523.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 67.390% 64.99% 02.40% 14154 523.50 { KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, 99-77, AhKh }

Board: 9h 8h 7h
Dead:




Removing 77-99 from above is still 47/53:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.515% 45.59% 00.92% 5868 118.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 53.485% 52.56% 00.92% 6765 118.50 { KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AhKh }

if you raise, is he calling KK/QQ/JJ?

my guess is hes calling TT, hes calling KK, hes calling QQ/JJ if he has a heart in his hand

I think he only calls a raise with KK, JJ, or TT with a heart, or AKhh obviously. QQ is probably a fold to a raise even with a heart, and JJh would probably not call a raise either I would guess.

still a pretty good range to get value from imo

77-99 is less likely because hes folding pre a lot to your 3b

although the one thing im concerned about is it would make sense for him to lead 77-99 but i think he'd c/c or c/r over pairs w/ a FD - i know this is different from what i said earlier

I think calling is the most profitable play here. If it goes in on the flop we will only be slightly ahead, specially if he has an overpair with a heart and some kind of gutshot. Calling also makes it look like we are possibly drawing and lets him continue to barrell his hand. Alternatively you could just shove all in and that would be my second optoin.

Dont agree with shoving flop

Were not getting called by worse

Probably shouldn't say this but I'd really only be raising with semi-bluffs in this spot. I think he's "seeing where he's at" a lot here. Unless of course the villain is B. in which case he will never fold anything ever. Flat the donk bet and own his QQ.

I don't like how your read changes ITT. It's mainly a matter of emphasis. In the first post you say he "probably" only raises big pockets, and in the second you say 77-99 are possible. It's confusing.

But, in any event, when you think something is probably in someone's range, you can deal with that in stove by assigning a probability that he'd raise with 77-99, and then count that number of combos in his range. So if you're 85% sure he's only raising JJ+, then you can represent the 15% probability that you're wrong by including, say, 1 combo of 77, 88 and 99 in his range when you stove this hand.

77-99 are not in the raising ranges of most 70 year old guys. I'd represent the probability in stove as maybe 2 combos, max.

It's unlikely he raises 77-99 UTG but still possible. Good idea on eliminating some combos in pokerstove to weight the hands, had not thought about that. Still a pretty bad flop since any 6, T, J, Q, K, or heart is a card that could leave me drawing dead or close to it. A raise commits me to calling a shove or shoving turn myself. At the time I was trying to figure out if he was leading to see where he was at or to induce a raise so he could shove. Will post next action later today.

3bet to 60$....if he folds, he folds. Next hand

I agree with mpethy. your reads are inconsistent

I'm putting villain's range as TT, JJ, QQ with a discounted AKx. I don't think he would donk the flop with a non heart pair

unfortunately, you're a slight dog against this range . I don't see what raising accomplishes other than turning your hand into a bluff. since our equity increases on a bricked turn, I would wait to raise a bricked turn card

my plan: 1) flat flop 2) fold to a turn card. 3) bet or raise a bricked turn

Did not see this prior to my last comment.

Here's what I get...

PokerCruncher-iPhone V.6.1.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 50.3% 49.3% 1.99% [AdAc]
Player 2: 49.7% 48.7% 1.99% {KhKs, KcKh, KdKh, QhQs, QcQh, QdQh, JhJs, JcJh, JdJh, ThTs, TcTh, TdTh, AhQh+, AhKs, AcKh, AdKh, AsKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhQs, AcQh, AdQh, AsQh, AhQc, AhQd}

Board: [9h 8h 7h ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500000 trials


It's running very thin but at the end of the day I'm folding. It's your judgement call with how you want to play it given stack sizes.

Do you routinely forfeit 50% equity when you're getting >2:1 immediate odds? There is 1 combo of a made flush in his range per OP's reads, AhKh. Why are we handing the pot to QxQh, JxJh, TxTh for one bet?

endodocdc is right on with his assessment. We should use our position here to take a card off and shovel the money in on a brick turn.

I agree with this. Flat flop bet, try and get to showdown. FWIW, I think there's a non-zero chance he still has an overpair with no heart, also. (sort of turning his hand into a bluff). Remember, he thinks we're FOS here, so we've got AK and he's still got the best hand much of the time (in his mind).

I think you get the most out of this hand by just value raising the flop. He has maybe one nutted hand that beats you if your preflop read on his range is good. AhKh almost certainly doesn't take this line. I just don't think he has much of a folding range at all on the flop after taking this line - you are crushing it.

Additionally, he's going to be betting the turn a ton - and you could attempt to raise on brick turns if you think he will get it in wider this way (I don't), but there are tons of bad cards for you which will cause you to lose value vs some of his QQKK JJ? combos which aren't folding to a raise on the flop.

Cliffs: Raise flop 275

most of his range is sets, overpairs with hearts, and unpaired overcards with a heart. most of his flush range is nut hearts so not only are there few combos of that but he prob doesn't lead out so strong so quick with a nutted hand. in position you can play pretty easily on later streets against this range, especially since he likely slows down on blanks with stuff like JhJx and AhKx, and also on a scary turn card if he flopped a set and you can maybe turn your hand into a bluff. raising is throwing that advantage out the window and getting heaps in drawing stone dead or flipping.

Flat call flop is best. putting in a raise here anything other than all in could induce him to spazz with an overpair and a heart. If we do raise we want to protect our hand as anything that he has probably has decent equity. Therfore a fold is a good result. Shoving might also look spastic like maybe we are doing it with nutflushdraw or something. Nonetheless flatting keeps in his entire range and he will barrell all blank turns and make the mistake of committing himself. I do not agree with putting in any raise other than a straight shove, but again calling is more profitable as he will barrell alot of turns incorrectly.

I thought TT-KK with a heart or 99 were the only hands he would lead out with here. 99 is probably the bottom of his UTG raising range. Since there were so many bad turn cards for me and shoving flop probably only gets called by a hand beating me while getting no value from his draw overpairs when he folds them, I decide to flat the flop and re-evaluate on the turn hoping for a brick card. Pretty much any raise on the flop commits me to calling a shove and calling off ~$550 on this flop with AA and no redraw didn't seem like a good idea at the time.

Action continues...

Hero is dealt AA

V raises to $15 from UTG, UTG+1 folds. Hero re-raises to $60, folds around to V, who insta-calls. I think we can discount KK/AA as possibilities since he didn't even seem to think about 4betting.

Flop ($123): 789

V leads for $100. Hero calls.

Turn ($323): 8

Great turn card for me. V checks and says "go ahead" which I think means his hand is now on the weaker side and he may not even have a heart in his hand, otherwise he might have just shoved the turn himself.

Hero?

Looks like we're slightly worse than 60:40 against his range. Unless you've got a read that his little speech is some sort of trap, I like betting out $250 here to commit ourselves, fully expecting him to spite-shove with this whole range. Then fist-pump call and cry when he shows us 99.

Board: 789*8
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****59.21%**59.21%***0.00%*{ AdAc }
MP3****40.79%**40.79%***0.00%*{ 99, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, QdQh, QhQs, QhQc, JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, TdTh, ThTs, ThTc, AhKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc }

check back to get calls from weaker overpairs on the river

bet 200/call

shove safe rivers

against some players i think theres value to shoving this river as they might call off with KK/QQ with a heart. but i think this nitty player would fold those hands. bettting a little under 2/3 should get value from worse hands and i think he'd even shove worse hands with a heart draw too.

this would be my line against this specific player if there wasnt a heart draw on the board

edit: or at least a line i might consider

That seems like a great turn for you.

70 yr old raising utg almost never has a boat here.

I'd bet around $175-$190 and hope to get called.

I can't see this vil leading the river even if an unfortunate heart falls now that the board is paired.

I want him to see the river here.

I'm pretty much eliminating any nutted hands from his range, ie no AhKh or 99
I still think his range is ThT JhJ and possibly QhQ

Ordinarily, I would size turn bet in order to make a river shove for value feel doable for villain....But here based on your dynamic with villain I would just shove , expecting to get called by pretty much his entire range which we are ahead of now.
The thing is, he isn't going to call a shove on a bricked river with a hand like ThT, whereas he can call turn shove with it