Totally agree w/ your range except I'd include Ahkx, but does 70yr old man call off his stack on a paired 3 flush 3 straight board w/ a hand that potentially has 0-4 outs?

I don't see that happing often despite the dynamic w/ hero.

I have a hard time seeing this guy putting all of it w/o a nutted hand.

agree with this post. he doesn't have to call it off too often for us to get a lot of value out of the shove but i dont know if he ever does on a paired board where a lot his heart draws aren't the nut flush.

i think we get most value by betting anywhere between smallish, 170-200, and then shoving all safe rivers.

re: the part in bold

Yeah, never say never... I would include one combo of AhKx in villain's range, but He is just not going to donk flop with a near pot sized bet into the PFR with a "draw"..at least not 100% of the time....whereas, he "can" donk the flop 100% of the time with his value range...at least that's how I see it

Also, the whole donk line from villain pretty much translates to: "I have a pair, I think you have AK, I'm going to make you pay"

JoeyyyyyG, what you are forgetting here is the money already in the pot. Even if we were behind, we have positive EV with our equity in that money. As it is, your analysis shows that we make money here, even without the dead money in the pot.

Why would we ever fold when we are ahead? Just because it's only by a little bit? Bad logic.

I see your point and I'm not disputing. This is my unique style of play; I'd much rather play against the smaller stacks than go HU versus a competent opponent with TP on a nasty flop without a redraw.

It's shown high success for me over the past two years and it makes me sick thinking I would want to get my (deep) stack in [for this particular hand] when I can just fold, be patient, and wait for a better opportunity against a less formidable foe.

So passing up +EV for tilt control? OK, but not something I'd advise.

Lets assume that your range is correct and (for the sake of math ease) that the hand ends when we call. It costs us $100 to call and get 50.3% of $323, or $162.47. That means that the expected value of calling is +62.47. That's a LOT of value to pass up just because you are afraid of feeling sick.

It's cash, not a tournament. Passing up +EV to "wait for a better opportunity" is a logical fallacy. You can still take that better opportunity, even if you lose, by buying more chips. In this particular case, as OP notes "nobody else at the table has more than ~$250,"even if you double V up, you will still have the rest of the table covered without even re-buying.

There's definitely value in tilt control. While we'd ideally have the mental fortitude to shovel all of our money in with even the slightest edge ... the reality is that most of us can't. Mitigating the effects of tilt is a good intermediate step towards eliminating it entirely.


When the old geezer checks the way that he does I read him as either weak or bull****ting me with a monster. That's a player specific type of read, depending on our history and the way that he reacts to the turn card.

I still think he's on an overpair, but his old man nittyness hates the spot. So I think we should bet to avoid letting any KKh or QQh see a free river. A lot of those hands are going to call and I want the value now while we're ahead. Some of the non-H holding hands should also call (some will fold).

The question is the sizing ... if we bet $200 into the $320 pot and he calls we'll have $240 left on the river with a $720 pot. I'd hate folding if he lead a heart river and I doubt that he'd c/f with a H in his hand. Betting any larger on the turn may as well just be a shove. Less gets just about his entire range to tag along

If he was the type to think I'm FOS with a shove and call with KK I'd consider it. Here I think I bet about $235-250, call if he ships, then call or bet most rivers. I'm torn on checking behind H rivers or betting if he checks. I expect a reluctant c/c with a flush out of him.

shove turn he will level himself into a call alot.

Good input in this thread. As played, I bet $220 on turn, he quickly calls. River is a beautiful brick with 3. He checks river, obvious shove is obvious, he folds TT face up and did not have a heart. I think he played the whole hand pretty horribly and there's really no way he calls a turn shove there, so I probably got max value or close to it. I doubt he would have called a flop raise too, other than maybe a min-raise since he would basically be committing $600 to an OESD with two extra outs. Flop actually ended up being good for me, otherwise he probably just check/folds when he misses his set.

What is pot size and effective stack size on river? You don't think there's any bet size that gets TT to call? Even like $150, giving him the opportunity to put us on A K?

Just wondering if we can squeeze out a bit more value, seeing as he already thinks we're full of crap.

He had about $220 left on river. I don't think he calls any river bet...maybe like $40-50 since the pot was so big, but I think not shoving river is leaving value on the table because he may call with QQ/KK after putting in ~2/3 of his stack already.

wj94, Out of curiosity, what would you have done if you had AK here?

Would you have 3 bet preflop?

If yes, would you have raised the flop? If yes, why not raise with AA (no heart)?

Also, How often does Villain call our 3bet preflop with 77-99 (or since you say he only raises big pairs and AK, can we totally take out 77-99 from his preflop raising range)?

Also, if he always 4 bets preflop with KK+, can someone please stove our hand against a hand range of (99-QQ, AK)?