good job...I've felt like reply with something positive, but not sufficiently so to make an account.

lol so are you really bitching about getting a room by yourself?

this weekend or later in december?

Ya I needed to create a login.

I wouldn't have gone through the effort if there was one other comment on the blog.

I mean the whole 5 people might care if I died thing made me feel like I should attempt to help the guy out.

It just feels too degen not going with someone. I can't do that.

haha i'll be in vegas and we can chill I'll just be at a different hotel

i mean, unless sleeping next to me really matters that much

18 Schools.

Rejected:
George Washington
Georgetown
Medical College of Wisco
SIU (whoops only take downstate illinois)
U of Chicago
Wayne State

Interviewed:
UIC

Smallpooled:
Rosalind Franklin

Upcoming Interview:
Tulane

Pending:
Cincinnati
Loyola
Northwestern
Oakland
Rush
Miami
Toledo
Louisville
Michigan

Ha of course not. But I don't want to count solely on hanging out with someone I've never met. What if we don't cross paths or whatever.

then you play a bunch of poker and have a good time but if you book a hotel I'll pm you my cell

I am unfortunately going to be slumming it at 1/2 and 1/3 but it will be fun

if i win the lottery i will stake ~half of the posters itt in the main event

@Tom Dwan's son:

Some math to know by heart to quickly come up with odds:
A event with chance 1/x of happening each try, has the probability of NEVER happening in x tries of ((x-1)/x) ^ x... you don't need to memorize this, all you need to memorize is that it always approaches:
(1 / e) = 36.8%

How to apply:
If there are 175 million different powerball ticket combinations, and you have a ticket a,b,c,d,e,p - and you let the machine spit out 175 million more random tickets - there is a 36.8% chance your ticket is still unique.

So even when you hear that the odds of NOT chopping were near impossible, that is probably wrong. I doubt they sold enough tickets to make the odds so small. For instance, the odds of chopping this upcoming powerball jackpot are only around 50%. You can use that 36.8% memorized number to know that if less than 175 million tickets are purchased, the odds of a unique winner is > 36.8%.

In this case the math works out to ((175mil - 1) / 175mil) ^ 100 mil... which is 56.5% chance the ticket is unique. (event was repeated less than 175 million times, only 100 million times so the odds of unique are > 36.8%)


More practical application:

Line up 13 cards face down (random from a shuffle) and tell your buddies - You will pay them $10 on $20 bet if they can guess the rank of any 1 of the cards. Bad math folks will say they have a 1/13 chance * 13 cards and the odds are 100% they will get one right... which is way wrong. Remember the magic number... they will miss all 13 close to 36.8% of the time. (12/13)^13 = 35.3%. It goes to 36.8% as the number X gets bigger. (i.e. line up all 52 cards and have them state suit and rank, they will miss all 52 36.4%).

So everytime they try the rank trick for $20 you make $0.60... Not huge, but better than dealing blackjack.

that's approximately what my opening range is at 1/2 and 2/5. I'm telling you, and I really don't think I'm exaggerating, that I have been getting dealt those hands approximately 5-8% of the time. It's really boring.

It doesn't really matter because when I do get hands, people shovel their chips in my face anyway. I think I've flopped a set ~75% of the time I've had a pocket pair in the last 2 months, so I'm still making money.

The variance has been a bit rougher in the past couple weeks, but it happens.

Last night I got dealt 98o in LP and my heart fluttered a little bit because I was so excited that I finally got dealt a real hand. Raised over a couple limpers and cbet a AT7r flop and took it down.

*oops - don't try the 13 card gamble without reshuffling for each card shown.

More proof of how lol-bad you are.

But also:
You raise my hand, yet you fold the same hand, in the same situation (4-way pot vs an opener), on a better flop.

LMAO results oriented much?

You had a way better flop and situation.

yeah I really don't get the fold with TT on an 886 flop, call and hopefully the flop is HU on the turn

Also big difference between facing a 100$ bet otf than facing a 75$ bet otf.

lol

I know it looks like a small difference. But fish don't think like that. Postflop in 2/5 if the first bet is a 100$ chances of that person folding is slim and 1010 is no good. 886 flop can't be manipulated later in the hand. The board is too strong otf. Its a raise or fold situation otf and I picked fold.


1010 on a 9c,8, xc should be a crime to ever fold facing a 75$ bet. You have to call or raise. Folding is not an option in that situation.

I had a bit of a timing tell on the river. I believe villain would have taken longer to ship with QQ+ (or possibly c/c). Also, I have two blockers to straights so I'm not very worried about those.

Pretty horrible flop to c-bet. It smashes their limp-calling ranges, there's already a possible straight out there (which makes for a lot of pair + gutshots that people get sticky with). And you never want to hit top pair on the turn only to be drawing dead to 86 and lose more money. Most of the hands they fold there are hands I'm already beating, like AT or KJ. Against those hands I'd rather bluff-catch, or let them catch an inferior top pair. Something iLCD doesn't understand.

With my button raising range there I could have many hands that connected with that flop. But that's not the important factor here.

You're vastly overestimating our fold equity here.

Also, I already mentioned it earlier, but with AK, the hands you fold out are the hands you'd rather keep in, like worse aces/kings. I'd much rather bet QT than AK here, specifically because if we hit top pair on the turn with AK, we're always good against other 1-pair, but we don't want the pot to be too big. Like I said earlier, the worst thing that can happen is we turn an A/K and someone already has 86 or a set. With QT you can immediately fold out better hands (making bluffing more attractive), and can turn nut straight possibilities. Having only a backdoor flush here isn't enough.

I had a read on the river yes. I've owned this particular villain many, many times.

I have uncanny instincts on my hero calls. I think it's the way I can re-construct every detail about a hand, remember past hands, and look for little tells during a hand. It's not magic, but these are all things that add up and lead me to the right decision.

Hero calls are do to bad play early in the hand. I guess its something you didn't know.

Smashing their "l/c range" should never be defined or thought of. We won't be cbetting a ton of good boards with that thinking.

how do you not know this kind of stuff sabr

If I had c-bet that flop, I would have made the first limper fold (the guy who bluffed the river for $200 with KQ) and the other guy would have called me with a pair. Then when the pot is HU on the turn, he probably puts me on AK and I can't win the pot.

By keeping everyone in the pot, the second guy didn't call the river because he was worried about me being behind him and laid down the best hand.

So LOL at you.

This is a big point here, I'm more likely to c bet something like QT, Kx suited here vs normal 1/2 villains because the fold equity I realize here is generally vs. tight players who miss with ace high or something like that.

I still think it's a check a lot because it does pound limp calling ranges.

Hero calls usually happen because villains polarize their range.

Last paragraph should be cause for a banning