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[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? [Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play?

03-27-2012 , 12:32 AM
Recently my finances have been a bit messed up. I've never been in this situation before. I'm young and still learning, so please bear with me. I am looking for older, wiser people to help me make sense of my situation. I am now relying on poker to make a bit of extra money on the side. If you are a professional poker player, I am seeking your guidance right now.

My Current Financial Situation

Right now I have obligations and a lifestyle that require me to spend at least about $2500-3000+ every month. This is a bit high considering that I am currently under 21 years old. Please allow me to elaborate.

I attend University (on full scholarship), and I pay for all of my own life expenses. I receive little support from my parents, and currently am very fortunate to have $0 of long term debt. I pay for base expenses like food, gas, car insurance, rent, utilities, and text books (and poker books too, haha!). I do admittedly however, make plenty of "want" purchases like choosing to live in an expensive apartment complex, dining out frequently, and owning a high maintenance vehicle. I pay more than half of my roommate's rent (he is my best friend and has never asked anything of me financially, but he can't afford to live here otherwise. His rent is the difference I would have paid for a one bedroom as opposed to two). I believe that if I had cut back my hardest and hadn't signed a 12 month off-campus apartment lease half a year ago, I could have feasibly cut my expenses to less than $1,500 a month, and lived very comfortably considering that I have no tuition expenses. However, it is what it is. I am locked into the situation and these expenses are going to hit me until the end of this upcoming summer whether I or my wallet like it or not.

I have semi-passive cash flow coming in from a business I started a couple years back. However, the revenue from said business is seriously dropping off these days and I'm not sure I can rely on it in the long term. This concern caused me to look into new ways of making money, including poker. I've invested hundreds of hours into this "venture", and my results are minimal live and horrendous online. However, I've recently come to a breakthrough in my live play in the last month or so and believe I am finally a winning 2/5 player, though I have much room to improve. I am currently looking to put in a lot of hours to establish a good sample size.

Cash flow: +$2000/month (from business)

Expenses

Rent: $1055/month (Would normally be about 700 a month. My roommate is a hard worker both in school and his personal life, he's not just freeloading)
Groceries: $400/month
Car Insurance: $120/month
Internet: $60/month
Various subscriptions (netflix, spotify, etc): $60/month (Luckily my parents do pay for my phone bill! Thanks mom and dad.)
Dining out (this covers a lot of my meals, thus lowering grocery expenses): $600
Electricity: $90/month (I expect this to rise this summer!)
Other Utilities: $50/month
Gas: $200/month (This one is inflated because of poker, I have to drive 80 miles to get to the nearest legal card room).

The easiest way I see of cutting my expenses is to dine out less. The other stuff I can't do too much about. I'll be moving to a house with a bunch of friends in about 5 months and my rent expense will only be $500-600 at most. This is a temporary situation that I have to trudge through.

So that equals roughly $2600/month and doesn't include any random expenses like oil changes, going out with my friends on vacation for Spring Break, etc. I'm young and I want to experience life, so I'm going to have to spend money. I have a variety of random obligations like periodically sending money to support my grandparents as well.


Here is a breakdown of my liferoll and bankroll:


---I have about $50k invested that isn't liquid (I shouldn't have access to this money in the near future). This is mentioned so responders can understand that I am not necessarily under-rolled for 2/5 when you look at the big picture.

---About $3,500 liquid in the bank after I pay off my credit cards and the rent this upcoming month (April). Don't worry, I always pay on time!

---About $4,000 cash once my roommate gets me next month's rent. The last session affected this figure a lot. I had in excess of $5k before.

So to be realistic I only have access to $7,500 right now. I don't feel very comfortable with this because it's all I have to work with and I also have bills to pay. On the bright side, I do have that $2,000/mo cash flow as I stated earlier.

The last five 2/5 sessions I played looked roughly like this:

1: +$1000 (Slightly positive variance)
2: +$1000 (Good play, with terrible opponents.)
3: +$1000 (Good play, with terrible opponents.)
4: +1000 (Positive variance in this session. I played a big pot badly on the flop and turn, and was rewarded for making a good read on the river.)
5: -$1500 (Variance, resulting a bit of tilt, and a tougher, less profitable game)

Now with that extremely limited sample size, my hourly win-rate was sitting at a bloated $132/hr. (I understand that such figures are not likely sustainable, especially for a relatively inexperienced player like me). With some bad variance hitting me last time my hourly dropped to $68. I also lost a good 15-20% of the money I have access to.

The positive side of this bad session (both in terms of variance, and play) was that I once again learned that I needed to be more conservative with my bankroll and finances in general.

What should I be doing to limit my risk of ruin and decrease variance? A few more losing sessions like the last one and I'd be really worrying about my situation. On the plus side, having such a limited life-roll really forces me to think of ways to make money! If I have to, I'll get a real job this summer to keep things afloat.

So far I've thought of the following:

---Table select and find the softest game possible

---Tighten my range

---Work hard to increase my edge

---Play a short buyin ($300) 60BB (Most of the time I start out with a short buyin and build my stack to $1000-2000 before cashing out).

---Table change and reduce my stack size after winning big pots (Basically, cash out when I am risking too much.)

As you can see, the problem with some of these solutions is that they theoretically lower my winrate. Playing shorter stacks decreases my edge and caps the pot against weaker opponents playing deep, and over-tightening my range would make me more predictable and cause me to play less hands per hour. I'm having difficulty figuring out where the balance is.

I will gladly accept any advice regarding my financial situation as a whole from some of you who are older and wiser in terms of poker and life in general. Thanks in advance for your help and consideration!

Last edited by WealthyDegenerate; 03-27-2012 at 12:44 AM.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:08 AM
Continue with what you are doing, you seem to have a good straight mind going.

Start buying in for $400 (80bb).

Keep table changing seeking good games, good luck.

Eat out less and start buying groceries. Also if you are buying produce, I can't help but stress buying ORGANIC. Everything else I can live with, buy spend the extra dough on ORGANIC produce. It is good to learn how to cook for yourself. Women like it and you will like it.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:09 AM
What is your rationale behind buying in for 80BB?

Thanks
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:12 AM
You are pretty close to an 8k roll, correct? Lets start bumping up our win-rate.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:12 AM
Kinda hard to take you seriously when the obvious solution is to cut your expenses. The best way to reduce variance is to play well and not tilt. You can't do much else.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Kinda hard to take you seriously when the obvious solution is to cut your expenses. The best way to reduce variance is to play well and not tilt. You can't do much else.
Only thing I see really doable is the dining?
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:17 AM
Ikes--

I completely agree with you. However, there are certain things that I can't change or that are not practical to change.

I am locked into a lease that would cost just about as much money to break as it would to move somewhere else as there are only 5-6 months remaining.

As I stated in the post, I can definitely dine out less, which I plan on doing.

Gas I can't do anything about because I basically just drive to the casino and school and that's 90%+ of any gas I use.

Car insurance, Internet, electricity, water... can I really cut those expenses? Not really.

Definitely could cancel my subscriptions to things like netflix and spotify, but that would save me about $20 a month. Not exactly a +EV life compromise in my eyes.

The way I see things, I would rather find ways to make more money than cut back on expenses. Especially when it's not like I'm going out to the club every weekend and buying bottle service, or throwing $200k down on a Lambo. I'm living a comfortable lifestyle, not an extremely excessive one.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1ns71nct
Only thing I see really doable is the dining?
Yes, thank you for understanding.

I do have close to an 8k roll, but it's also my life roll. The two are kind of intertwined right now. Honestly, if I went on a $3k downswing, I might consider foregoing poker to retain some financial security. I really don't want to go ask my parents for help.

I am putting some pressure on my roommate to grind it out this summer and pay for his share of the expenses though. That could lighten the load a bit. We'll see!
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:22 AM
Then the only answers really are play more and play better. Short stacking doesn't reduce variance, in fact it often increases it. (Think about it, the most profitable street for you is going to be the river because you're going to get it in 100% ahead way more than 100% behind, if you are short you don't get that bet). Short play leaves you with basically the flop and maaaaybe the turn, you're not going to be much more than 60% on those streets overall.

Getting out when you have too much on the table is reasonable, but I don't really see that happening too often at 2/5 with a 7-10k roll depending on roommate paying.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:26 AM
Am I right in saying that you need to cover $600 per month to break even?

1. sure fire way to limit risk of ruin and decrease variance would be to get a part time job that guarantees you to $600 per month you can the use poker as a (hopefully) profitable sideline

2. drop to 1/2 where the play is softer and the variance is lower. Sure it'll take you longer in terms of hours, but you're actually properly rolled for the game vs being under rolled for 2/5 and there should be less variance because a) you should have a greater edge over the other players if you think you're a winning 2/5 player b) every bad beat is a smaller proportion of your roll, because you're properly rolled and c) you'll play closer to optimally because you're properly rolled and not playing with scared money

3. ldo - cut the $600 per month from dining out and eat in and then all of a sudden...you only need $200 per month to supplement your income
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:27 AM
Funny how you guys are giving financial advice to a "wealthy" degenerate.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:28 AM
Study poker, about the most +EV thing you can do. Post hands and get information, don't just take any advice, be selective.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:38 AM
Good point on the short stacking. Limiting my buyin to smaller amounts gives me a higher # of buyins, which I thought would decrease variance and RoR. It's also easier to play a shorter stack in most cases, because you can commit with just an overpair or TPTK in many situations.

Also a note on the 1/2--because I have to drive 3 hours back and forth to get to the nearest casino, and gas costs $25-30, and I'm putting wear and tear on my car, and the general accepted max winrate is like $25-30/hr... 1/2 is just psychological death for me. Also the 2/5 game that I play is (usually) ridiculously soft, sometimes easier than the 1/2 game. I also find it more predictable in some cases, because you can assume that players are thinking and you actually have FE in most cases.

The part time job thing isn't really worth it in my opinion, assuming you meant a typical college job. If I have to, I will get a job this summer that should pay upwards of $30-50 an hour so it just doesn't make sense to me to work for like $8 an hour at some random minimum wage job. Summer break starts in just 7 weeks for me, so I have enough cash to float until then.

I already have poker and full time school among social obligations that take up my time. Having a part time job at this time would be -EV in my eyes.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:49 AM
if your life roll is $8000k and you are not even sure that you are a winning player, play $1/$2, and move up when you are beating the game for $20/hour over 200 hours.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 01:54 AM
That is a reasonable suggestion and a conservative approach. But I have an out. My $50k invested. I can get some of it out if I really have to. Also I'm fairly confident I am winning at 2/5.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 02:05 AM
Do not play $1/$2 if you're beating $2/$5....

You are right, some $2/$5 tables play as bad as a $1/$2 table.

Play like an uber nit from anything but HJ, CU, and BUTTON.

Stay away from good villians, exploit every ****ty one for as much value as you can. If you go on a downswing, don't be too good to drop down to $1/$2 if you need to just to get your confidence back.

Tell your friend to get a ****ing job.

Also, stop eating out so much.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 02:09 AM
Eat at the casino, problem solved.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 02:12 AM
ewww don't eat at casino. That seriously about as hygenic as eating in the bathroom.

(At least as teh table)

HH is full of nasty food anyways. I only eat teh buffet when it's given to me for free.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 02:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
ewww don't eat at casino. That seriously about as hygenic as eating in the bathroom.

(At least as teh table)

HH is full of nasty food anyways. I only eat teh buffet when it's given to me for free.
Dude, how are you a pro? If I'm hungry and the game is too good, ill eat . I have seen known famous pros eat at the poker table in a tournament. Why does every pro but you eat at the table.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 02:19 AM
Seriously Pokah?
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 02:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaUlater
Seriously Pokah?
Don't ever play cards hungry.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 02:29 AM
Haha I've eaten at the table plenty of times. Even when the table wasn't that good. I wash my hands, then play with one hand. Eat with the other.

My friend's priority is school which is understandable. Also I offered the deal to him. He's paying the difference I would have paid for a 1 bedroom apt. Basically I would still be spending at least $900-1000+ for rent here, even if I was living alone. Internet bill is what it would have been. He probably increases my utilities by like 70% but thats less than $100/mo. He's kinda freerolling but he does the dishes and helps me with bitches so it's all good.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 03:01 AM
Bring a few Clif protein bars, subside your hunger. Don't touch the bar, touch the wrapper.

Water only.

Does anyone not tip the water runner?
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 03:06 AM
I generally just go up to the drink machine and fill up my own cup with water so I don't have to tip. Gets the blood flowing. +EV!
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote
03-27-2012 , 03:20 AM
Hopefully you understand poker, or this is all just silly...

Real life bankroll, just like poker, is all about the small things. Everyone worries about the all ins (house, car, etc), when they dont realize that their roll is getting chewed up by all their limp/folds. I mean, sure, bad river decisions will kill your bankroll too, but even the fish put effort into those decisions.

If going out to eat costs you 20 bucks, and a frozen pizza would cost you 5, thats 15 bucks every time you eat out. 5 times a week, 52 weeks a year? thats 3,900 extra bucks a year. Smartphone? 200-300 bucks every couple of years for the phone, 30 extra bucks a month for the phone. thats ~600 bucks a year.

And remember, money is cumulative. If you dont eat out for one year, you will be 3,900 dollars richer for THE REST OF YOUR LIFE. If you had chosen not to buy that pack of baseball cards when you were 12, you would be $3 richer right now.

Also, dont buy things for your friends, it only makes for bad situations. He may be a great guy, but that makes it all the more reason to not put money into the middle of it. If he cant pay, he cant pay, that's that. its not your job to support him. Ive made this mistake before, and its screwed up friendships.
[Need Your Advice Please!] My Live Bankroll/Liferoll, and how to Reduce Variance in Live Play? Quote

      
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