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A friend of mine, who is a slight winner at 200 NL online, claims even those who are small losers at his level online can make a decent living live at levels up to 5-10 NL. He says he has earned ~50/hr over 1000 hrs between 2-5 and 5-10 (east coast, FW and AC). I believe him. So the question is, why are the 200 NL marginal players online banging their heads there when they have it so easy live?
Downswings are much more brutal live, because they can last so much longer. You read guys on the board talking about their 20,000 hand downswing in a game that they are otherwise crushing. If that were to occur in live play, that represents 4 months of full time grinding! Fortunately, all the extra information you have live helps to reduce variance somewhat, but it still occurs, and you simply can't play through it as quickly.
And, for the record, I think $50/hour is certainly achievable -- probably even expected from a very good player -- at 5/10NL. It represents about 10ptbb/100, which I see as kindof a longterm watermark for crushing a game. Numbers much higher and lower than that will surface over any span of a few months tho, even from the same player in the same game. . . .