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Old 07-21-2008, 03:00 PM   #1
higHstaKesOwneR
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*LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

hey boys,

so i just want to get a clue of what you can expect live as a winrate in mid-/highstakes fullring games

with mid/highstakegames i mean the average nl5/nl10 and nl20 game in which you play with atleast 100bb stacks but most of the time way deeper... the games are obv. wayyyy weaker then onlinegames...
so how many bb/h do you expect as a onlinemidstakes winningplayer in this games?

anybody here you can give some numbers?
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Old 07-21-2008, 03:48 PM   #2
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

Well lets play with some numbers here.
Lets say you win the following rates online:
2.0/100 Average Good Player
4.0/100 Above Average
6.0/100 Darn Good.

Id say you would win more live...so lits bump it up by 50%

3.0/100 ($60 per 100 at 5/10)
6.0/100 ($120 per 100 at 5/10)
9.0/100 ($180 per 100 at 5/10)

It takes approximately 2 and a half hours to play 100 hands.
There fore divide the online winrate by 2 and a half giving you:

$24 per hour
$48 per hour
$72 per hour

- Tips

Then Doulbe those numbers again, since Live poker is so much worse!
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Old 07-21-2008, 04:17 PM   #3
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

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Then Doulbe those numbers again, since Live poker is so much worse!
This is true imo...or at least what I'd aim for.
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Old 07-22-2008, 04:28 PM   #4
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

thanks for the answers

yeah so you think winning 5-10bb/h is a realistic winrate?
this is also about what i was expecting but just want to hear another opinion
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Old 07-22-2008, 05:14 PM   #5
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

I can say with very certain confidence that my live winrate (at 2/5 in pendleton) is WELL over 10 ptbb/100.
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Old 07-22-2008, 05:20 PM   #6
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

honestly throw big blinds out the window... in deep stacked NL live cash games the blinds are basically meaningless
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Old 07-24-2008, 02:47 PM   #7
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

a good hourly is 10bb/100

if you play lower limits it's 15+
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Old 07-25-2008, 01:45 AM   #8
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

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Originally Posted by PartysOver View Post
a good hourly is 10bb/100

if you play lower limits it's 15+
are you talking about 10bb per hour or per 100 hands?
10BB/100hands seems to be not very much for livepoker
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Old 07-25-2008, 01:50 AM   #9
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

I think he meant per hour.
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Old 07-25-2008, 09:11 AM   #10
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

yea per hour, my bad
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Old 07-25-2008, 04:08 PM   #11
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

lol itd have to be over 10 at 5/10
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Old 07-27-2008, 03:41 AM   #12
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

Be wary of anybody claiming over 10BB/100 hands at anything about 1/2NL. Without PT to correct selective memory and exaggeration, the numbers tend to be. . . inflated.

Also, it takes over 3 hours to play 100 hands live. Occasionally close to 4.
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Old 07-27-2008, 06:13 AM   #13
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

and it take one overpair to make 200bb in a hand
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Old 07-27-2008, 07:42 AM   #14
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cl0r0x70 View Post
Be wary of anybody claiming over 10BB/100 hands at anything about 1/2NL. Without PT to correct selective memory and exaggeration, the numbers tend to be. . . inflated.

Also, it takes over 3 hours to play 100 hands live. Occasionally close to 4.

wat? Since I've been keeping records (started when joining 2 + 2)....I've averaged over $30 per hour playing 1/2 (NL300)....and now over $60 per hour playing 2/5 (NL500)....and I'm not very good at poker.

Of course, this is only happening because of the generosity of the guys from this forum...and a few guys from the NL100-NL200 forum.
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Old 07-28-2008, 11:20 AM   #15
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

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Originally Posted by cl0r0x70 View Post
Be wary of anybody claiming over 10BB/100 hands at anything about 1/2NL. Without PT to correct selective memory and exaggeration, the numbers tend to be. . . inflated.

Also, it takes over 3 hours to play 100 hands live. Occasionally close to 4.
well you can't complain the best possible winrates online with the best possible offline

you can compare the skill of a ton nl200 livegames to nl10 onlinegames...
and i doubt that a good midstakesonlineplayer will have trouble winning more than 10BB/100hands when 1tabling nl10 online :X
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Old 07-28-2008, 12:55 PM   #16
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

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Originally Posted by cl0r0x70 View Post
Be wary of anybody claiming over 10BB/100 hands at anything above 1/2NL. Without PT to correct selective memory and exaggeration, the numbers tend to be. . . inflated.

Also, it takes over 3 hours to play 100 hands live. Occasionally close to 4.
Had a typo in my original post. Sorry about that.

What I can say is this: my observed experience at 2/5NL in live casino play, averaging 10 hours live per week usually during the evenings on weekday, has me winning $28.53/hour. I think I have about as good an edge on the game as anyone else I've seen at the table on a regular basis. I win about 2/3 of my sessions there, and my winning sessions and losing sessions both average about 1 BI, with outlier sessions being +-2 to 4BI. At 25 hands/hour, I guess I'm conservatively winning 20 Big Blinds/100, or 10 Pokertracker Big Bets/100.

I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but I feel like I know (by face) most of the AC regs now, and I can't think of anyone that I think is crushing the game much bigger than that at the moment.

Since Live players don't have convenient tools like Poker Tracker, we must resort to other methods. Most live players don't have the discipline or honesty to figure out exactly how well they're doing. I've just had too many 2-3BI losing sessions strung together to know the downside of variance and how it can erase a months' worth of wins in two sessions regardless of how well you're playing. These are the kinds of streaks that don't make it into many players' assessment of how beatable games are.
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Old 07-28-2008, 01:35 PM   #17
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Katman View Post
wat? Since I've been keeping records (started when joining 2 + 2)....I've averaged over $30 per hour playing 1/2 (NL300)....and now over $60 per hour playing 2/5 (NL500)....and I'm not very good at poker.

Of course, this is only happening because of the generosity of the guys from this forum...and a few guys from the NL100-NL200 forum.
You're claiming an average win rate of 48 Big Blinds/100 hands at 2/5NL AC, even after rake, tips, and variance?
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Old 07-28-2008, 02:32 PM   #18
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

cl0r0x70, i have a friend who is/was an AC pro living there for about a year and he was doing 55/hr at the 2/5 game...

last i heard he commutes from NYC now.. he had a tough time in the 5/10 game though so i dunno
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Old 07-28-2008, 02:40 PM   #19
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

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You're claiming an average win rate of 48 Big Blinds/100 hands at 2/5NL AC, even after rake, tips, and variance?

Yes...but it's over a small sample with most of the hours on the weekends.
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Old 07-28-2008, 02:53 PM   #20
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

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Originally Posted by PartysOver View Post
cl0r0x70, i have a friend who is/was an AC pro living there for about a year and he was doing 55/hr at the 2/5 game...

last i heard he commutes from NYC now.. he had a tough time in the 5/10 game though so i dunno
I've had similar friends who've strung together 6 months like that. And then they have their first losing month and they get suspiciously quiet about their win rate. . . . You gotta realize that, broken out to 25 hands/hour, this represents 47+Big Blinds/100 hands. That's gotta represent a goodly amount of "running well."

The question is this: when you ask your buddy about his win rate, does he give you his "usual" win rate, or his "average" win rate? I could easily (and honestly) say that I "usually" do about $50-$60/hour. However, that wouldn't be counting uncommon -- but important -- events like the big downswing I had last month. . . after all, those downswings aren't "usual", right?

There are some things about my posted win rate:
1) I can only play during the week. The best games with the biggest fish run on the weekends. I'm sure I could win more if I were able to game select more, but my family is more important to me than win rate. I'm sure people who play exclusively on weekends (a lot of NY commuters in AC fit this description) would see their win rates drop once they had to play more hours during the week.
2) I went through a period of "loose" bookkeeping where I would've sworn to anybody that asked that I was making $60/hour. And then I tightened up my bookkeeping, and a more "true" rate started to emerge.
3) Maybe it's the economy, but I've noticed a lot more of the 5/10NL guys frequenting the 2/5NL tables, or at least splitting time between the two. This has made the games quite a bit tougher. My last session, there were 4-5 very good aggressive guys at my table, and only 1-2 fish, which is definitely not my usual experience at the Borgata on a Thursday. Maybe there's just fewer fish willing to spew $500 to the table than there were a year ago?
4) It is honest and accurate.

Last edited by cl0r0x70; 07-28-2008 at 03:00 PM.
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Old 07-28-2008, 03:13 PM   #21
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

it sounds like you'll never believe anyone can make more in that game than you. and that's fine. but to answer your questions, i trust what my friend says a lot. he's not sheepish about talking about his bad days/swings/months. he played 8hours/day for as long as he was down there and kept insanely detailed records. I havn't talked to him much recently, but i would bet like $10000 that what he told me at the time was the truth.

Of course he could have been running hot for the year he played full time down there, but I dunno. Also 25 h/hr is a low estimate. That's all I really have to say about it, you don't have to believe.
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Old 07-28-2008, 03:38 PM   #22
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

well i am not sure how many hands a really played live on avg. some say 25 some 35 but whatever i don't know anythink about the structure at the 2-5NL game at AC but here in germany/austria most of the 2-5 games have a max buyin of 1000€ up to unlimited and till the games are most of the time very loose and the standard pfraisesize way bigger than online i guess these games also play much more that a nl1k game... same for the nl1k games who are most of the time also deep... i also don't know about the different rakestructures in dif casinos but as an example i now from an 2/4€NL and a 5/10€NL game here where they start taking a 5€ rake at 100€+ pots but the 5€ rake is also the cap and i guess that's why better than structures in most other casinos trough i am not sure...
but only making 5bb a hour in a game that also tends to be kinda deep really don't sound to good :X
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Old 07-28-2008, 03:48 PM   #23
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

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it sounds like you'll never believe anyone can make more in that game than you. and that's fine. but to answer your questions, i trust what my friend says a lot. he's not sheepish about talking about his bad days/swings/months. he played 8hours/day for as long as he was down there and kept insanely detailed records. I havn't talked to him much recently, but i would bet like $10000 that what he told me at the time was the truth.

Of course he could have been running hot for the year he played full time down there, but I dunno. Also 25 h/hr is a low estimate. That's all I really have to say about it, you don't have to believe.
Not at all; I'm sorry if my post sounded arrogant. Definitely not my intention. I know there are players out there who can do better than me. . . and the day I stop thinking that is the day my game stagnates and I start to lose.

What I'm saying is that people routinely post win rates that, when you think about them, are unrealistic when you break them out in BB/100. There's just no way to sustain some of these win rates. The online guys track hundreds of thousands of hands before they think they've narrowed things down pretty well. A full time live grinder only sees about 5000 hands/month.

It's entirely possible to run well for months on end and think that's the way it always will be. . . ez game, right?

I'm not calling your friend a liar at all. I'm just saying that nobody kills any game long term for 45BB/100. Nobody. However, do I think you could do that over x thousands hands over a period of weeks or months? Absolutely, especially if you find yourself running well as the stacks get deep.
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Old 07-28-2008, 04:04 PM   #24
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

Quote:
Originally Posted by higHstaKesOwneR View Post
well i am not sure how many hands a really played live on avg. some say 25 some 35 but whatever i don't know anythink about the structure at the 2-5NL game at AC but here in germany/austria most of the 2-5 games have a max buyin of 1000€ up to unlimited and till the games are most of the time very loose and the standard pfraisesize way bigger than online i guess these games also play much more that a nl1k game... same for the nl1k games who are most of the time also deep... i also don't know about the different rakestructures in dif casinos but as an example i now from an 2/4€NL and a 5/10€NL game here where they start taking a 5€ rake at 100€+ pots but the 5€ rake is also the cap and i guess that's why better than structures in most other casinos trough i am not sure...
but only making 5bb a hour in a game that also tends to be kinda deep really don't sound to good :X
In AC at the Borgata the BI is capped at $500 for the 2/5NL game. They take a time rake of $10/hour.

If the game would allow a $1000 BI, it would of course play much bigger, and of course the win rate (measuered in BB) would also be much higher. But, unfortunately, it's not.

The 5/10NL is capped at $2000, but I don't have 20 Buy-ins in my bank roll (coming soon!) so I only occasionally sit in there.

One thing you guys seem to be underestimating is the slow pace of live play. If you're seeing 25 hands/hour -- ok, let's say 30 hands/hour -- you're only going to pick up good cards pretty infrequently. If you're fairly wide in your range, and play 30% of your hands, you're only playing 10 hands/hour, and only one of those hands per hour will be a premium hand (JJ+, AQs+, AKo) and even that range is weighted towards Big Slick/Big Chick.

What games exist online where you've killed them for 45BB/100? Not even the weakest competition allows for that kind of win rate.
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Old 07-28-2008, 04:10 PM   #25
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Re: *LIVEPOKER* your expected bb/h live?

10bb/hr or 11bb/hr is 10/30 or 33/100, i dont know where you're getting 45 from

in any case, the 2/5 games are so soft it's insane. also, start tipping $1. I'm also pretty sure that 33bb/100 (or 16ptbb/100) is doable online in the lower limits.
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