Quote:
Originally Posted by dchan81
I personally believe that you can consistently achieve an hourly winrate at $2/$5 live NL of $30/hr-$50/hr with very solid LAG play and good table selection (even if you do make mistakes now and then). I say this because I have been running over $50/hr as my average $2/$5 NL live winrate over the past 1.5 years (half of the time I play $2/$5 NL and half of the time I play $5/$10 NL).
From my own personal experience (playing live $2/$5 NL and $5/$10 NL over the past 1.5 years), you just need to get involved in a lot of big pots and play a lot of hands IP in raised pots against fishy players. This requires you to play LAG or hyper-LAG preflop in order to generate a large number of profitable situation where you can play smart TAG postflop to rip apart the fish who all think that you are just a hyperaggressive maniac.
My personal LAG strategy involves a lot of PF raising IP (with some very large BB steal raises when I read all the limpers for weakness), a lot of light PF 3betting, a lot of continuation bets, and a lot of semibluffing, and almost ZERO slowplaying. I've had tons of people who will play for 100BB stacks preflop against me with crazy stuff like 88 vs my AA, or AQs vs my AKs, etc. just because they get tired of all my crazy bluffing. These people also know that I can and will put over 200BBs on the flop on a flush draw if I think that I have fold equity as well -- which is precisely the reason why I always get paid off on my 2pair/sets/straights.
I probably play twice as many hands preflop as your typical TAG, so I do end up playing many more pots an hour than most TAGs.
At the same time, however, if you play TAG, then I highly doubt that you can achieve more than probably $25/hr unless you have great table selection. There is only so much money that can be made when you are waiting for typical ABC premium hands.
I hope you are correct as what you describe is exactly the way I play. I have been running at $51/hr for about 400 hours and figured that I was just running incredibly well and that my theoretical could be half or even a third of what I was seeing. I play in a 2/5 game with a max buyin of $1K, or you can match the biggest stack at the table. If nobody has more than 1K then 1K is the max. There are very few good players.
I play mostly LHE, 20/40 and 30/60 but am trying to gradually move to NL because there are so few LHE games. If $40 to $50 per hour is doable, then NL could actually be as profitable as mid-limit LHE.
I am still very skeptical and am waiting for my big losing streak. But much of my feeling is based on the miniscule w/100 rates that I see from online pros who say they are "crushing" a game. If 12bb/100 is crushing a game, and nothing bigger is realistic, then that would translate to only about 3bb/hr live, which makes it hardly worth while for a pro.