$2/5 at MGM on Saturday. I'm playing fairly well, bought in for $700 and have my stack to about $1500.

Poker author Ed Miller sits down and over the course of about an hour, plays fairly tight, making lots of folds. Then we get involved in a hand. Ed has about $1000 behind.

After UTG limps (an awful player), I raise to $25 in MP with KQ. Ed call in the SB and the UTG limper calls, as well.

Flop: ($80)

Q72

Checked to me. I bet $60. Ed calls, UTG folds.

Turn: ($200)

A

Ed looks as though he's considering leading out, but checks. I check.

River: 2

Ed tanks for about a minute before leading out for $80.

Hero???

My thought process is that we're chopping most queens, but I can't imagine that being anywhere but at the bottom of his range.

Vs Ed M this is a super easy fold. His line here on this board from his position is like never a bluff.

I would say his range given all action is pretty narrow. Basically KJs/JTs only.

Incredibly insteresting hand since we have so much insight into villains thougth process. I don't see how he can ever put you on anything but a Q/air or Axs here so his sizing says he must be value betting this. If he was trying to push you off a split he would have to bet bigger, yes? I don't know if he value bets a Q here because there are not enough 2nd best hands that pay off. I think he has AQ, A7s or a flush here.

I also think against Ed this is a pretty easy fold. The best u can hope for is a chop, I don't think he's ever bluffing here

I think its a easy call, he most likely gained equity OTT, was going to bet, but figured you wouldn't fold, he checked, you checked, on the river he knows that you don't have a flush and or scared of the flush. He can rep a wide range on this board. Only an experienced player would call in this spot. Any donk, is scared of the paired board/flush.

Good play by ED.

First glance on the hand is that Ed is never bluffing here, I dont even consider hero calling.

I would assume Ed's calling range preflop given this board is pretty nutted up, This is 77/AQ/J10SPADES alot imo...

What is Ed's image of you? Does he know you know him?

Is this a joke? Easy fold.

He would have to be floating the flop (WITH A PLAYER BEHIND HIM) and then he gets 2 of the best bluff cards. yeah no, fold.

At best you're chopping vs QTs/QJs/KQs/KQo (and maybe QJo/QTo depends on how much mr. miller plays OOP vs a pfr). You're beating.. 88/99/TT (and maybe a JJ that doesn't 3bet pre)

Also, why can't you have AxKs/AxJs/AxTs here?

The fact that what I'm saying is the complete opposite of what "pokahbows" is saying just means I am correct because that guy blows.

+1 especially given he knows other villains a total drooler; no way he is reverse floating you.

W.e

We've met a few times in non-poker situations...but not for a few years, and I didn't even know if he recognized me. We had never played poker together before. For the hour I was there, I was fairly quiet.

And yes, I know this is an easy fold, I just thought it was slightly interesting because it was against Ed!

His range pre-flop is what?

all pairs, AK, AKs, AQs, maybe other suited broadway connectors. That's it, right? Like others have said, I figured, at best, I'm chopping.

If he pulled an oop bluff with air, good on him! I just can't imagine what he's calling the flop with, OOP, that I now beat on the river.

lol ok

@Dominic looked at your line dude. No experienced player is leading with a flush/boat on this river. You raised preflop, bet the flop, checked turn. Now he knows you have a top pair type hand. River is a wonderful card, board pairs, flush draw OTT didn't get there. He has no chance of beating top pair, that's why he leads.

Your line is consistent with the normal low stakes pot control line. Which is why internet players call it a donk line. The reason being is you can get bluffed off top pair on rivers. River play is what separates the good from the norm.

Why did you bet so much on the flop? Please explain.


Why would you think he is bluffing here? What do you think he is calling with on a Q72 flop...?

OP obviously looks very strong here...

Please explain your thought process... What do you think he called the flop with?

I put Ed Miller on exactly AQ.

I would bet the turn and check behind river. Flush, given the board, is not in Miller's range, and betting here may have slight FE, but it should be the same cost as calling river, unless you are completely giving up on the hand.

I agree I think his PF range is very narrow. I think that's why by the river you can deduce he pretty much has JTs/KJs or AQ. Pretty much only 3 hands. He doesn't have a set so the pairs in his range are out. I would even discount AK out of his range.

So ed miller takes the bet/fold line on the river? Lolllllss please dude, he writes books, not a low stakes cpu jockey.

You are a horrible hand reader to say the least.

except for the flush draw this is a dry flop. someone like ed is capable of peeling off on the flop with an underpair to the queen (to see if you bet again). i don't see an ace kicker hand given the A came on the turn. he thinks at a high level and knows you are afraid of the flush and trying to exercise pot control by checking the turn.

his bluffs are going to look a lot like small value bets. you are getting good odds here. i'd pay him off.

LOL, Ed is not turning his PP into bluff in LLSNL at this spot.

Obviously I could be wrong, but clearly, the bet size on river is to entice Qx to call for chop, while still have the room to fold to a raise.

Wow finally someone with some sense(thankyou). Ed could easily have jacks,10,9s and even 8s, he knows he is playing with donks.

Lol. Are you for real? I'm w/ Poke and probably most other people here.

Ed is not doing some fancy leveling game doing some post oak bluff in a LLSNL game. He is betting for VALUE.

Your thoughts maybe valid in a deeper stacked higher limit game, but not at low stakes where the #1 characteristic of "donk" = Calls too much.

And Ed knows this.

I think his range here is mostly hands that beat you. If your turn read accurate combined with his sizing, then this is AQ a lot. I would lead turn here with AQ a lot.

PF his range is likely 22-JJ, AQ, KQs, AJs, KJs, QJs. I think he folds hands like KQo a lot.He folds QJs and KJs sometimes.

Once he c/c flop, we can discount 22 and 77. His range is mostly Qx, sometimes NFD.

Once turn comes he can't have AsXs. But your read suggests the A improved his hand.

Once he block bets river, he has Qx, with x=A most of the time. Even if he does it with KQs, there are 2 KQs combos and 6 AQ combos. And he does this with AQ almost always and witk KQs only once in a while.

Fold.

P.s. against a worse player I would make it $320 some of the time if the player was weak-tight and a bad hand reader. But it's hard for your line to rep much that beats AQ and Ed should know that.

I could be wrong, but maybe he figures TPGK is probably good here and wants to value bet and over-charge Flush draws and PITA Ax hands that might float a weak flop bet.

Personally, I'd probably read too much into it and think the "Ed looks as though he's considering leading out, but checks" is a "strong means weak" reverse tell and c-bet the turn, then shut it down.

Where do you play? I feel like I am losing value by playing anywhere else in the world.

Board is atrocious donks can't call. Flush and boats out there.

Let's break it down, why would he bet 2pair for value here?

Poke is saying AQ right, that hand has showdown value, an experience player is not leading with 2pair. He is going to check hoping for a check through or call a small bet.

Ok let's say he has a flush, he would c/c that as well. So he won't get raised by some weird hand like trip 2s or a strong ace.

So this only leads to a boat/air. The range is very narrow if you actually know how to hand read.