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Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river!

10-04-2010 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoHomeJerome
I was at the table for this hand IIRC. Have to fold here. This particular player would not do that w/ out 77. Played countless hours with him. FWIW I thought I was the only one that noticed his blue eyes.
LOL, you guys need to play more and post less.
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-04-2010 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Folding when best is a catastrophe (reciprocity is lopsided)
CAlling when behind is only a routine and mere loss (reciprocity even)
Even though the money gained and lost is the same each way.
Some of the givens as I see them.
  1. Live players are beatable because they are calling-stations, and can't fold big hands.
  2. Live players are weak passive and don't bluff very often (although they sometimes do).
  3. Being able to fold when behind is essential to producing a + win-rate.
So, I see folding when best to be something I do more often than the table-fish. But I see it as a necessary evil.

But I do it far less often than the table-fish fold with worse than me.

They pay me off 85% of the time, but I only pay them off 25% of the time. (Numbers made up.)

They never fold strong/mediocre hands to me when I'm ahead, but I can fold strong hands when they have monsters, and mediocre hands when they have strong hands.
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-04-2010 , 04:24 PM
Quote:
Have to fold here.
I lol'd.

You do realize that not calling in these spots is one of the costliest errors you can make in poker right? You only think you "have to fold" because villain won the hand - the much more likely scenario was you scoop a huge pot, pat yourself on the back, and never make this thread.

Your brain is wired to make you think "you knew" he had 77 and punish you for calling. Bad experiences stick more than good experiences. In actuality there was absolutely no way to know for sure he had 77 unless he exposed his cards. This is a no-brainer-insta-why-are-we-even-talking-about-this-LDO-call all day every day.

But if you really think it was a bad call, then by all means please fold next time you have *only* the 2nd nuts. Especially if it's against me. I only go all-in with the absolute nuts. I promise.

Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-05-2010 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Folding when best is a catastrophe (reciprocity is lopsided)
Calling when behind is only a routine and mere loss (reciprocity even)
Even though the money gained and lost is the same each way.

I hope you can figure out what that means.
Spoiler:
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-05-2010 , 12:37 PM
I play with derick quite often, he's very good and often plays higher. He obviously called but honestly felt he was paying off the nuts given his short history with this villain and the 'vibe' he was getting. I told him he had to get it in (as did everyone else) as overpairs, straights and smaller sets show up here very often. He should have titled the thread 'I know I should be excited but this just feels like I'm paying this guy off. Even though I want to fold, there is no way I can, right?' (or maybe just posted it in BBV.)
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-05-2010 , 03:02 PM
Ok, I'll take your word for it. But then, please find out if 76o is too good a hand to squeeze with, can you get a range of hands that are appropriate for that purpose?
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-12-2010 , 08:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jolyroger
Ok, I'll take your word for it. But then, please find out if 76o is too good a hand to squeeze with, can you get a range of hands that are appropriate for that purpose?
I'm squeezing mainly because of the situation.
The cards I hold don't really matter if I squeeze and it works — 72o is as good as a 2 and a cut card.

I decided not to squeeze since 76o has some value, having the button has some value, and I'm not sure I have fold equity from the loose limping player out front.
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-12-2010 , 08:52 AM
I'd really love to know villains reasoning for shove on turn. What a fantastic bet.
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote
10-12-2010 , 04:11 PM
Again, this boils back down to heros putting villain on a range. If hero can
demand that villain does not have AK suited, nor AA or KK, then whats the question here?

Just fold. Simple.

But calling the 76o was a stretch, then flop gin with it, then get scared and want to fold to a complete setup cooler. Makes no sense. Mistakes were made, and is up to hero to figure where he made it. Prolly start with pre although i cannot say since it has more to do with postflop ability. Getting scared with it would suggest fold pre. Just like if we flop top SD and have a chance to win by semi bluffing, odds are we wont if we are the type to get afraid when flopping top two.
Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river! Quote

      
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