We all have seen various hands of the sort, and depending on which one gets posted seems to many times stimulate different lines of thought. This hand you saw shows exactly why I cannot check fold this river with top set. I defer to the forum that across the land apparently most players feel that avg villains are not capable of this. I have run into creative/spewy villains enough in deep situations which creates my own feelings. But apparently as a general rule villains are just not doing this enough that it can be standard to check fold. Still seems to be a really bad spot that hero places himself in if this is the plan for the river.

Great thread/hand. Enjoyed thhe thoughts.

One thing that I don't think has been mentioned is why villain would flat the turn with his hand if he was going to play the river this way? I mean, I guess he has SD value but really only aganst the AA-JJ with a part of Hero's range which, after the turn bet, are a very small %. The bigger value of his spot (IMO) is his position and the fact that Hero has less flushes in his range and most likely can be bluffed off a better hand this deep.

I think villain played his hand in the most sub-optimal way possible on both the turn and river (flop is debateable, but I would probably raise 44 there with 6 left to act...maybe that is wrong). But, if he was going to play his hand that passively on turn and river, then I think a flop raise is mandatory or you just give up way too much value versus a good villain like Muffin.

Floating the flop with a hand that is not a set, a FD, or maybe QQ in this particular spot (6 player left, with a whale who does not like to fold and has made large c/r bluffs in the past) is just not good poker imo. If I see you making silly floats in huge bloated pots with zero equity hands and trying to win the pot later, I'm probably check/calling all my flushes against you on the river.

Villain should probably not raise bottom set on the flop with the whale still in the pot. As for raising the turn, do you really expect to get called by worse here? Are you trying to fold out better?

Well I guess I think villain should either raise the turn as a bluff because he has way more flushes in his range than you do (at least I think so). Also, he MAY get a fold from slightly better some % of the time (your hand and middle set) or at least allow him to get you to fold those hands on the river unimproved (I admit, this may be a small %). Finally, if you are two barrelling with the top of your 1 pair range (AA or KK), then he makes you pay max to draw.

I guess more than anything I just don't like villain's full line of call/call/check behind. I think there has to be a better three street combo for bottom set, IP on this board being that deep.

lol

Lol I see. So u don't agree that villain has more flushes in his range and therefore can raise the turn here? Maybe the word "bluff" was wrong in this case...what I meant was that it is palusible that villain's range contains more flushes than Hero's and therefore he can attempt to take control of the hand on the turn. Instead he chose to flat and then when checked to AGAIN, he checked behind as well. Clearly you can't think that is the best line for bottom set here, can you?

by far the best line. seems relatively standard on both parts.

OK, I realize you thought my comments were dumb, but could I ask you to elaborate why not using position and perceived range in this spot is the best line? The way villan played it he was just calling and hoping for the best which I would think in most cases you would agree is not the right way to play.

sometimes theres just no need to be the agressor. calling and hoping for the best is totally fine, not just on rivers, but on earlier streets. for example, if someone raises in EP and i flat AQ, i'll call down two on almost all ace high boards "hoping for the best" because it's usually the correct play. same concept in this spot. our hand (bottom set) is relatively similar in strength to AQ on an ace high board in a HU pot.

if we're making a play on this turn with these stack sizes, i would be polarized and need the nut or 2nd nut blocker (whether or not I have the flush is irrelevant or depends on my reads)

I'm isolating every Axs and a lot of SCs here, but I guess you had no way of knowing that.

Are you Neil?

yeah, did we play at foxwoods?

I think villain's play is standard in this spot. I would play it the same way, and probably fold if hero bet river.

Flop is standard with fishy players behind and with best absolute position, meaning that if the turn is multiway, villain can generally take a free card on a flush turn or vbet a blank if checked to on the turn.

Do you think raising bottom set on the turn is a value bet? Basically you are only getting called by AAd, KKd (should be seriously discounted due to preflop) that is worse, all flushes probably call, and all better sets (of which there are at least as many combinations as AAd/KKd, even before discounting AAd/KKd) will call so it is not a value bet at all since more than 50% of villain's calling range beats you.

And raising bottom set on the turn as a bluff to bluff higher sets and flushes is pretty much spew. The entire range you are trying to bluff against almost never folds the turn so you have to bluff again on the river and trying to double barrel bluff a range of {sets, flushes} is extremely spewy.

On the river considering flop and turn action even though hero checked on river villain doesn't always have the best hand but has it often enough, and his hand can't really value bet (again, count combinations of calling hands) or bluff here (you should expect most sets to c/c very reluctantly in this spot in live poker even though they should c/f, and I don't think a flush folds), so the check behind on the river is probably best.

villians flat on flop is super std

Foxwoods once, mohegan once i do believe.....You did not tell me your online name fwiw, someone else did after you left. Was fun playing with you, will introduce myself next time.

aight cool, lookin forward to it

I just read this thread from start to finish, and thought I'd chime in FWIW...

I'm confused to hear a lot of what you guys are saying because my experience with LIVE poker seems to differ from most of what you guys are saying (with the exception of Ain't No limit) ...

In my experience, live players are IN GENERAL so damn cally that we can't narrow their range to only flushes here, or even MOSTLY flushes. Seems to me we are describing this villain as a DECENT COMPETENT LIVE PLAYER... So in my experience, this type of player can call the flop here with a wide variety of hands ESPECIALLY THIS DEEP. Why did nobody in this thread mention 2 pair?

Here is what I would consider this player's range after he calls Flop and turn:

smaller sets, 2 pair, JJ-QQ with a diamond (I know you guys will argue with this one, and I agree we might have to discount this a bit but its definately in a lot of live player's range), and FLUSHES.

Now when the river bricks, and he has the range I have assigned him, without pulling out pokerstove, I'm going to instinctively say we're slightly ahead of his range. Hell, let's call it 50-50.

We now have 3 options really


Option A - BET/FOLD RIVER
1) Its possible he calls us with worst
2) He may fold worst
3) He may shove and make us fold
4) he may call and beat us

Option B - C/FOLD RIVER
1) Villain bluffs we lose
2) Villain checks, we win and got no value
3) Villain bets better hand we fold and lose never knowing what just hit us

Option C - C/CALL RIVER

We just can't do this and allow him to TAKE CONTROL and determine bet size. How do we know if shove means bluff or value ????


Basically, option B sucks most of the time, C is just terrible as we open the door for him to turn his hand into a bluff, and option A is good at least half the time....




By the way, I c/raise the flop. I'm OOP with the nuts with 7 players left to act. Theres almost no way this wet flop gets checked around, so I'm going for a nice big juicy c/raise. I'm gonna catch someone with a lower set, or 2 pair, or a big draw.... Some cally live player may even call or WORST get it in with an overpair! (believe me I've seen it many times) ...


Anyways, thats my 2 cents.... Good thread...

BTW, just because this villain claimed he wouldn't have called a bet with 444 on the river, I don't believe this to be true most of the time...

IMO, live players will call a river bet there with bottom set a GOOD portion of the time....

They just somehow talk themselves into it...

I haven't played much with villain, but he seems to be a good player - Not good among the pool of live professionals, actually good at playing poker and good at hand reading. If we need to call him an online player to assume he isn't doing terrible things on all streets, then let's just go ahead and say he is an online player.

Nobody mentioned two pair because the only two pair he could conceivably have is 79s and we have two nines. If you think villain might show up with 94 or 74 here than we clearly have differing opinions on what makes someone a 'good' player.

Ok you have 2 9s.... 9-7s still exists, and as deep as you are with this guy, I'm not sure how loose he is, but as deep as you guys are, a tonne of good players could call here with 7-4s ....

The point I was trying to make was that I believe you guys had his range TOO flush heavy... He definately has a lot of flushes, but I just see a tonne of other stuff as well...

Villain isn't on the button. He is directly to my left. One or more of the three people behind him will usually call, so he isn't likely to have position post flop. Flatting low suited two gappers in a spot like this is just not going to be profitable imo. Yeah, he is deep and has position on me and the fish, but 74s just does not play well here. There are just too few boards where he can happily play a big pot.

Muffin Man I agree with that 100% and would never call with 7-4s there.

But, a lot of other people do, especially when deep.

If we flip this hand around, shouldn't 44 have bet the river as a bluff? Isn't MuffinMan is check/folding his entire range? I mean, v's range has MM's range beat, but v has the worst possible hand in his range. MM is not checking a nut flush. If MM has the nut flush blocker we are value towning him. It's also unlikely that v is drawing for the non-nut flush. AXsuited is a huge part of v's range imho.

I dont really care for it....he should be folding once he c/cs but sometimes people just c/c flushes....why cant villan have non nut flushes? this isnt plo