Folding set OTT - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Hero- 200 young guy. Been at the table for less than 30 minutes. UTG

V- Old man coffee. Has 175. OTB

I open UTG to 10 which is a pretty small raise from what I have seen. 3 callers V calls OTB

Flop is a lovely 893rb I lead for 20 only V calls OTB.

I have played w V many times and he is fairly tight. I think that he would re raise prolly JJ plus pre and if not pre he would be trying to get it in OTT.

Turn is 10 of c completing the rainbow board. I lead for 45 and V automatically ships for 125 more.

The way he quickly shipped it over my raise I figure he has a made hand, and if he's raising an overpaid now why wouldn't he pre or OTT?

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03-14-2015 , 12:32 AM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,644

Which set do we have? Lead bigger OTF for pure value. We want to play for stacks here, and betting at least $30 will help us do that. Someone is calling when you have that many flatters pre.

AP, bet more OTT for the same reason, setting up a river shove.

AP, now which set we have matters much more. Lots of OMC types will slow play a set OTF, but raise OTT, esp when the board is getting wet. Of course, straights are in his range too. I could find a fold here with 33, but not 99. 88 is iffy.

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03-14-2015 , 12:48 AM

OKC_grinder

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 392

Ahhh sorry. Hero flops the nuts.

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03-14-2015 , 12:51 AM

powrhau5

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 390

Yeah can't fold now

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03-14-2015 , 04:02 AM

matzah_ball

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 2,747

lower sets, some two pair, JJ could all be here. Calling easily

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03-14-2015 , 05:19 AM

wewa925

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,039

Easiest snap ever. Hard to see him call flop with QJ. If he has TT, that's a terrible cooler.

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03-14-2015 , 06:09 AM

Andnoel

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 587

Call me a nit but I m going to fold here.

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03-14-2015 , 06:12 AM

Buster65

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,243

O
M
C.

You're beat, fold.

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03-14-2015 , 08:57 AM

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

Easy call. 2.5-to-1 odds with plenty of two pair and lower sets shipping. Even if you give villain all 20 combos of straights (all QJ and 76s) vs. 8 two pair/set it's still +$53 EV to call. You still have 10 outs if villain has a straight.

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03-14-2015 , 09:02 AM

#10

br3nt00

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,664

Quote:

Originally Posted by wewa925

Easiest snap ever. Hard to see him call flop with QJ. If he has TT, that's a terrible cooler.

This

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03-14-2015 , 09:47 AM

#11

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,644

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andnoel

Call me a nit but I m going to fold here.

You're a nit. Against a range of 76s, all the other sets, 89s, and one combo each of QJs and JJ (heavily discounted because OMC doesn't call the flop much with a gutshot, or raise turn much with an overpair +OESD) we have 54.3% equity.

Even if we add in the offsuit 67 combos (that an OMC rarely calls pre with) we have 40.6%. As our call only represents a third of the pot, this is definitely a call. Even if we take out the 89 combos and the JJ combo so that we're against sets and straights only, we still have 37.65%.

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03-14-2015 , 10:27 AM

#12

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

I forgot to add TT to my EV calculation. Hero is +$40 with 3 TT combos.

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03-14-2015 , 10:37 AM

#13

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,644

And that's giving him all the QJ combos, which is patently ridiculous. OMC isn't calling 100% of his gutshot combos.

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03-14-2015 , 10:43 AM

#14

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

Yeah. And calling is still plus EV with all 76 combos too. Really easy call.

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03-14-2015 , 11:02 AM

#15

OSUTexan

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,210

Never folding here...if he has QJ or 67, you still are 4 to 1 against a straight and nearly have odds to call. If he has TT then that sucks but a cooler...too many combos you're ahead of though.

Easy call.

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03-14-2015 , 01:02 PM

#16

OKC_grinder

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 392

TT wasn't in my consideration honestly. Right before I went last night I watch a CLP poker w David Tuchman talking about live tendencies blah blah blah. Just the way that V snap shipped over my lead OTT make me think that turn improved his hand. Had he had an overpair/2pair I think V would have raised me pre or OTF. Folded face up I guess just to show how unlucky I was. V didn't show but saw an over on his bottom card as he mucked. Later one in the night maybe 3 hours later V won a pot w KK vs AA. I knew this was a good time to get an honest answer from V about our hand since he was so jubilant about his suck out. He told me that he had me beat

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03-14-2015 , 01:27 PM

#17

progress

adept

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,108

Folding is insane

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03-14-2015 , 02:17 PM

#18

ShermanTank

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 401

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03-14-2015 , 02:52 PM

#19

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

Folding is very bad. Folding face up is awful.

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03-14-2015 , 03:15 PM

#20

AsianNit

banned

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 9,881

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

AP, now which set we have matters much more. Lots of OMC types will slow play a set OTF, but raise OTT, esp when the board is getting wet. Of course, straights are in his range too. I could find a fold here with 33, but not 99. 88 is iffy.

Some OMC types will slowplay a set OTF but fail to pull the trigger on a turn raise because they are afraid of a straight.

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03-14-2015 , 03:27 PM

#21

OKC_grinder

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 392

There was no one at the table that would take advantage of the info. V was a nicer old man, & I figured he would have shown either way if I showd him

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03-14-2015 , 03:49 PM

#22

Willyoman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,468

You're getting > 3:1. 250 in the pot, 80 to call.

I don't see how this is anything but a snap call.

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03-14-2015 , 03:59 PM

#23

Kyuubimon

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 685

I couldn't find a fold here either. Stacks aren't all that deep. If OMC stacks Hero, reload.

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03-14-2015 , 04:08 PM

#24

sierradave

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 920

I'm only worried about 67 here. And V can easily have smaller sets, two pair, or badly-played overpair. Instacall.

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03-14-2015 , 04:35 PM

#25

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

He most likely wasn't bluffing. But if you think he was the thing to do is to call. No one reading your post over the internet knows for sure. Second guessing yourself is -EV. Showing your hand is very -EV.

It would be an odd way to play J9 and it makes sense for him to play 67 this way.

I don't know why you bet half-pot on the flop with the nuts, and then made a larger bet on the turn when you're behind lots of hands.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willyoman

You're getting > 3:1. 250 in the pot, 80 to call.

Not according to the OP.

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