If you had c/r'd flop as a bluff, it would have been bad because you would have been repping so little. It matters less than you think that you have been card dead and "playing tight".

They way you got there though, it seems like a pretty trivial fold. Sometimes people 2 out you on the river. And nobody decent is 3bet shipping that river as a bluff against an unknown who took your line.

Don't really see why people think villain can't have TT in this spot, c-bet flop, check back turn when hitting gin card = "I give up with my random two overcards" and then bet/jam river...I would discount 67s and QJ because if opponent is competent he/she is more likely to barrel turn then check it back, but with no knowledge of opponent it's certainly possible.

Against random opponent I think I'd fold here...but I would also bet/call river rather than c/r because opponent's range after checking back turn is imo 1 pair hands, some airballs, or nutted type hands (22,33,1010, 99?).

The turn is a very key street. The majority of players are not going to balance their checking back range between hands that are giving up or pot controlling. More specifically, most hands are going to attempt to 3bArrel that are air- and not look to bluff/ bluff 3bet ship the river when possibly getting c/r by a capped value range-merged with some hands expecting him to b/f better hands a lot.

He can't even be sure you are capable of piecing that together that you have to be c/ r a lot of rivers once he checks back the turn.

It's already been beaten to death- but this is a very sophisticated bluff line we are expecting someone to do with most likely a very small portion of his range.

He's already showed the propensity to 3barrel. I'd guess he'd balance that by not pot controlling a good chunk of his value range.

I feel like the later streets in a hand- the wider the grey area gets that we must evaluate and make decisions on. When both players are dealing with so much grey area I would tend to lean towards expecting someone to react naturally in a straightforward way.

I've been taking the b/c/b line alot more as a bluff lately - but wouldn't expect someone to take the b/c/b/3bet ship line as one.

After a long- probably disconnected- analysis, I conclude he has 99 or weirdly played 67/qj. Just because we expect someone to barrel those doesn't mean that in- game they may do something odd when they are trapped in the abyss of grey matter on the turn and rivers with an unknown.

Interesting thread- im doing this on my phone so it is nearly impossible to edit. My apologies.

I'm sorry guy's, I don't know what all the discussion is about here. I call here and if he shows up with QJ or 67 I snap re buyin for this guys stack. If he's got 99 or 1010 then you just got coolered but I'm not folding in game. But I'm a station so what do I know.

Really? There are a heck of a lot of overcards that will come. The only problem for him is that there are three other people--he still might be cbetting though.

Someone mentioned earlier that if the villain bet because this was a good board to barrel, he would be continuing on the turn with the 9 overcard. He probably would, but I could see someone getting scared or perhaps checking back a gut shot after the op called the cbet with two players left to act.

I think the bold part is a very important point.

too much overthinking itt

[ ] understands bluffcatchers...

oh, and yeah, i think that third set is a bluff catcher against a "competent-ish" reg at these stake, given the river action.

There is some really horrible analysis on this thread, much worse than in normal 5/10. I guess 25/50 brings out all the posters that want to be cool by trying to analyze the hand.

Is your opponent capable of bluffing here? How does he view you?

Obv. top of your range is a complete bluff-catcher here as villain is v-betting pretty much top set+.

Pre: Assuming that villain assumes that the hero can not have 99 or TT given that they are unknown is silly. Many players call here pre with those combos especially depending on UTG. It's pretty safe to assume though that the villain isolation range is wiiide.
Flop: Villain will probably c-bet a very high number here.
Turn: Given how strong your range is on this particular turn, I don't think it's impossible for villain not to bet a huge amount of draws, completely missed hands and overpairs here. Even if he bets like 50 % of his draws, it still leaves a ton of combos of 67 and QJ which amount also depend on his isolation range pre. Given that he is unknown, assuming that he bets all his draws on the turn is bad. Also given the fact that hero can easily have a ton of sets here, I don't think not barreling this turn with a wide range is uncommon.
River: Villain can easily bluff and v-bet initially with checked overpairs and then turn them into a bluff depending on how he views you.

So yeah, he gets to the river in a situation where he can 3-bet your raise on the river with a wide range. Does he 3-bet here with a wide range is the only question which boils down to how how he views you and how competent he is. Given the information, I would fold and hate life (+ probably lead river next time vs this villain) :P

He still might raise the lead really big but I think you're fine against that range. Also he still might shove but I found that a lot less likely and if he does, good for him.

Let me clear up a couple things.

First, fish were 25/5 type. Loose preflop, passive w/o nuts postflop in >20bb pots, though happy to make 1/3rd pot donkbets and flop min c/r and other typical fish moves when the pot was small.

Villain: 'Unknown' doesnt mean he just sat down in the table. We had been playing for several hours now. I just meant that hes a strong fairly aggressive reg typical of this limit from whom I hadnt picked up any definite leaks or rememberable tendencies. He knows what good spots for bluff raising look like e.g. calls down a lag's float flop-raise turn-shove river on 46Jss74 HU mp vs. btn and is good with tptk. That said is he capable of a bluff this big? Wouldnt put it past him since the correct frequency for it may be around or less than once every several hours.

What does he perceive me as. A reg for sure. Probably a bit scared money(which I am, taking a shot) but it could be in my head. Its tough to go thru all my hands right here so let me just speculate on what I would perceive my range if I had been him:

Preflop my call = broadways, medium SCs, small PPs. Not sure about 99+, guys need input on this one
Postflop = PPs, sets, 8x, the odd Ace high.
Postturn = PPs, sets, 8x, 8Ts, the odd Ace high.
Postriver c/r = Sets, 89s, 8Ts and some of the other stuff turned into a bluff.

I think a reg at this level is usually giving me credit for balancing here, but even if he doesnt, am I (given my image) so often a bad enough player to him that Im c/r only sets and 2pair and then unable to fold most of them?

Thanks for advice

Ur smart. But forget 2 things.
1) He still has a bluff range that cant beat what I turned into bluff
2) What if he can take 9x and try to fold out 22/8T (which I am value raising obv. These are the same strength as 88) and make a move he sees as +ev against my whole range not just my bluffs. Or is this just too paranoid?

then you should be calling.

i excluded #1 because it's hard for me to come up with an air range for him, but i guess we can't rule it out. who knows, people don't always play exactly as we expect. and if we're saying he can have QJ (even 10% of the time) then we have to include that he could get to the river with something like KQ.

and on #2 that's something that's very player dependent; if you think he's capable of this (even like 1 in 10 times), again it's a call.

and like i said in some earlier posts, he only needs around ~2 worse value or bluff combos to make this a call. so i think ive changed my mind about this hand and i think it's a now a call. if we knew him really really well and had more info than maybe we could get away but the value range is just too slim here and there are too many unknown factors (how often he gets to the river with air, if he's ever capable of making a [seemingly suicidal] shove over our c/r on the river with worse).

Yeah, now sounds more like a call. You can obv. balance your c/r/c range by calling the top range off even though 22=88 here. 88 is pretty much the top of your range, call.

results ?

I've never played this high, and I'm not even a winning 10/20 player, so please don't take my advice too seriously.

I think your line is fine. I think the river is a fold and it isn't close. I think it's a fold even against a super sicko.

I think villain would play QJo exactly like this. That's already 16 combos, which is pretty wide. He also probably also plays [76s TT 99] this way a reasonable fraction of the time, which is another 10 combos, slightly discounted. I really hope no one in this thread thinks villain is repping a narrow range.

I agree that the river timing removes a lot of QJ from villain's range, but I sure as hell would be hollywooding with the nuts with tens of thousands of dollars at stake, and I imagine there are many other players who feel the same way.

He'd have to be bluffing a LOT here in order for this to be a call. And no one ever bluffs in this spot. Sure, your range is capped at TT, but does he give you, a female unknown, credit for being able to lay down a set? No, he doesn't. No one ever folds sets. And girls especially are incapable of folding sets, because girls suck at poker. Villain should not think he has any fold equity here.

If he's bluffing, he's risking $11250 to win a mere $6650, so you must fold 63% of the time for his bluff to be profitable. Put yourself in his shoes. Would you make that kind of a move against a girl who just dropped a $4000 raise on you, and expect it to work? Is there ANYONE in this thread who would actually bluff in villain's spot? I seriously doubt it. Try to push a girl off her set on the river? Madness. Doesn't happen.

Yeah, your line looks a bit bluffy as well, and that should make a bluff seem slightly more attractive to villain, but still, is there anyone here who would bluff in villain's position? If so, what is your bluffing range? Because my brain immediately classifies such a bluff as "suicidal," and my bluffing range in this spot is nil.

The only reason anyone is even remotely entertaining a call here is because Sets Are Very Good Hands And You Shouldn't Fold Them. But that attitude is inappropriate here. Your set is a bluff catcher. No one ever bluffs here. So fold.

this goes for me too

so you're giving him 16 combos of qj- you think he cbets the flop with virtual air into 3 other players and then checks the turn when he hits one of the best cards to continue barreling on 100% of the time? i have to disagree with you there.

76s, tt, 99 account for 7 combos. im only giving him 1 combo between 76s and tt because i think it would be incredibly weird for him to check turn with those hands but i wont eliminate it entirely. i think he has all 3 combos of 99 so that's 4 combos total for these hands.

let's even give him 8 combos of qj, which i think is ridiculously generous. that's 12 value combos. i think this counts as a pretty thin value range, don't you?

i mean point taken with your first two paragraphs but i think it's better to think in probabilities, not absolutes. we're getting 18:8.5 on the river which means he needs to have a worse hand than us 32% of the time. so if we're giving him 12 value combos (which i still think is absurd) that means he needs to have 4 combos of worse hands on the river. that's not a whole lot.

so i don't know. i think just the fact that we're working with imperfect information and not super familiar with this guy's game means we have to call.

anyway, i think ive said all i can on this hand so ill leave the rest of the discussion to others (if there is any). i do tend to overanalyze but i hope some of it was helpful. gl

edit: also just noticed a small mistake- boredatheist was right on the combos of tt,99,67s im tired and i miscounted. so yeah maybe villain needs another combo of bluffs

I'm curioous as well.

At first i would have been super balanced and maybe oriented towards a call (thinking player, can have the nuts while we can't so can 3bet bluff for "big" moniez - 160BB to call and see -) but the more i read this hand the more i think it's a fold because of the 4way effect : since it's a 4way the weak valueish check/call range of Heroine otf folds a lot more (that it would be HU) so when we get to the river she has a lot less hands that she can turn into a bluff, and in the same time Villain will probably (not that sure) barrel way less often hands like QJ on the turn

So yeah 1) hands that Heroine can turn into a bluff with a river c/r can be discounted
2) Villain might cbet 67 (with backdoor flushs and str8) even 4way in order to barrel turns like QKA or flush draws/str8 draws cards he would hit (only the 5 and 9 to have an open ender) while deciding to check his gutshots, the same for QJ so a check on his part is not contradictory with the fact he can easily have QJ/67 river, i think it's even more likely to be in hsi river range than when he barrels the T ott


But yeah im just a random donk so my view isn't really worth a lot



EDIT : disagree with the one people (haven't read the whole thread) saying that Vilain can check TT on the turn, it's not like when you're Vilain playing the hand you will think "Niark niark niark i check the T so river i can't have TTT and i will obviously run into a guy checkraise/calling the river with an under set" even a really good player will think IMO "we are deep, i have top set i want to get value now"

Trying to get unknowns to fold sets on boards like this is complete spew and a quick ticket to bustoland. This is not at all how villain is described.

Op, you should post results, it adds to everyone's sample.

bump for results?

also please post a picture of yourself so we can really put ourselves in villain's shoes. if you're smoking hot, he might have shoved just to hit on you. stuff like that. it'll help with the analysis. can you describe what you were wearing at the time?

Super creepy, and I think this is online hand? I'd fold, taking a shot in a game and then making a marginal at best call doesn't seem like good poker. A lot of times I will check back turns that give my hand a chance to improve, I hate having to fold when I am drawing to the nuts!

lead / call river

as played cry and fold while banging your head on the table for c/ring the river OOP 600 bbs deep with the 6th nuts range capped at 4th nuts vs a solid opponent.

And I don't want to hear "he can't have 67 / QJ b/c he bet into 4 people because we don't knwo that..." that being said it's probably true. But regardless the fact of the matter is all his value hands beat us here and bluffing here would be pretty sick. We'd have to give villian a TON of credit here to c/r/call this river imo and long term that HAS to be a losing play long term.