you can never have 1010 and probably never 99 given preflop, but you can realistically and do have a set here smaller than that; 108s is also possible and 98s. It's 8k more which is alot, but can he really hope you will fold the river with a strong hand especially when he is unknown and you are unknown to him?

I think he's got 99 here alot of the time.

Didnt you say before that his check calling range is sets and overpairs before? (which I def disagree). I also agree that craising with this kind of stack sizes is prob the best (13k is not that deep in live 25/50 game). You get curious call downs from overpairs + some spaz on turn with possible combo draws and obv set over sets etc.

Let me just say that I would be very surprised if villains "value range" includes 99 here. I think he flats the c/r with that hand a lot (same for even TT sometimes). I really think his range is {straights or bluffs}. I've played a lot of 5/10 now and a decent amount of 10/20 (but not higher, unless you count straddling) and I would say that its probably more like 95%+ of the players even at this level are NOT capable of bluffing in this spot.

However, this is a really sick hand. Actually, one of the best posts in a while IMO since it is a spot where it is nearly impossible for hero in the hand to have the nuts (essentially 67, J7, QJ). Now... if villain is bluffing, I think he could very likely have QQ/JJ that he turned into a bluff. That makes sense, to me. I guess c-betting with an OP on flop, then checking back for pot control, betting river for value, getting raised... then its pretty obv raise or fold (and I guess he's like, you can't have QJ, I can, I shove).


Pretty sick. I probably fold pretty quickly because like I said, the players who are bluffing here are just so rare.

When I make a post about folding a set on the river, the thread gets insta-locked. This is blatant sexism!

i think his most likely hand is 99. he could be playing 67/QJ this way but it would be very unusual for him to bet flop AND THEN check turn. you'd expect him to either shutdown on the flop or if he bet, to fire multiple barrels as he's very unlikely to fold out 3 players with a single cbet.

our range looks like sets. maybe we play jj/qq like this rarely but its pretty clear we have ~0 bluffs in our range (MAYBE like a4/a5 with bdfd?). he shouldn't think we're bluffing like ever so i dont think we need to factor in the chance that he's rebluffing.

so there are 3 combos of 99. there are a lot of combos of 67s/QJ (20 total) but given the action i think we can discount these heavily. how much we do so is player/read dependent but i would think he plays these hands this way ~10% of the time (or less) so that's 2 combos and even then i think thats generous. so let's go with 5 value combos.

now how much air does he have in his range? is he cbetting this flop 4ways with his air ever? also, what's his 3betting range? is it mostly high cards? is it polarized? does it have stuff like 45 in it?

you have to call ~8500 to win 20k. so you're getting about 2.5:1 or need to be right about 29% of the time to breakeven (someone could double check my math). so that means we need to find around 2 bluff combos/worse value combos to call. and that really just comes down to how well you know this player.

so its pretty close but i think im folding. given the (obvious) strength of our range and the fact that i think his turn check indicates sd value. betting the flop with air, checking the turn with air, and then betting the river with air AND shipping over our (extremely strong) river c/r, idk. seems almost impossible. as does something like 33. but like i said he only needs ~2 combos so just depends on your reads at this point.

also, to everyone saying 99 isn't in his value range... come on, really? flatting our cr would be EXTREMELY nitty on his part. he loses to 3 combos of tt and beats everything else as we never really have 67s/QJ.

not a 3bet pot.

***. ok well ignore that part of my post and obv his pf range is wider. rest of my post still applies though.

i dunno what the 3 *** are, hope thats not an insult at me.

anyway, I see that many people think that his value range is a bit wider here. however, I just don't feel that way. to me it seems like the value range is narrower. and this is based on playing 5/10 and 10/20 games. at 25/50, I don't know... I guess it could be a bit different.


Its funny, the more I think about it, the more I realize how sick a spot that is to 3bet bluff the river. wow. like, almost a eureka moment..

Like what? Small pp, tp, random overcards? Is that profitable and would a good villain include it anyway?

Hero's continuing range is narrow by default. If you c/r sets then the c/c range is super narrow and at the bottom. Keep it as wide/strong as possible. Good villains aren't putting in 250+ bb with overpairs on this board against a perceived tight player in a multi way pot.

^^^ but a lot of really good players are also not pot controlling the turn with their over pairs...

I disagree in this spot. I think hero played it perfectly and should now fold. I don't think c/r turn with bluffs is a good idea since villain's range should be very strong ott.
Edit: if you think villain is betting overpairs ott most of the time then that would make c/r flop even less attractive.

oh, I agree with the fold on the river. i'm just interested in whether you think 99 is in villains range here?

So what... villain could easily be bet/folding big over pairs. Not like its out of the realm of possibilities. Stranger things happen in NL

results: hero calls and villain confidently tables... 66! He thought he had 9's!!!!!!

but seriously what else could he have here unless he misread his hand its 99 for sure

no it was a 3 letter abbreviation of the f word which apparently gets censored.

i mean yes it's an incredible spot to 3bet bluff the river... if the person is good enough to fold. i dont think most people are, and many good players may even call if they think there's even like a 2% chance we're bluffing.

Im not sure why no one thinks I can be bluffing, it seems a pretty obvi spot to turn alot of flopped pairs that arent 2p+ otr into a bluff

why would he 3b bluff then, how can he have air

He doesn't need air to 3bet bluff. He can value bet the river with all sorts of stuff and decide to jam over a 3 bet if he thinks we fold our whole range. Given stacks, he never ever has TT, and he's not always shoving the river with 99 I think. He should not ever be betting the flop with 67 here to give up on this turn imo. He probably should barrel turn with QJ but checking turn with QJ seems reasonable. If I had QQ/JJ/Tx in villain's shoes otr I would rather shove than call I think. That being said, it's probably a fold if you don't have a good grasp of how good villain is.

Given that villains are unknown to each other we can't assume hero will "fold entire range". You seriously would 3b shove QQ here when hero is semi polarized vs QQ?

Heroes range for the river c/r:
On one end of spectrum: A2, A3, 34, 78, A8s
On other end of spectrum: 32, 33, 22, 88, 89, 810

So if villain has a normal hand in this situation, JJ+, A9s at first it seemed to me a call is in order -- but you believe that we could conceivably fold our entire range here.

I'm going to say villains value range for a 3b is strictly 99 an 1010 (less often); however, if we do include that he can turn his entire range, which was a value range on the first river bet, into a 3b bluff, then i can see a call.

This is such an advanced move though.. yea were are at 25/50 but would you ever run this line with QQ on a random player? I don't see it happening idk..


EDIT: looking at the flop action more closely, I feel that we can discount the bad end of the spectrum of heroes range except A8 and 78, given she had 2 more players left to act after she called. Meaning there are now less hands villain folds out when he 3b "bluffs" the river. Making it less likely IMO

well if we are villain playing this hand against op and think he's capable of ever folding a set getting 2.5:1 when we rep about 5 value combos then it's clearly better to bet/shove with jj, qq than it is to call or fold. but yeah this is really advanced and im not sure anyone really does this in practice.

and if he's shoving over our cr, it wouldn't be to fold out stuff like 78 that we could be turning into bluffs by c/ring; anything he's bet/ch/betting with for value would be ahead of 78 already. so the argument "he might think we're turning weak one pair hands into bluffs with our c/r so HE could be turning the bottom of HIS value range into a bluff" doesn't really hold imo. so IF he's shoving with a worse made hand turned into a bluff on the river it would be ONLY because he expects us to be folding 8T+ enough to be profitable.

and i guess this hand comes down to: are we exploitable by folding 88 here? yes. are we playing someone good enough to exploit it? if so, we need to be calling.

He must shove river w/ 99. If he does not this whole thread is moot and you should fold.

+1

i don't think you understand.

what am i missing? if hes not shoving with 99 doesn't it become a really easy call?