$600 eff. I can haz 33 in CO. My image = TAG. HJ raises to $20. Only I call. V is a young, competent TAG who widens range substantially in LP. He also c-bets a high % of the time.

HU to the Flop: 4h5c6h Pot ~ $50
HJ c-bets $30...................

I raise to $120. I haven't raised anyone's c-bet since I sat down at this table which is 3-4 hours.

Good, bad? Why?

I think you could've raised less to get the info you wanted on this flop. I like a raise of 90-100. If he calls ur behind and have outs...most likely will check turn to you as well so will get to see turn and river relatively cheaply.

I first thought of making it a $100 actually but then decided $20 extra was worth the extra Fold Equity. Anyone else?

I prefer to call and reevaluate the turn. We often have the best hand here so a bluff isn't totally mandatory. Also raising risks letting him 3bet, which sucks.

I think it's better to call and eval turn. If you don't hit your draw there are still scare cards to bluff.

I think your play is fine. I think your uncharacteristically large raise size may make him think you're on a draw though, $90 may actually give you MORE fold equity.

If you don't expect to get paid his entire stack with 44 vs. an overpair here, then just play 33 like 44 every once in awhile (like you said, 3-4 hours) and there's no difference

+1

Calling here and raising almost every turn card.

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I like the raise. Aesah is right that a $90 raise is more dangerous in the villain's eyes than the larger raise. You probably have little FE because it looks like a semi-bluff. Bet the turn on any heart, 2 or 7.

+1. $90-$100 flop raise > $120 flop raise.

minute detail - $90 (or any bet that includes a 9) is apt to get looked up considerably more often than betting $100, $105 etc..... think why retail stores sell stuff for $9x all the time

meh.

In a store you're buying an item. Money out; item in.
In a poker game if you put money in the pot you think you have a reasonable chance of getting that money back, and some. Money out; moar money in.

Different sub-conscious logics

I think raise is fine. Might have made it less. 100 or 105. Just curious, what's your plan on the turn if he checks and
1. You make the straight
2. You miss the straight and some over card blanks off

I think subsequent street plans are as important when semi bluffing as the reraise on the flop. Especially when you are this deep

Fold preflop unless you see two others grabbing chips to call as well.

Raising flop is "meh" as it will never "hardly" fold out better.

I would flat flop and expect V to never barrel air on turn unless a paint/ace hits the turn.

I dont really understand the discussion of FE since I honestly doubt the villain folds 88 99 and better. Maybe he folds Ace/pair on board some, but thats a teenie part of his range. Lets look into the future. V calls with TT. Turn brick. V checks. Now what? If we bet, I still say the villain calls often since the draw missed. If we check, we just signed a contract to lose the pot 80%+ the time on river. Rarely do players go ahead and give credit to sets etc, when draws miss. I think we get true credit for exactly what we have--a draw.

I do agree with ANL that we don't have a lot of FE against an overpair on this wet (but not very scary, yet) board. Villain is often 3betting with a big enough overpair too. A good card on the turn (a big heart) could give us FE though.

So I stick with flat.

+1 for the raise. if his opening range is wide >30%, you're a favorite on this flop.

Of course if he calls, you're probably behind with plenty of outs as well as favorable bluffing cards.

Interested in the read on V's range in this spot given that his rage widens in LP.

Generally on wet board, im often unsure if V has a made hand that he is trying to protect, or if V is semi bluffing with a draw.

Hope this question is not a derail but relevant to the discussion: how do you figure out whether to barrel on a dangerous card, or if that card actually hits V's draw?

Villain should be cbetting this board often, and if you think he's going to call a raise AND a turn and river barrel "80% of the time" why would you advocate folding 33 preflop

Additional note. If you think the villain is spewy enough to blow a second barrel with air then raising flop normal sizing might be called for, but as I said earlier, i dont expect that since he should never expect a turn fold from us.

He may not be able to help himself but to turn barrel if a paint hits the turn, but that gives us options as well if he happens to be a top player (in skill). Topic for another day.

If he's on a wide range pre I would consider 3betting depending on players to act behind(if there are fish or squeezers) and also depending on how much of a postflop edge you think you have against this player.

Raising flop is the easy part(should be $90 instead of $120 btw). The hard part is knowing exactly what to do if called. Double barrel any non board pairing turn? Only double barrel a heart or an 8? What about other scare cards like offsuit A or K?

I disagree with this. Villain is described as a competent TAG. Therefore, he will understand that we are repping a wide range of 2pair+ when we raise this flop (65s/64s/54s 2pairs, 87s straight, 66/55/44 sets). A competent TAG will hate life if he has 99+ here, and we do have some FOLD EQUITY.

If Villain were described as a bad recreational player, then I would agree with you, but I think that we have plenty of FOLD EQUITY here against overpairs against a competent TAG Villain...especially since Olaff described himself as having a clean TAG image too.

Even if the competent TAG calls the flop raise, we definitely will get some folds if we double barrel turn.

With respect to folding preflop, ANL, you have to be insane. This is the perfect spot for us to be flatting 33 preflop. I can't believe that you seriously think that we should folding pre. Aesah put it really well when he said that you can't have it both ways. If you think that competent TAG won't fold an overpair very often to flop raise + turn double barrel in a situation like this, then you should always be calling pocket 33 preflop because your implied odds are so ridiculously high.

ANL,

I mean you no disrespect, but I wish you wouldn't post these kinds of levels. It is hard to take your posts seriously when you say stuff like "fold pocket 33 pre $600 effective in CO versus a competent TAG's $20 HJ raise unless you see two others grabbing chips to call." I imagine that you would fist pump snap call with pocket 33 in OP's spot if you were actually sitting in a live 2/5 NL game yourself. So, I don't understand why you would fist pump snap call pocket 33 preflop if you were playing in a live 2/5 NL game, but then you post this kind of super-nitty -EV nonsense on 2plus2?

To be honest. I'm not sure I'm afan of this play. Seems like you can call flop and evaluate as well. Puts you awkward turn spots out of position too sizing wise. I think you can have just as much fold equity and rep more things as well by floating flop and representing later than bluffing with possibly the best hand and a subpar draw inflating the pot. Villains opening range is wide so he can also have connected with this board with straights and pair +draw stuff. Like check/raising and he ships flop, or floats and we double barrel turn, now he sticks it in. I think most tags on this description vs a tight player (you) will not be double barrelling the turn without a solid hand. It's not like if the draw comes in it's not visable additionally. Bad spot to bloat pot out of position. Limits options/maneuverability on later streets too.

Pre could be a fold if there aren't any fish to act behind and there's a known squeezer on BTN or BB and if hero plays too fit or fold on flops he should be attacking like this one and 3betting isn't profitable because V doesn't fold to many 3bets and doesn't fold postflop often enough. But yeah 90-95% of the time it'll be profitable to flat.

Usually I agree with your posts but I would disagree about V having a tight barreling range on the turn. If hero just flats V should interpret that as a medium strength hand most of the time on this board, like 77-TT, that will have a hard time calling down on a lot of runouts and should be double barreling any turn that isn't an offsuit 3/7/8/9 with the intention of tripling any river that is a heart/J/Q/K/A. It's also hard for hero to be on the flush draw when he flats because this is the perfect board to semi bluff so hearts help V's range more than they do hero's.

This is probably a better line especially if you expect villain to barrel the turn at high frequency.

If he checks to pot control a lot you're still deep enough to bet the turn and bluff raise a blocking bet on the river if you brick.