As for the river I can see V value betting over-pairs but not calling with them. He has to know that you're raising flop with FDs and never have any SDs.

I doubt V will 3-bet river without 88 or 22.
A river raise is basically a FH or an overpair turned into a bluff. Tbh he might fold 33 to any raise. Go 4 max value vs a narrow calling range and shove imo.

Don't understand the first comment saying raising in terrible? Seems like the obv play to me. If you just flat and an over cars to your TT comes what can you do? Prolly have to fold to a bet. I think FDs are possible here and suited connectors with an 8 (89, T8, 87) maybe even K8suited or A8. I think raising is the correct play here

river sizing is a tough question to answer. I initially thought minraise for value, then i thought shove because his sizing looks like he is trying to get max value, but then again he could just be saving face with missed flush draw. I know we're missing good value if we minraise and he snap calls, but i think it's gonna be pretty easy for him to call very wide seeing the price he is getting to call. I vote minraise.

wow, dream river. Only the Td would be better. I agree river sizing is nontrivial.

Now given our read from before that most of his range consists of draws (which missed now), the hands we thought we were beating are now worthless on this river. Those hands might even underbluff the river (which would be consistent with his sizing) to get you to fold hands like Ad4d (which are in your range given your call/call line).

I've gone back and forth between minraising and shoving here, but actually, I think minraising is the best move. Here's why.

His medium strength value hands like 78/87, pocket pairs, A2, and T3 (that he decided to splash around with) are almost certainly going to call a minraise since he's getting ridiculous odds, and I think these make up most of the portion of his range that would consider calling.

His strong value hands only make up a tiny portion of his range but would likely 3 bet the river for value. These are hands like 23, 88, or T2 that he decided to splash around with.

But most importantly, if you minraise it gives him the opportunity to 3 bet bluff you with his missed draws (which given our read make up the majority of his range) given you would still have $750 behind. He might think you missed a draw too and that you are in a leveling war.

TLDR; our read says most of the time he has a missed draw, and that most of the rest of his range is likely to flat a minraise and less likely to call a shove, and that his boats are probably going to shove if you minraise anyway. So give him the opportunity to stubbornly try to bluff you off this pot even though he's rarely going to do that.

River bet sizing: Here's my thought on the options:
1) Min-raise: 200 Let's say he call this pretty wide, 70% of the time: EV for bet = 140
2) 2x-raise: 400 Right in the middle, maybe he calls 50% of the time, EV = 200
3) SHove: 750 Let's say he'll only call 20% of the time, EV = 150

I'd go for the Value 2x raise, still offering him great odds on the call.

Tank until the floor says you have 2 seconds left to act then stand up and announce To the dealer not the player. I'm all in. And then put on your sunglasses and look at the flop, lol

I like the idea of tanking for a while and then just grabbing a random handful of chips and moving them towards the middle . . . oh wait that is what I normally do and that is also why I am reading these forums lol.

Seriously, good discussion in this thread.

Oh yeah, I def think a little hollywood-ing on the river is called for here. I'm just not very good at acting/faking tells (in most of my hands, I just kind of channel my inner durrrrrr face, with small hand movements to check or bet, and otherwise sitting pretty still and just staring at the board), so I basically just pretended to think for about 30sec, then jammed.

After this thread, I think I also believe a smallish river raise is better than a jam. At the time I was just thinking, he's going to be so surprised by the river raise that IF he's calling any sized raise, then he's calling a jam (knowing that his calling range is very narrow, and fingers-crossed-no-quads-plz), AND he's not going to have the presence of mind to reraise-jam over my raise even if I did cooler him with 88/33.

Now that I look at it more objectively, I think a raise to like $500-600 on the river will get looked up quite often, given that it's such a cheappppp bluff size ($500 to win $825, on the river). There's no point worrying about balance here imo, so I think I should make this value-raise with 88/TT, and jam with all my bluffs. There's only 6 combos of 88/33, and we've been discounting them to begin with for the whole hand, so let's say he only really has like ~2? combos that can ever snap-call a river jam. Otoh, there's 6 combos of 99 alone, maybe 1-2 discounted combos of JJ, and then another handful of combos of 8xdd (call it 3?). That's 9-10 combos of bluff-catchers, which if we're correct in our assumption that he'll almost always call a small raise with them, is more than enough to justify it.

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A little TLDR, correct me if I'm wrong about these being the consensus opinions:

1) Flop: Raising is probably too thin vs competent/thinking opponents being this deep, but might be good against droolers/passives/maniacs/drunks/etc. Flatting is fine as default line.

2) Turn: Flatting is again, fine as a default, but raising is viable and potentially better against most opponents (exception would be an opponent who auto-barrels pretty big on a lot of brick rivers).

3) River: Probably ~3x more bluff-catcher combos than snap-calling cooler combos. Hence, if we're sure his river calling range is elastic to sizing (which seems pretty likely), a smaller raise of 2x-3x is probably better than jamming for 4.5x his river bet. Being 100% unbalanced here is probably best against this level/type of opponent.

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P.S. V1 tanked for only like 10-15sec, and kind of gave me a look that to me was like, "Seriously dude? Are you really crazy enough to blu------ nahhhhh, snapmucklol." Table started talking about the hand, and V1 mentioned that he had 99 (wtf at his river bet if true, seems like he's probably lying/covering for a missed draw), and V2 said she had 54dd and "would have gone with it" if I raised the flop (but she decided to give up when the board paired... a surprisingly reasonable decision, which if she had stuck around on the turn, would have made a turn raise/jam much better for us). For my part, I figured telling the truth was pretty unbelievable, so I just kind of put on my ****-eating grin and said something like, "duhhh, obv I hit tens full ."

I meant we can't call flop then raise turn. If we raise flop our plan's to GII sooner which would be better