You realize we basically have to fade 22 outs twice when we just call? (any over card, 8 or club)

Half the reason to raise flop is protection and this is one of the few cases where that is fine.

Overcards don't scare me too much in this scenario...

Seems as if your raising to $40 here seemed to them to be an attempt to steal the straddle/blinds. I think calling is the best thing to do preflop. Once the flop comes out I'd sit and think for a bit after V1 bets $65. I'd put him on a flush draw/str8 or a pair lower than yours. If he had a phenomenal hand I'd think he would check into 2 opponents. V2 calling a pot sized bet seems suspicious like an 8 or a set of a draw (like you've described him). You probably have the best hand at this moment but with two more in the hand and draw heavy I'd get out now. I wouldn't want to risk the pair of 10s against draws vs 2 opponents.

I wonder what happened this hand...

Just read the turn. Since you continued on the hand to the turn I'm worried about a pair higher than yours in the mix which isn't going to be folding to much betting. Also the flush draws. It's hard to imagine your opponents have a 2 given action preflop but who knows. A2? 22? 23, 24,25, K2 suited?? If I was at this point I'd consider shoving to fold out the flush draw and pairs higher than yours using the 2 as a scare card since they consider you raising light to steal the money in the pot you could very well have a 2... if he doesn't think you have a 2 he's not getting the right price to chase his draws. If they do they probably fold hands like AA KK QQ Any other hand with an 8 which is likely continuing.

That's assuming he bets every single one of the 'scare cards' you mention whether it helps him or not, a big assumption given the limited information imo. Also I wouldn't necessarily be planning to fold to a bet on every one of those scare cards anyway (but that would depend on a few other factors).

I think raising for value is pretty thin here. I prefer not to bloat the pot with a medium strength hand.

Dude run his full range and see how TT looks. We assuredly have equity but its not enough to start piling money in the pot IMO

So let's talk my perceived range for a moment, since people have covered most of the other issues. Given that it's a 3way pot on the flop, I think I have to be perceived as having a fairly solid flop raising range (i.e. not random airball bluffing $200 when V2 could easily gii for just $250 more and make me showdown something). I don't open 22/33/32 for $40 preflop (maybe I should? probably not imo), so that leaves me with a straight-up value range of 88/TT+, and semibluffs of... any Axdd (say I have 5-6 of these combos), maybe ~3 combos of T8dd/98dd/87dd/86dd/54dd/65dd/64dd (I could occasionally open these preflop, but again it's kind of unlikely), and possibly 2-3 combos of stuff like KQdd/KJdd/KTdd/QJdd. Against that range, say we give V1 a one-pair range of A8s/99/JJ, he's facing:

Board: 8s 3d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.210% 27.71% 00.50% 167095 2984.50 { JJ, 99, A8s }
Hand 1: 71.790% 71.30% 00.50% 429846 2984.50 { TT+, 88, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad5d, KdQd, KdJd, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 6d5d }

Pretty ugly for him (JJ alone does the best, at ~35%, while 99/A8 alone is at an abysmal ~20%). Hence why I said he almost assuredly folds the flop to a raise from me with his one-pair hands (and we end up flipping-ish vs V2's gii range of decent pairs and overcard/combo flush draws, which we don't mind terribly).

What about the idea of me bluff raising this flop with the Ad blocker when I whiff with like AK/AQ/AJ, since I won't get jammed on by opponents as often with draws? I feel like a flop raise looks really strong, which to me means I don't want to overrep with TT, but I would want to bluff/semibluff...

what hands is he insta-donking with into 2 players?

maybe sets a very small % of the time time? 88/22/33 will c/c or c/r flop a lot. donking this board isn't the best option against a weak-tight and an aggro behind who happens to be the pre flop raiser.

AA-QQ is 3betting pre

No 2pair in his range

What's left? Draws, 8x, 99, JJ?

Most of that range is draws; 99 and 8x are not going to be able to handle much more heat on future streets so we need to get value now.

Calling allows those draws to see a cheaper turn with a lower SPR. Raising charges draws and keeps SPR high. we can shove a lot of brick turns comfortably if we raise to like $250. we can also get it in and expect to have good odds to fade diamonds if he shoves to our 3bet.

Raising is clearly the best play here.

If we're calling flop we have to call the turn. If we think raising flop rather than calling is bad then ott it's even worse. I'm up for calling and calling any river bet otherwise bet or check behind on super gross rivers if he checks.

no if we raise flop how is it worse on the turn?

SPR is very close to 1 or whatever and we can just shove any clean turns and expect to get called by draws that dont have the odds to call

thats not hard?

This is not going to happen. V1 as straightforward TAG is not flatting a flop raise to check/call-it-off on a blank turn with any draw. Yeah A5dd or AQdd look pretty, but it's 12-15 outs with 1 card to come; I know I said he came from the 2/5 PLO game, but I don't think he looked like the super draw happy type. Mid 40's white male, hoodie, hat, no headphones. Seemed to be in a good mood, looked and acted like a winning TAG. In game, I assumed he'd have the discipline to make the turn laydown if the hand played out like you described here.

Maybe if V1 and V2's positions and stacks were swapped, this would be reasonable.

fair enough, just seems like a lot of villains, even in the decent ones, dont really count how much is in the pot and their odds.

The guy has been at the table 1 orbit and seems like a "straight forward TAG". So you are expecting him (or any typical 2/5 player) to stick > 200bb in with just a flush draw?

Personally i'd need some pretty solid information on the villain to be putting my stack at risk here.

This is kind of interesting to me, because I had been thinking of coloring up before this hand, but as it stood, I had 11 stacks of red and 1 black chip. V1 also had like ~12 stacks of red and not quite 2 stacks of greens ($25). Stack meaning 20 chips.

So if I had raised the flop and gotten obliging calls from either V1 or V2 (and no jams, woooo), then a turn jam of $800-900 from me "looks" like a lot, since it's all red chips. I would never actually push the stacks into the pot either, just announce all-in and get the "all-in" button with maybe one stack of chips pushed forward.

I think having a big/intimidating chip stack here hurts me in this hypothetical turn scenario, but I mean I don't think it matters all that much.

EDIT: Also to your point of people often not tracking the size of pots, I think that's definitely true, and something to be aware of. However, in this specific hand, I think V1's flop bet of $65 into $130 and his turn bet of $150 into $325 both scream deliberation, since he pegged his bet size at basically exactly 50% both times. Just another reason I counted him as a competent TAG.

straight forward tag doesnt mean he is good

lots of "TAGs" play flush draws too hard

im not sure what he'll do on the flop after we raise with his flush draw.

also if its a combo draw or a pair + FD, etc - i think a lot of villains might deliberate or even fold sometimes, but there will definitely be a lot of villains who incorrectly make the call

Definitely flatting flop but the "if we flat flop we have to flat turn" conversation is a bit drab imo.

The only reason to flat turn is if he's going balls to the wall on all rivers, otherwise we are just allowing him free equity.

Just wanted to point that out. I'm fine with flatting turn and calling all non rivers, but only if we think he's firing a third barrel with air.

Most villains aren't capable of the third barrel on non bad cards when we show strength such as this.

Donk bet OTF is a strange move with a strong combo draw like A4dd, 87dd, 45dd. This is good enough board texture that he should expect a cbet from you, so wouldn't he go for a check raise in that spot most of the time? Those are still in his range, but I'm putting more weight on naked straight draws, naked flush draws, and 78/89 non-diamond suited. Against this range where we weight down combo draws, we are quite ahead, and better yet those hands are pretty likely to continue betting the turn (i think 78/89 will be turned into a bluff on a lot of turns given flatting the flop underreps your hand). V2 I'm not as worried about, as I think we can snap fold if he starts making noise on scary turn cards.

I call flop with the intention to bluff catch the turn, as we have position and can comfortably bluff catch to showdown unless the turn/river bring catastrophic cards. If he checks the turn on a brick we can make a 1/2 pot sized bet and call a raise for value.

btw: I especially like bluff catching on this board texture because non-face card fairly wet boards are unlikely to hit your raising range and I think people are more willing to bluff in these spots.

This is basically my entire thought process about this hand. Are you me?

I thought a flop raise was too thin, but I thought pretty hard about a turn raise here... whereas on the flop, he's got leverage over me by reraising his combo draws, on this turn card (literally tied for the 2nd best turn card in the deck, other than the T) I've got leverage over him if I raise. Facing a raise, he can't really make a great turn decision with any of his most likely hands; the best he can do is probably rejam, but I think I'm prepared to call it off pretty happily here vs the flop where I'm flipping/behind.

I think with only a tiny bit of history (1 random hand where he got a $75 value bet out of me that I mentioned in the OP), there's no reason to expect he'd hero-jam the turn over my raise (I'd make it $400-500, after his $150?). So he probably gives up like 80-90% of the time? I mean, I'm realllllllyyyy discounting sets-which-are-now-boats at this point (is that wrong?).

---

Best case: I raise turn to $450, he tank calls, river is blank, and I... bet? I mean we've basically discounted every hand better than TT to nothing, and if it blanks off he could potentially try to bluff-catch me still.

Medium case: a black river Ace, and then it's gut-check time if he open-jams.

Worst case: obviously any non-T .

This might be dumb but I don't think we can eliminate the possibility that he flatted a huge hand pre-flop. I know you said he is competent but I have seen a lot of players at these stakes flat AA from the blinds and then donk bet draw heavy boards because they change gears from trapping to protecting their hands once a scary board appears. Just a thought. Would maybe assign like a 2-5% probability of that here but not impossible.

No I don't think this is dumb at all. I just don't think he would do this in a vacuum. 3betting QQ+ 100% is for sure his default here. He has know to something or at least think that he knows something about my game or V2 tendencies to deviate by flatting a big hand preflop. But he's only been here for 1 orbit, I look like a young dude iso-raising the bad/weak reg limper... why the heck would he randomly choose this hand to flat pre with QQ+?

I'm going to bed soon, so I might as well throw the turn action and river card out there before I go.

Turn: 8 3 2 2, pot $325.

V1 leads again for $150, V2 folds, Hero takes about 10 sec again and... calls.

In the moment, I thought a turn raise looked too strong, and I thought V1 would fold pretty much everything. Thinking back on it now, I think raising is better than calling, because V1's range is capped and it's the best chance for me to get stacks in. I don't think calling is super terrible, and it's probably better against an opponent who will auto-barrel missed rivers (especially if he's going to barrel big). In a relative vacuum though, raising turn gives V1 more of a chance to make a mistake, so it's good in a fundamental-theorem-of-poker way, IMO.

River: 8 3 2 2 T, pot $625.

LOL. Remember what I said about the turn card being the 2nd best card in the deck?

V1 takes slightly longer on the river (like 5-6 sec instead of 2-3 sec), and leads a third time for $200. We have ~$950 behind. Does anyone like any raise other than all-in? Fwiw, I do not think V1 is capable of hero-calling an all-in with anything less than a boat himself; he's more likely to just accept that I have what I rep (88/TT), even though it's super super narrow. He may even be capable of laying down 33 (what a gross spot that would be, in his shoes).

I really kinda wish I didn't just flat, flat, bink, in this hand. I feel like there was a lot of potential for interesting/tricky spots with every street, depending on what cards rolled off on turn and river. Instead, I just got lucky to get almost the best runout possible, while taking the safest action on every street. I do think the bet-sizing question on the river is non-trivial, but I'm sure most of you will laugh at me for thinking that.

I'm not even sure river is a call all the time. Frankly if he bombs river it's a fold a lot. But these posts saying "he only has draws...lets pile 200BB with TT"...just wow

he so rarely has a hand that beats us here. you seem like you're looking at the absolute strength of TT which is generally pretty mild rather than the relative strength which is pretty strong in this situation.

also i think you're overestimating the villain. like i said before, just because hes an abc tag doesnt mean he's good. ive seen abc tags who pile with flush draws no matter what the odds are. theyre extremely prevalent in live poker.

On the river, the only other reasonable option is $425. I am torn. On the one hand, my default play here is to shove and let him level himself into a call (there are a lot of busted draws out there). On the other hand, with your read, it seems like this may be a spot where any hand he would have called a shove with, he'd also 3bet shove himself. If that is in fact true, a smaller raise is better because we get all-in against the same range but now can get called by some other hands too. But if not, I'd rather just shove. It does seem like this river bet polarizes him. Would he really bet this river with 8x after all the draws miss and an overcard falls?