If this was <150bb I would just snap get it in on the flop knowing the dead cards, but I decide to call and see what the turn brings:



Hero dealt AK and raises to $12, V calls, the next player accidentally exposes a 2 and 3 while folding, all others fold and BB calls.

Flop ($37): A23

BB checks, hero bets $23, V raises to $83, BB folds. I ask her why such a big raise and she says she doesn't want to see any more hearts. Hero calls.

Turn ($203): Q

Hero?

I stick with my original plan and check for pot control, planning to c/c most run-outs and bets.

Hate that card.

I've written out like 4 responses and then changed my mind, lol. I think I just b/f like $90. Her GII with 99 in a 3b pot makes me think she isn't that great and possibly doesn't think a lot about bet size in relation to the pot. Maybe inform her that there wasn't another heart?

You're in position, right? What did V do on turn?

I'm out of position.

Doesn't sound like he's in position to me.

Then the more experienced you are, the less you are constrained to those guidleines...

And that set-mine example doesn't work ever, you don't double up often enough, so even when you do double up, it didn't work.

Yeah. What's the problem? Way too many people think that if X is a high enough number, you can't fold getting X:1 on your money. If you're behind often enough (which is what my line is going for, max. value and at the same time V is telling us when we're crushed), then 65:1 may not be good enough odds, you can fold. 610/190 = 3.2:1, so if you're equity is less than 1/3.2 = 31.3%, fold. Nothing is forcing you to call ai for another $190 just because you're getting 3.2:1 on the call.

For some reason, you are sure about these things. I wasn't at the table, that's why I said "If you're confident" and "If she isn't thinking 'Ah fuqq it'" and why I added that I knew the plan was "completely contingent on her turn raising range." Meaning that WJ knows best, and if these conditions are true, I love a b/f.

I am aware, the "f" in "b/f" stands for "fold."

I'd c/f if a heart hit, I expect to get to showdown with non fd hands and not be turning her non fd hands into a bluff repping the hearts. Shoving for value if a 2/3/4/5 hit. I don't expect her to call with worse 100% of the time but the only wheel I'd be scared of is 45, so she already has it ott or she won't have it at all. Q/J is most difficult imo, sometimes blocking bet/fold, sometimes check/fold, sometimes lead for value.

If someone makes a pot-sized bet you need 33.3% equity to call. Does 190 look as big as the pot 800?

800/190 = 4.2 to 1. Then it's 1 / (4.2 + 1) or 1/5.2. That's not .313.

190/990 = 19.2%.

Whoops. Sorry. 😬

Yeah, that's my point. I was going to say "DUCY?" but I'll just explain it. All of the hands that you (as hero) love, so 2P+, are probably shipping the flop, and most Vs know this. If you are tricky, you can call otf and check ott to c/r or let V dig her own grave. It's very rare at 1/2 that you will ever see someone smooth call with a straight here and then bet a blank turn.

Betting a blank turn looks like either a "tell-me-where-I'm-at" bet or a weirdly played AXhh/combo draw. A smart V will recognize that it doesn't make sense, and an aggressive V (like the one we have here) will now have the opportunity to shove with the range we gave her. Therefore if we do make it to the turn, I think a check is the best option, given that our perceived range will be wider (although she may bomb it anyway if she puts us on hearts).

You're forgetting to account for how often your opponents' ranges will widen as they read through your fps, and she still has the option of jamming with AXhh and other hands we beat.

As an alternative, if we b/c the flop, we can now c/evaluate the turn. I'm not saying she won't have AQ/AJ, but by leading ott it gives her a chance to outmaneuver us.

Lol...the HH stated she was the aggressor in a 4-way all-in pot with 99 - I think your "conditions" are wishful thinking. Instead of pointing out technicalities like 5-10% of the time I will be wrong and I should qualify my statements with "if", try to focus on the bigger picture here, i.e. how this play will work for us in the future. I realize that she won't always take the same action, I just figured that you would also realize it.


Please continue to b/f hundreds of dollars at 1/2 against aggro asian ladies

He's actually right, because the pot is $610 before we call, and only becomes $800 when all the money is in (it never reaches $990). We also have to calculate the odds of winning only what is in the pot, because our $190 is not at risk until we call.

I got that math wrong, thanks au4all. But you know what I meant, getting X:1 means nothing if you have < [1/(X+1)]% equity.

So we're not giving 1/2 Vs enough credit to slow down when they flop a made hand, flat it, and put the big money in ott. But we are giving 1/2 Vs enough credit to recognize and exploit bets for information and turn w/e hands they have into a bluff shove?

A b/f isn't fps. Against a 1/2 player pool it's probably your most used tool.

Just because some is aggro doesn't mean he/she is looking for lines that don't make 100% sense to shove as a bluff.

I just don't like lines that have "evaluate" in them. She's betting if checked to. So it's c/f, c/c, or c/shove. I don't know what information Hero will get when she bets ott that he doesn't have now. I'd just prefer you make a decision of those three choices which one you're doing.

So if she's so aggro that she can be doing this with worse the whole way, or she's on the alert for weakness ready to shove, or she can spot a blocking bet 100 miles away, and even her draws that don't have huge equity anymore vs AK she'll play super strong, then why do you want to c/eval? Bet to induce a shove and call it off.

As played to turn, check/call. She took initiative with her flop raise, no need to go "cra-cra" bloating the pot. TPTK STILL isn't strong enough to stack off with.

First of all, you seem to assume she is only on draws here. Yes there are dead cards, but it's not like we haven't all seen AA>AK on an AKx board before.

Second of all, if she does have something like A4-AQhh, she is probably shipping, therefore our line would have to be b/c, not b/f. By betting into her you're only getting value from AQ/AJ.

B/f when we have the initiative against Vs who don't slowplay but always call with draws and dominated hands is obviously useful. A b/f donk lead into someone who 4x'd our bet otf is fps.

Shoving AXhh is a semi-bluff, and it would apparently be effective if you advocate folding.

Lol, you can have a plan for the turn. But it depends on certain variables, which we can evaluate after she makes her bet on the turn. Sizing? Timing? Physical tells? Maybe she'll say something again? But by betting into her, you're actually giving her a lot more info about your hand.

I'm saying blocking bets are exploitable on the turn, since hands with equity can push and you won't know where you're at. Therefore yes, if you bet a blank (i.e. 9c) ott, I think you have to call a shove, since we're going to be ahead of her drawing hands (if we assume she shoves with AQo+ and AXhh our total equity is ~53%, and if we assume she calls with AQo and ships AQs+ we're at 41%). We would basically be flipping for $800, but at that point we've made our bed. I still prefer a c/c or c/f ott depending on what card it is and bet sizing etc. A b/f is the last of my options though.

I don't know why you think that, but no.

So if she's shoving even the hands our AK is dominating over our turn lead, that would be a good thing, why do you want to check/eval and let her check behind some of the time? Why don't you want to bet/call?

I never said to b/f a V who's capable of semi-bluffs.

Some small portion of the time some of these things might make a tiny difference. But if you're planning your line to make sure you receive these pieces of information, you're many steps behind.

A blocking bet and a b/f aren't the same thing.

You keep saying that V is 100% shoving pretty much every hand if we lead ott. But you keep saying you want to c/eval. If leading ott forces V to shove her hands that we're beating...that's a good thing, I don't know why you don't want that. So your stance seems to be, if we bet, V is shoving 100%, but instead of making her shove the bottom of her range having no FE and little equity in general, it's better to check and let her see a free river if she wants. Those don't add up.

1) Meant to say draws and hands that we dominate.

2) I don't like flipping for $800 pots ott. Obviously she will have us crushed some % of the time, and that's a lot of variance if we always make plays like this. That's why for me, losing $35 in total is preferred to playing a 400 BB pot OOP.

3) If we're putting hearts in her range otf, then she was semi-bluffing. Why can't she do the same ott if we assume she did it otf?

4) My line is defined by the fact that we just got raised on the flop, therefore I'm going to check and see what V does next instead of betting to see where I'm at, because that gives her room to maneuver and make the best decision. The fact that it is a live game, and we can see what action she takes and how she takes it can be crucial. And if you don't think betsizing is a massive component to hand-reading (whether live or online), on top of basic physical tells, then you're probably missing some great spots.

5) I'm saying that by betting it gives her the opportunity to shove over us, which is a gross spot but we can't fold because she's so aggro. That being said, we have zero history playing against her. If we check and she checks behind I'm happy, because I feel like I have the best hand. No need to shovel money in because we have TPTK and there's a FD on board.

Hero dealt AK and raises to $12, V calls, the next player accidentally exposes a 2 and 3 while folding, all others fold and BB calls.

Flop ($37): A23

BB checks, hero bets $23, V raises to $83, BB folds. I ask her why such a big raise and she says she doesn't want to see any more hearts. Hero calls.

Turn ($203): Q

Hero checks, V bets $90. Hero?

Obvious call is obvious. Don't turn your hand into a bluff on the off chance this is a largish blocking bet with a draw.

Hate folding now. Call turn.

Plan for blank rivers if calling?

C/eval, with default being call. I think I enumerated the whole line in post #2 ITT.

Results:

Even though she told you exactly why she raised the flop?

People usually say that when they have the nut heart draw