Hero ($850) in MP: Late 20's reg, probably seen as relatively aggro, haven't had too many showdown hands. Just stacked someone a few hands ago when I raised to $14 with AA, three people called, SB 3b to $64, I 4b to $210 putting him all-in and he called with 99 and I held.

V ($400) on my direct left: 40's Asian woman, seems somewhat aggro, saw her 3b 99 on the button after an UTG raise to $6 and four calls. She ended up winning a 3-way all-in on a 5676 board.

Hero dealt AK and raises to $12, V calls, the next player accidentally exposes a 2 and 3 while folding, all others fold and BB calls.

Flop ($37): A23

BB checks, hero bets $23, V raises to $83, BB folds. I ask her why such a big raise and she says she doesn't want to see any more hearts. Hero?

Gross. Wish we weren't so deep, I'd snap gii. With all those blockers, sets are super unlikely, as are two pair hands. 45, FDs, and worse aces are most of her range. If we call, we're basically committed to calling down.

I probably call and c/c down, given the hand witnessed before. She could often be doing this for value with worse aces. Don't love it, though

I think a lot of villains at 1-2 make these kinds of plays as a sort of merge bet where they can find out where they're at and sometimes get value from weaker holdings. This does put you in an awkward spot because you are now forced to turn your hand face up. If she is doing this with Ax then I think it will be hard for you to extract more value once you call flop.

I like a call a call on the flop. If you thnk she continues the agression with Ax on turn you can check, however I think she is more likely to shut down with any hands that aren't beating you, so I like a lead for value on turn. If she raises again you can confidently fold.

Awesome cards exposed.

I believe she's being honest in not wanting to see more hearts.

Pretty much leaves her with 3 combos of 54s, 1 of 22, and 1 of 33 that beat us.

We beat AQ, AJ, AT, etc. That's a ton of combos.

And since she probably is afraid of hearts (action killers could come later), and I think you're well ahead of the range she stacks off with on the flop, I'd raise and get it in now.

I'm a little torn on calling or raising but why was your flop bet so small? Why not $25-$28

yup

That raise size seems polarizing to me. Would expect worse aces to either raise smaller or just call. I think her range looks something more like 54s, 33, 22, A3s, A2s, AK, A4hh, A5hh, AThh, AJhh, AQhh, 65hh, K5hh, K4hh, 64hh, 75hh. There's also no guarantee she would semi bluff the FD + gutter hands. Seems nitty and exploitable but I'd fold this deep.

+1

If she has 45hh, she seems smart enough to know not seeing a 3rd heart > hitting her flush. But it was just $12 pre, I don't know that you can say she's only playing suited 45's.

Raising here is a bad play. What is our plan on turn when called? Dump in 200bb with TP?

Since we do to have the Ah, she can have atleast 10 combos of pair + NFD to which we are almost 50-50.

Add in the strong part of her range (2p+) we are 2:1 dog. I'm not gii here.

I'm calling and c/folding if I face heat on turn.

Well, obviously never folding once we raise.

So, to answer your question, yes.

Duh, I didn't even think about A2 or A3. Obviously they're well blocked, but it's time to go to sleep.

I don't know how you can fold when the number of possible sets goes from 7 to 3 knowing the exposed cards.

3b the flop only gets action from hands you're behind unless she'll go to war with Ax.

I probably call here and check most turns.

I don't like the idea of stacking off 200 bb in this spot when our only redraw is to a (non-heart?) K, and even that may not be good. After giving her a super generous range of AJo+, A2+, 22/33, 45s and combo draws (and removing 23o), we're ~50%.

If we were drawing with that % then we can feel pretty comfortable deciding what to do, but in this spot given the board texture we are either only slightly ahead or completely crushed. Shoving is pretty bad IMO. Peeling one is meh but odds are she isn't going to slow down based on description, so I probably fold.

Except for all the times she's "putting you on KK/QQ/JJ" and doing this with AT+.

It's not even a PSB. Call and see what happens OTT. Having the 2 and 3 exposed really affects her range.

I understand, but from my experience the raise will generally be a little smaller in those cases, because they know their hand is not amazing and they don't expect JJ-KK to call anyway (and they're afraid of AK). And even if she has AQ (mayyybe AJ), she doesn't sound like the type of V to slow down ott.

Therefore, more often than not we're going to end up going into call-down mode, which is pretty gross on a board this wet with maybe 3 outs 200 BB deep against a V we have no significant history with. If I know I am going to fold the turn against more aggression, why call the flop?

Except , hero's flop size may be incorrectly interpreted by villain as weakness or that hero is on a FD

Accurate ranging will also vary by location and the general player tendencies of that player pool. In the local casino that I usually play at it is the exception rather than the norm to see someone overvalue AQ and AJ with a big raise here but I have played in places where a decent chunk of the player pool will overvalue those hands in this spot. It also sometimes varies with hero's image, i.e. if hero has a lag or slag image someone is more likely to raise AQ/AJ for value thinking they're ahead as opposed to hero having a tag or nitty image.

95% of the time this would be a chop at best for me.



What is there to do on the flop though? I feel like the turn is the big decision. The hands that Hero is ahead of that isn't likely to improve (AX not hearts) is folding to a 3-bet otf. I have a plan for the turn, I just don't see anything but a call otf.

I'd b/f ott. With AQ/AJ she's probably not raising after we lead for a second time. And with hearts, she'll probably just hope to spike now that only 1 card is left. So we're getting value from AhXh and AQ/AJ/AT but the only hands coming over the top are the unlikely sets/2-pairs and wheels.

Completely agree that it depends on the location, as well as hero's image, etc.

I like your thought process, but there are a couple issues with this play IMO.

1) After we call, the pot is going to be ~$200. How much do you plan on betting? Anything < $100 is going to look like a blocking bet, and anything > $100 is basically committing us to call (I'm not a fan of putting in $200+ and then folding to a shove).

2) I think leading in general looks very weak and many times will be interpreted as a draw or a "tell-me-where-I'm-at bet", so I would prefer to do it with a stronger hand that can call if she shoves. She is clearly aggro enough to do this, and from my experience it is a profitable play.

3) If she calls, what are your plans for a Q/J/2/3/4/5/Xh/blank river? If you decide to check all rivers, which cards will you fold or call a shove on?

I'd call, as I wouldn't know what to do if she comes back over the top. Sorry, I'm not going to stack off 200bbs otf with TPTK. Sure, 23 was exposed. Well there's still two more of each in play.

Also, I wouldn't necessarily believe her about the hearts. She could have Axhh, and her speech could lead to her getting paid if the heart comes.

This for sure
fist pump check shoving all non hearts ott

Pot would be $190 ott and eff stacks would be $305. If you're confident in her only coming over the top ott with better, you can b/f $110. I understand you'd be putting in $205 and folding. I feel like the better/more experienced you are, the less often you will be constrained to the "Don't put in X% of your stacks and fold" rules. I don't love that play but there are spots that come up that I don't love, and you need to do something. If she isn't thinking "Ah fuqq it" and shoving AQ/AJ/AXhh ott then this is the best play imo. But yes, the play is completely contingent on her turn raising range.

If we are thinking about folding AK then it shows the value of piling any turn with axhh

It's not a rule, it's a guideline. Like "don't call $15 pre with 22 when your stack is $100." Sometimes it will work but most often it won't. Now pot is $203 minus rake (if you want to be exact), so eff stacks are 300, and you want to bet $110, making the pot ~$310. If she shoves for her remaining 300, pot will be $610, and you're going to fold for $190 more??

What about the HH makes you think that V won't say "ahh, **** it" and just call? If she has any combo draw/AXhh she is shipping, if she has any hand better than ours she is shipping, and who knows, she might just ship with AQ. Just because you "don't love a spot" doesn't mean you have to pile chips in the pot - it's ok to fold the best hand sometimes. If we fold on the flop this hand cost us $35.

There's a reason why cash game players love it when tournaments come to town. We hit an A with AK and we're pot committed for 200+ BB? All I'm saying is that there's a reason you don't see many $800 pots at 1/2 won by a top pair, especially when the money goes in on the turn.

You also completely ignored the last part of my post, which is what do we do on the river if she does just call ott?