So...? What did Hero have?

I cant imagine why people think Hero would/should fold a set here. Fold to what? The possibility of AJ? The way the hand played out I just dont see how a set folds to that river bet, but Id love to hear the thought process behind what a couple of you have suggested...

Oops. Simultaneous posts

I assumed you were the Hero and I doubt getting over 3:1 to call on the river you'd fold any set. Folding a set getting those odds would be bad, as you yourself said.

But you'd have to call it only needing to be right 1/4 times.

jarretman changed tables before the hand (and was not involved.) I never knew he was a 2p2er before yesterday... I was like, "Fcuk... Another one? lol" That's 6 I know of (and 5 of them were in the room yesterday.) I miss the days when people just showed up and gave me money.

So, let's have a stab.

Pre, Hero's range should be 100% premiums for value. Given there is only $6 in the pot, he is OOP and one of the limpers has 20BB it should be 99+, A10+ and KJ+, depending on limpers tendencies. At this stage, villains range is virtually ATC.

OTF hero's check should be jj-99 and Aj and A10. I don't think he should be checking AQ here since short stack will call with any piece (which includes plenty stuff we beat with AQ) and villains range is capped, whereas Hero's is ridiculously strong, meaning he can/should be barrelling almost 100% 200BB deep. All this is assuming Villain isn't a donkey.

OTT Hero's range should be AJ and 1010. ONLY J9 beats him.

OTR AJ is still the nuts so Hero can only really have b/f 10 10 which seems bad to me. Given villains tiny value range and the ever present possibility of spazzes this should be a call getting this price.

I can't help thinking somebody has had a FPS shocker somewhere in this hand.

There is no spoiler in that spoiler.

I'd like you here what villain said he had. I'm guessing he didn't say he had K2 because calling PF with that hand is horrible, and admitting to having called PF with it should make him look very bad.

Actually calling with anything other than 22 is horrible. So I'd expect him to say he had 222. It's the only hand that doesn't make him look like a donkey.

But again, why not be willing to show, but be willing to tell?

No.

Yeah, no s***. 3 tables going and 5 2p2ers is ridiculous.

but I don't count cause I'm still a newbie.....and I wasn't the hero either!

Im curious since ive heard the ole "i called since it was a good price" line quite a bit lately. Where do you guys draw the line between getting a good price being a "sucker call" and a "good call" that cant be turned down?

Meaning, players will bet less because they know our range is weak and thus it gives hero a good price, but only because that price is by design for a call. Thus, the call is incorrect in reality. So where i wonder to other players draw the line on such bets? It reminds me of where Jman28 said it best, to make bets where its correct for villain to call vs our range, however incorrect to call vs our exact hand.

Best example i can give is when we bet flop and turn with AT on AQxx and then x river comes, we check and villain bets like 35-40% pot at river (and there were very few draws on flop and turn at all). So yea, we get a great price however is this a good call just because it seems to be a good price?

Good price here meaning, I think I'm good enough of the time to make the call profitable as no hand makes any sense given his line. A2dd and J2dd make as much sense (if not more sense) as K2dd or Q2dd. Am I so wrong?

EDIT: I'd say that A2dd made the most sense out of all those hands and that's why I actually think a call with ANY pair would be reasonable (and A high not horrible.)

FWIW i wasnt knocking your statement of calling for good price. It just jarred my thoughts to ask the question. Maybe it should have been just a plain new thread.

To answer ur question though, i would call his raise here for one reason and its not due to the price. Villain played crazily and i guess went ahead and shoved just because he had such little cash left. His shove should be -EV overall in this spot for sure. So its like when a fish misreads his own hand, then he gives off incorrect info to good handreaders, who then calldown incorrectly because of the incorrect signals being given off.

What on earth did Hero have here? AK?

Other than 10-10 Im having trouble figuring what he had that he decided to check the Flop, raise the turn and fold the river which was basically a blank for most Villain hand ranges (other, of course, than what he actually called with preflop in this case...)

Haven't read the spoilers yet but villain looks like he has a one pair hand on the flop, turned bd diamonds and is c/ring for value.

As hero I :
- call with any 2 pair, any set
- muck AK, probably muck AA
- definitely do not take this line with ANY hand which mucks that river. I can see a case for playing a range of hands this way as a line variation; 100% of this range calls the river.

villains line is horrifically terrible. Expecting to CR and be good here is off the chart bad.

+1

Id say hero had JJ or AQ

Hero has KJdd and can't call. Villain with A2dd sniffed out the busted draw and realized that. Nh.

I think hero was looking for MP to bet the flop when checked to.

Hero should move back up to where they respect his raises.

What I deduced before I knew the hands (or what the participants told me they were holding.)

PF: I figured Hero was 'value' raising a top 10% hand. MP could have anything as he was bad and Villain could have any playable holding as they (Hero and him) were 200bb+ deep and he made some loose calls PF.

Flop: Villain could have hit a piece of that board but was going to check to the raiser as it hammers his range. Hero must have 'wiffed' or hit it so hard he decided to check to let his opponents catch up (but he's more the type to start building a pot.) Because he likely missed he didn't want to bet and have MP call and lose to the MP with any piece (plus Villain could be checking a made hand as well although not that likely.)

Turn: Villain leads as he thought Hero would have bet the flop and when he didn't he saw a green light to go ahead and take the pot down. He might have something, he might not and the turn did bring BD diamonds. When Hero raises he's representing a really big hand that was lying in wait for somebody to take a shot at the pot. It's either that or that the Td hit him really hard (set, 2P, or a straight.) When the villain calls the raise I put him on either the NFD or a pair that picked up BD diamonds (maybe even JXdd with straight outs as well.) I did not put him on a made hand as I think he would have re-popped. There's also a chance that Hero is bluffing (and only repping a big hand) because he figures that Villain is taking a stab and his line could look strong.

River: Total Blank: Villain checks, Hero now bets an amount that looks like a value bet (kinda) but then again what does he expect to get value from? Therefor his hand becomes polarized between huge hands and weak hands that he thinks he needs to bet to win (such as JJ,TX,99,etc.) He might figure this because after Villain calls the turn there is a good chance he has the KXdd or QXdd and he would lose if checks behind but surely those hands can't call. Hero's tank before betting was either figuring out the perfect bet to get called or how much he'd need to bet to get a fold. Hero was also definitely considering shoving (as he asked for a chip count from Villain) but figured the pot was too small for that. Now Villain could be thinking the same thing as me. It's either a huge hand or a weak hand (or a one pair hand that he can make fold but most of those would check behind.) Now he either has a missed draw and thinks he can bluff Hero off his weak one pair hands (that Hero has turned into a bluff) if he doesn't have a K or Q as this is a spot where u'd never bluff OR he may think he's ahead and now thinks Hero won't be able to fold his one pair hands to such a crazy line getting such a good price (but how?)

Since the lines of either player make no sense and Villain's hands are either AXdd,JXdd or KXdd,QXdd (and sometimes TP with w/e the other flop card was) I call with any pair as I am right more than enough times to justify the call. The reason why I say this is because a big hand wouldn't check the river hoping for a bet too often and a weird 2P hand would likely just call Hero's river bet.

If Villain did have Q2dd (as he says he did) then I truly believe him when he said he didn't know what he was betting for on the river (value or bluff.) I still think there is a good chance it was A2dd or J2dd and he got really lucky that Hero couldn't find a call.

EDIT: If this post makes no sense it's because it was done on my BB and since it was long I kind of got lost in my thoughts.

But the Hero had?

I guess that could explain the line he took, but in that case, not just checking behind on the River was a really bad play.

this is exactly how i was looking at it as well, tried replying to this thread a few times but kept getting distracted etc.

anyway, i had hero at the top of his range something like J9dd and at the bottom QT with a set like TT in the middle. I thought maybe smashed flop wants opponents to catch up, but in a raised pot i'd probably still be leading out all sets save for KK maybe.

hero knows he's getting a good price to call with his entire VB range plus less, villain should know this too, meaning villain _should_ have a nut flush (or close to it). However because this is obvious, there's a level or 2 deeper this could go - villain can be taking a stab thinking hero can make a "hero laydown", so should this mean hero should be calling with the bottom of his range of hands he's c/r'ed on the turn on the river? I dont know, this depends on how deep the level war went.

Also, villain is more likely to have a nice diamond draw here thinking he'll get paid off by a set simply because of the pot odds being given on the river. So basically the fold is either a great fold in this spot specifically (although setting himself up for some future metashit), or a bad one in that he should be calling with at least a set here. This answer im not so certain of whatsoever.