played this hand tonight, pretty loose 1/2 table in general.

Hero ($450ish): early 30s, wearing a hoodie, talkative to other players, mostly about playoffs. as the table sees me, i'm probably LAGgy to them. they've seen me show down some lighter raised/3! hands, so they've started calling me lighter. V is new to table though, so he may see me as a TAG, since I haven't raised much since he sat down about 1.5 orbits ago.

Villain ($300ish): 50s-60s indian guy. hasnt played a ton, but just sat down. definitely leak is calling 3! pots OOP.

History:
I only have 1 real hand against him. V ($150ish) opens from UTG+2 to 10 , folds to me, i ($cover) 3! to 25 with AA on button, he's only caller. flop comes Q9xss. V check, i cbet 30, calls. Turn red 10, V checks, i bet 70, he shoves, i call, he has KJ for a gutter ball straight.

Hand (exactly 1 orbit after history hand)
folds to V UTG+2, makes it $14
folds to Hero (AA) on btn, 3! to $35
folds around to V who calls

Flop ($73-5=$68): 235
V checks
Hero cbets $50
V calls

as he calls this, i'm thinking an A really is a pretty crappy card for the Turn, so what do i get???

Turn ($168): A
V checks
Hero??

what's my sizing here is really the question? there's only a few combos of s i really think he has here {KQ, KJ, QJ, outside chance of K10, Q10, J10} so I'm not super worried about the FD. redraws are completely possible obviously, so i want to get some value....

edit: oh, i did forget to mention him having a 4: not worried about it basically ever....

thoughts?

Bet 100. Get value from overpairs to flop with a heart. A fairly big part of his range. If he has hearts he probably CRAI here. He has a 4 rarely.

Ok if you know his leak is calling 3bets oop why are you 3 betting so little? Go like 55 minimum ffs.

On turn im going to check. V only has 215 left, so you are committing yourself to that amount because i dont see him just calling there. Its shove better/fold worse situation for the V.

River value bet if checked to again.

at the time of this hand it wasnt apparent, the only other 3! was the hand I mentioned. as he played longer after this hand it became obvious.

granted, he did call a 3! with KJo oop, so you are right, i should have popped bigger

Based a on a very loose pre-flop three-bet calling range then giving your opponent a reasonable flop check/calling range. I'd guess that on the turn your opponent has improved to a straight or a flush about only about twenty percent of the time. I would value-bet turn. Most hands that can improve to beat you if we check are going to call the turn bet anyways. The hands that can't spike against you have almost no equity, they can't improve so they aren't calling a bet now or calling a bet if they saw a river.

One last thing... I also kind of disagree with this poster I quoted below:

First your opponent doesn't know we have a set. Our perceived range for a bet isn't always Ax+. There are some worse hands your opponent can shove. There are also worse hands your opponent can call with. I agree though he can have better hands sometimes too.

Your 3bets are way too small. The flop bet on both hands is also way too small. Start potting it and collect the money.

If you bet 95 at the minimum, and he c/r shoves with a flush, you're getting the right odds to call to boat/quad up.

Pot would be ~ 170 pot + 95 bet+ 215 shove = 480. And we'd need to call 215 -95 = 120, exactly 4:1, 20%.

bet 120 committing yourself to call his shove. also, as stated by everyone else, your 3! needs to larger

This is an interesting point I always wondered about. That is, are we artificially creating the odds for ourselves to call the raise, despite whether our initial bet was correct?


If we are ahead here anyways, why not just shove and hopefully he calls with an ace and a heart? Why give him odds to draw another card and fold if bricked otr?

Thanks for the advice, especially the 3! sizing, I didn't realize I was making them too small.

Results:

lol at him folding a heart. Good bet. He had non-heart overpair on flop.

Yeah thats why I said hes folding worse and shoving better to bet on turn, like you said ace was a bad card for him to continue with just one pair with little FE otr. Since you had the ace of heart, he couldnt be calling otf with an ace high flush draw.
A turn check and a thin value bet on non heart river will be more likely to get a call from other pairs.

I believe him if he had a pair + heart, think only kh and maaaybe qh would continue ott. But then again i dont think he plays that way otf woth kk or qq, so he probably had jj at the best. More likely 99-tt.

Hero doesn't have Ah. It fell on turn.

Sorry, i knew there was a reason why he couldnt have an Ah - that was it.

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yeah.... that's a pretty awful reason for that bet size. I can call if he shoves!

errr no.

More general thoughts:

- Your 3b is a tad small. That's OK in the grand scheme of things, but I'm making it at least 40 thinking the calling frequency is about the same.
- I'm really not that concerned about the hearts. With the 3bet and the ace on the turn, there just aren't many combos out there.
- I'm really not that concerned about the 4. 3bet pot and such makes it pretty damn unlikely.

Turn seems like a small bet is correct. Villain will come along with a lot of heart draws. At the same time, we can't go pure value because the ace is such a bad card for his range that we're trying to value.

3 bet needs to be bigger, somewhere around 55-60. as played i am betting turn 130 and not folding to shove.

I agree with this, maybe he tries using the Ace of hearts as a bluff card to get us to fold a pair like QQ, which would be pretty terrible on his part. Therefore I like the smaller bet sizing.

You don't have to give us reads you find out after the fact. Try and let us play the hand as you did.

sorry about that, i was typing it up at like 2am, so i wasnt completely thinking clearly

are you saying i should have checked? or just a check would have been an optimal play in this specific circumstance considering the outcome of a fold and his stating he had a pair?

i can see him not having QQ, my range of 10-QQ was my ranging at the time for pairs. its obviously up for debate.

in reality, he could have had something as stupid as KJo with no heart and he was just posturing to save face. maybe hoping i check turn behind and he could fire a river bluff or something. who knows...

Is getting value from KhKx, QhQx, JhJx, A2, A3, A5 a good enough reason?

If you check, you will miss out on a lot of value. Just make a small bet since this card sucks for his range. If he's the type of player to call 3-bets light, he's probably the type of player to continue calling with a lot of his pairs.

The fact that this card sucks for him means that he'll likely only shove a flush so you can fold pretty easily to that.

Obviously.

Well, at least it's an argument based on a logic that isn't wrong at a really basic level.