Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
You can't play 60/120-100/200 at Commerce? Or that's what you mean by grinding?
Couple things about that. First of all in today's climate it is VERY rare for both of those games to be running. If a 1/2 is going they pretty much won't start a 60 and often times vice-versa. So a lot of the time you're talking about one table max. Yes sometimes a 2/4 goes, or even a 3/6 or whatever, but those games are often mix anyway and....
The rub about these big games nowadays is that unless you're there when it starts (meaning for the 60 whenever it goes or the 1/2 or 2/4 whenever the guy walks in) you pretty much only ever get offered ****ty seats. I mean sure sometimes you can find yourself in a super good spot (like the 1/2 I walked into two weeks ago) but that often requires herculean effort (I arrived at commerce at 5:15am during the WSOP) and is very hard to do. I'm not super familiar with what goes down on a day to day basis anymore, but I do know players who have struggled mightily to even take a shot at the 60 because they just never ever get into a good game.
The best LHE players I know (I can think of three specifically) that log a reasonable number of hours at commerce play 40 all the time. They do that because the 40 always runs and sometimes it can take hours or an entire weekend to get into a good game any bigger. So you really can't just grind the 60 or 1/2 2000 hours (or even close to that per year). You can get into games, but....
If you sit in **** games your WR is going to be low, and in the bigger more aggro games the variance goes up to. If you're winning .75 bets at 40 with a StDev of 12 (times 80) does it really make sense to play in a 1/2 where you win .4 bet ($20 more per hour) but have a standard of 14 (times 200). Absolutely not, unless you have so much money you don't need to be playing. And without the mother's milk cotton candy soft games (where you're winning 1.5 or 2 or 2.5 bets without even trying because the games are so good) it's really really hard to overcome. On top of this if you play 2000 hours a year (and really I know just two humans named Jon Locke and MikeL who do that consistently and I'm not even sure about mikey an more) but are all over the place in stakes (taking white chip shots but also grinding 40) your results are gonna get dominated by what happens in the biggest (toughest) games and your bankroll requirements (or cash reserves and intestinal fortitude) just have to be off the charts.
The most successful primarily LHE player I know has been a prop non-stop for like six years. When you're a prop you don't just eat what you kill; what you kill is only dessert. I got paid a boat load of money to just destroy that bike 40 game (my results are preposterous; in 1600 of my 8600 or so career hours I made 40% of my winnings). The days of just kicking ass all the way up are gone. The 60...sure, it's often soft enough that you don't have to be a genius to beat it. But to consistently play 1/2 and above and win (crush even) you have to be a stud. You have to think about poker in a way that afaik nobody who posts in this forum on a regular basis (myself, babar, doug, captain r, everybody except Jon Locke) does. You can't just play 40/80 and win 250k a year anymore like betty did apparently. You'll be super lucky to make 100, and your results won't improve that much (on average) if you try to move up.