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SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta)

05-30-2008 , 01:06 PM
Juk when you have time please reply to my question in the page before.... thanks a lot!
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05-31-2008 , 04:23 AM
Guys, I started this threat once upon a time and suddenly disappeared. I guess I owe you an explanation:

The story I have to tell is so crazy but I guess that is how live goes...

My sister who is living in my house with her family was practicing this fancy "Dirty Dancing" move with a friend. They fell so unluckily that she suffered a total paraplegic. Somehow, after a couple of operations and a lot of titan implants they managed to make her walk again. She is still in rehabilitation but it looks like she will regain moveability of about 70% - which is fantastic and totally against the odds as experience has shown.

However, I suddenly became kinda responsible for two children (6 + 4 years), two cats, one dog, a garden with like one million plants and all this, while beeing a happy single all the years before.

Besides I'm also running my every-day job. So you might be able to imagine that I didnt even THINK about poker the last couple of months. I haven't played a hand since two weaks ago nor thought about the Luck Analyzer project at all.

Things are getting in line again. We are very happy about the result after the first diagnostics. I am even playing poker once in while again but I'm still pretty involved and do not have the time to contribute to this project for the comming weeks / months.

Happy to see that this thing is still active and a big big thanks to Juk for his brillant contributions. Sorry for not posting earlier nor answering any of the emails you sent - but all this stuff was just wiped out of my life.

Keep it going!

So long,
Bodypull
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
05-31-2008 , 07:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bodypull
all this stuff was just wiped out of my life.
Sorry to hear of your family's misfortune. Would you consider simply posting the source code for your app to allow others to continue the efforts?
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05-31-2008 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vanky
I indeed have a Dutch Windows, but my time and date settings are English (US). When I played on Stars, that was the only thing i should change. Now I have to change my whole OS?
As k4b4l mentions below, you shouldn't have to change your OS if you use the updated FT script (somebody linked it a few posts above).

The one that's in the current RAR file is based on dave_w11's original Stars script which didn't work with non-English days and this would explain nearly all the "Could not find day of the week" parser errors.

Juk
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05-31-2008 , 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chilin_dude
Is there anyway that this could be used with betfair? A hand history convertor or anything?
Only if somebody writes a converter for it, but if I eventually make it so that it gets the data from a trackers DB this won't matter (ie: I can use their parsers then to do the hard work).

Quote:
Also have you spoken to either the Holdem manager guys, or the poker tracker guys about getting them to add this to their software? Would be awesome imo.
They are already adding cash-game cEV luck graphs so most likely they'll add $EV graphs for SNGs eventually. It's a bit harder to do for SNGs (using the ICM model) because you can't just deal with a player's "average equity" - you have to look at every possible "hand outcome" separately.

Juk
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05-31-2008 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebellz
Hi Juk, i have a question. I probably do something wrong because i can't confirm what your program says.

I analyzed ~4200 SNG and this is the graph:


I actually never ran that bad, i don't have a -6k downswing and then i just wanted to know how this is possible. I think that i probably did some mistake with the batch, so if you can take a look... i'm using this:

@echo off

echo Converting FTP hands to Party hands.
mkdir TempConvertedStarsHands 2> NUL
del /Q .\TempConvertedStarsHands\*.txt 2> NUL
ftpconverter.exe .\TempConvertedStarsHands .

echo Running on all 9-man FTP hands found in the TempConvertedStarsHands folder...

rem For Turbo 6s we pay 12.1212121212% of the final prize-pool as our entry fee.
BackTestAllInLuck.exe 12.12121212 50 30 20 TempConvertedStarsHands

pause


The hands i analyzed are 11+1 22+2 and 33+3 so the batch should work for everyone of them right?

Thanks for your help
If the "actual" value has gone out badly, then something must have seriously gone wrong as the code to do that is very simple. I've run thousands of Party SNGs and so far it's been spot on with my PT (ignoring the ones where Party crashed and I lost the hand ends...). Are other FT people getting the same problem? Assuming the "entry fee percentage" is correct (ie: are "FT Turbo 6s" raked the same as 11+1 22+2 and 33+3?) then it's probably something that's gone wrong with the converter. Possibly alot of final hands might be missing from the "FT won't write a HH until the hand is over" problem.

Juk
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05-31-2008 , 10:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Staafy
I understand it now, I figured what you meant by
entry fee %= rake/total buyin, but
entry fee%= total buyin/total prizepool

thnx!
I agree it's not ideal, but since the Party amounts are written as $33 (rather than $30+3) it's the only way I could think of getting the value at the time. I just chose the "entry fee percentage" off the top of my head (never expecting anybody but me to have to calculate it...). I'll see if I can see a less confusing way of asking for the same value soon, as it is possible to deduce the number of players from the first hand, etc.

Juk
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
05-31-2008 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bodypull
Guys, I started this threat once upon a time and suddenly disappeared. I guess I owe you an explanation:

The story I have to tell is so crazy but I guess that is how live goes...

My sister who is living in my house with her family was practicing this fancy "Dirty Dancing" move with a friend. They fell so unluckily that she suffered a total paraplegic. Somehow, after a couple of operations and a lot of titan implants they managed to make her walk again. She is still in rehabilitation but it looks like she will regain moveability of about 70% - which is fantastic and totally against the odds as experience has shown.

However, I suddenly became kinda responsible for two children (6 + 4 years), two cats, one dog, a garden with like one million plants and all this, while beeing a happy single all the years before.

Besides I'm also running my every-day job. So you might be able to imagine that I didnt even THINK about poker the last couple of months. I haven't played a hand since two weaks ago nor thought about the Luck Analyzer project at all.

Things are getting in line again. We are very happy about the result after the first diagnostics. I am even playing poker once in while again but I'm still pretty involved and do not have the time to contribute to this project for the comming weeks / months.

Happy to see that this thing is still active and a big big thanks to Juk for his brillant contributions. Sorry for not posting earlier nor answering any of the emails you sent - but all this stuff was just wiped out of my life.
Sorry to hear about this - hope things work out OK.

Juk
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05-31-2008 , 10:31 AM
Is there a website (with a FAQ section) for this software?
That should make it so much simpler for people who aren't used to the software to get an idea of what it does, for whom and how.
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05-31-2008 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jukofyork
Only if somebody writes a converter for it, but if I eventually make it so that it gets the data from a trackers DB this won't matter (ie: I can use their parsers then to do the hard work).

Juk
Sounds so so good.
Please HEM first!
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06-01-2008 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
Is there a website (with a FAQ section) for this software?
That should make it so much simpler for people who aren't used to the software to get an idea of what it does, for whom and how.
There's nothing like this atm I'm afraid. It's not that hard to use though as you just have to copy your HH files into the same folder and then run a batch file (assuming one of the batch files is for your limit). Hopefully it'll turn into something better in the end, but atm I've just not time to do much to it.

Juk
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06-02-2008 , 08:16 AM
Can anybody who is getting this error (meridio posted about it): "SetAmountWon() failed for TURN... Skipping to next hand.]" post the converted hand history.

Juk
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06-02-2008 , 09:15 AM
It works perfectly for me now (on FT).
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-02-2008 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bodypull
Guys, I started this threat once upon a time and suddenly disappeared. I guess I owe you an explanation:

The story I have to tell is so crazy but I guess that is how live goes...
Best wishes for your sister and good luck to you, the two children, and the cats/dog/plants.
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06-02-2008 , 07:36 PM
Hi,

Can someone post the update which fix the "day of the week" problem for FT ?

Thanks
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06-05-2008 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matthaz
Hi,

Can someone post the update which fix the "day of the week" problem for FT ?

Thanks
Make sure your operating system is set to English (USA) in the regional settings.

Juk,

I had a chance to test your latest release with the FT converter - excellent job.

However, I analyzed a couple of hundred $3.50+$0.30 SnGs and get very different results dependig on the command line percentage (for the fee) which seems odd.


BackTestAllInLuck.exe 12.03703704 50 30 20


BackTestAllInLuck.exe 8.57142857 50 30 20


BackTestAllInLuck.exe 25.0 50 30 20


Do you think this is an issue of the converter?

BTW: at FT if the small blind gets eliminated, there wont be a small blind the next hand. That does not apply for the big blind. I'm not sure how Party handles this.
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-05-2008 , 08:04 PM
Uh i tried to analyze the new superturbo sngs at full tilt but i get this error.
Is there something i can do or they are different and can't be analyzed?

SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-05-2008 , 08:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bodypull
However, I analyzed a couple of hundred $3.50+$0.30 SnGs and get very different results dependig on the command line percentage (for the fee) which seems odd.
I think this is fairly normal as I work everything out in terms of "% of prize pool" and then multiply by BuyIn/EntryFeePercentage to convert back to real $s, so an incorrect "EntryFeePercentage" will cause the sum of prizes to go way out thus causing the ROI to go way out too.

Quote:
Do you think this is an issue of the converter?
Yep, I think the FT client not saving hands until after they are complete is likely causing alot more problems for the FT converter than the Stars converter and it might turn out that the hands that it's missing are some of the most significant.

Quote:
BTW: at FT if the small blind gets eliminated, there wont be a small blind the next hand. That does not apply for the big blind. I'm not sure how Party handles this.
Yep, Party does this too. If the BB goes out then the next hand will have a "dead SB". My parser does detect this by the line that Party writes to tell you this, but not sure if the converters convert these 100%.

Juk
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-06-2008 , 12:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebellz
Uh i tried to analyze the new superturbo sngs at full tilt but i get this error.
Is there something i can do or they are different and can't be analyzed?

You got to search & replace e.g.
"$3.50+$0.30 Sit&Go (Sup Turbo)" with
"$3.50 + $0.30 Sit & Go (Turbo)"
within all the text files.

Might wanna use this http://www.searchreplacetext.com/

Yuk,

I mean, have you noticed the HUGE difference? Setting a rake of 12% turns out 6.7% ROI and setting a rake of the actual 8.6% turns out an ROI of 49%. Can this be true?

Do you also get this huge gap when processing original Party files if you change the rake by 3-4%?

Last edited by Bodypull; 06-06-2008 at 12:40 AM.
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06-06-2008 , 02:00 AM
When I start the program I get a pop up saying this version has timed out. I have tried uninstalling and reinstalling and made sure I had the newest version. Any ideas?
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-06-2008 , 02:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevielarson
When I start the program I get a pop up saying this version has timed out. I have tried uninstalling and reinstalling and made sure I had the newest version. Any ideas?
NVM Figured it out. Need new program.
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-06-2008 , 06:10 AM
I started to play SNGs on Everest. How could I use the juk's script ?
Any converter ?
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-06-2008 , 09:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bodypull
You got to search & replace e.g.
"$3.50+$0.30 Sit&Go (Sup Turbo)" with
"$3.50 + $0.30 Sit & Go (Turbo)"
within all the text files.

Might wanna use this http://www.searchreplacetext.com/

Yuk,

I mean, have you noticed the HUGE difference? Setting a rake of 12% turns out 6.7% ROI and setting a rake of the actual 8.6% turns out an ROI of 49%. Can this be true?

Do you also get this huge gap when processing original Party files if you change the rake by 3-4%?
The formula used for calculating the ROI is this:

ROI=(Prize%*(BuyIn/EntryFeePercentage)-BuyIn)/BuyIn

So if you come 3rd in a $11 SNG this is how an incorrect EntryFeePercentage will effect things for that one game:

ROI=(20*(11/11)-11)/11=~0.81=81%
ROI=(20*(11/8.6)-11)/11=~1.33=133%
ROI=(20*(11/12)-11)/11=~0.67=67%


Juk
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-06-2008 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bodypull
You got to search & replace e.g.
"$3.50+$0.30 Sit&Go (Sup Turbo)" with
"$3.50 + $0.30 Sit & Go (Turbo)"
within all the text files.

Might wanna use this http://www.searchreplacetext.com/
Thx a lot
SnG Luck Analyzer (Beta) Quote
06-06-2008 , 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jukofyork
The formula used for calculating the ROI is this:

ROI=(Prize%*(BuyIn/EntryFeePercentage)-BuyIn)/BuyIn

So if you come 3rd in a $11 SNG this is how an incorrect EntryFeePercentage will effect things for that one game:

ROI=(20*(11/11)-11)/11=~0.81=81%
ROI=(20*(11/8.6)-11)/11=~1.33=133%
ROI=(20*(11/12)-11)/11=~0.67=67%

Juk
I have a hard time to believe that this formula is correct. Doesn't all analysis software calculate ROI simply by NetProfit/TotalInvestment? E.g. Pokertracker does it that way...

For third place:
ROI = (0.2*PrizePool-BuyIn-Rake)/(BuyIn+Rake)

In that case I would end up with (10-player $11 SnG):

11% rake: 60.2% 3rd-place-ROI
8.6% rake: 64.5% 3rd-place-ROI
12% rake: 58.4% 3rd-place-ROI

I just realized that you algorithm propably takes the rake as a percentage of the total buy-in (like Party). In that case the rake for the 3.50+0.30 is only 7.9% which would lead to a 3rd-place-ROI of 65.8% - but that still doesn't explain this huge difference.
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