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Survivor Cagayan - S28 - Brains vs. Beauty vs Brawn Survivor Cagayan - S28 - Brains vs. Beauty vs Brawn

05-01-2014 , 09:06 AM
Spencer is way more likely to win a F4 challenge than Jefra though. I still don't feel strongly either way about his move last night, but it was good tv.
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05-01-2014 , 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by 27offsuit
A: Tony will never win because of the simple fact that his social game sucks.

B: Tony's ego wouldn't let him not play the idol even though there was probably a <.25% chance he gets blindsided last night. Going home with 2 idols in his pocket would have made him look too foolish and cop-mentality Tony ain't into looking foolish.

Those are the two things I took away from last night.
Except he can't go home with two idols in his pocket since he can always play one after the votes are read.
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05-01-2014 , 09:25 AM
Okay so Tony didn't play an idol right? I was confused about that a little bit especially when someone else in this thread got the impression that he used it.
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05-01-2014 , 09:26 AM
Tony definitely did not play the idol.
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05-01-2014 , 09:49 AM
It's hilarious that none of the three brains have yet to voted off. Final 3? lol
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05-01-2014 , 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by MarsMuzak
But he didn't play the idol? He simply took it out and put it on. Not at all the same as playing it (giving it to Jeff).
haha wow missed that. thought when he put it on that's that, but was kind of half-watching.

still no chance. people will find a reason to vote for anyone else. he will probably blow it at final tribal too. he just can't help himself withe the chest-thumping.
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05-01-2014 , 10:21 AM
Tony probably doesn't have a case for one of the best players ever to play, particularly since he may not even make the finals, but he has definitely climbed into my top three of most entertaining players ever to play. He has owned this season from a tv viewing perspective.

I am also rooting hard for Kass to make the finals. Watching her get scorched by the jury>>>>>>having to listen to the inevitable nonsense she would spew at the finals from a jury spot with that smug smirk on her face the whole time.
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05-01-2014 , 10:48 AM
Yeah I'd put his performance up there with Russell's Samoa game in the respect that you actually want to make people who don't watch the show tune in because this guy is so epic.
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05-01-2014 , 10:52 AM
i think he has a good chance to win'

i mean are people going to vote woo?

i think even jeffra may vote him to win against kass and woo
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05-01-2014 , 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by MarsMuzak
Tony probably doesn't have a case for one of the best players ever to play, particularly since he may not even make the finals, but he has definitely climbed into my top three of most entertaining players ever to play. He has owned this season from a tv viewing perspective.
Tony is easily a much better player than Russell who many posters here called GOAT for a couple years

Last edited by Banana man; 05-01-2014 at 11:24 AM.
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05-01-2014 , 11:18 AM
How could tony not have a chance to win? He's controlled and manipulated the entire game? Also, he's basically guaranteed a spot in the final four.

Sure, some people will be mad that he back stabbed them, but you still have to respect and acknowledge his dominance throughout the entire season.

And who has a chance against him in a final 3? The only real threat is spencer at this point. Spencer has played a very good game and is definitely well spoken and could easily gain votes because of that.

Don't get me wrong, I think voting out Jefra right now was terribly dumb, but tony still stands the best chance to win this season.
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05-01-2014 , 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by benjamin barker
i don't at all agree tony has no chance at F3

sarah could revert to her blue blood cop roots

morgan isn't a girl who is afraid to piss people off i don't think tony's moves bother her

arguments/explanations could be made for all of them but bottom line if its tony/trish/kass or tony/woo/kass no one likes kass and trish/woo could be viewed as tony's sidekick and tony comes out on top
Even tho Woo is going to be viewed as the sidekick, he's very likable and might be able to get votes as a result. I do think he is more of a follower and is perceived as such. Not sure how Trish is perceived, but she can definitely make a compelling case for herself. The alliance falls apart if not for her. She has relationships with people. She's publicly told Tony to chill out on numerous occasions. She's going to have to sell her game, but if she can do that, she can win.

Girl's like Morgan like to be the ones doing the pissing off, they don't like being on the other end of it. Tony needs to not reiterate how undeserving and worthless he thinks she was in front of her just in case no one has mentioned it already.
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05-01-2014 , 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
i think he has a good chance to win'

i mean are people going to vote woo?
Nathalie says hi.
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05-01-2014 , 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by dankhank
Without reading thread or thinking about it too much, this seems like the first real mistake Tony made. It has to be dumb to eliminate a non-FTC threat ahead of someone who can win when you have two idols in your pocket. Also Spencer is not any more loyal to Tony than Jefra is, they just talk to each other more.
Tony needs to be able to win F4 immunity and have people on the jury who might vote for him in the end. I agree this decision has to be dumb.

On the other hand, yay Spencer.
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05-01-2014 , 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by wontoo
Kim is queen but an argument in Tony's favor is that he's had much tougher competition.
An argument in Kim's favor is that her personality is such that people aren't thrilled about the idea of voting her off to their own detriment. AND they are pretty happy to see her win a million dollars.

Tony playing with a handicap maybe another argument in his favor.
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05-01-2014 , 12:35 PM
Normally, I'm in the camp of big jury threats being willing to keep around other big jury threats in order to insulate themselves from being perceived as the biggest jury threat. Having other credible targets is a good thing. In this case, not so much. It's a better fit for someone who is a charismatic person. Not as good for someone who is a bulldozer with two immunity idols in his pocket and a bad track record against the field in the individual immunity challenges. The irony of keeping someone as an alternative 'we should vote this person out instead of me' when that person (along with two others) seems to be wildly more likely to win immunity than yourself is pretty rich.

I could sort of get behind the idea of keeping Spencer because he needs to get rid of Tasha so badly and Spencer might be able to win an immunity vs. her. But it's still pretty bad. Spencer will fight and claw to stay in the game. He will look for idols. He will play any angle. He is an immunity threat. And then, there is Jefra. (Also, I think Spencer is a good plant for Tony on the jury, while Jefra is not.)
___

If it's F2 instead of F3, can you play the idols through the F4 vote? Do the contestants know ahead of time which it will be?
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05-01-2014 , 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Bostongrinder
How could tony not have a chance to win? He's controlled and manipulated the entire game? People might hate him for that. Also, he's basically guaranteed a spot in the final four. With a huge self-made target on himself at F4.

Sure, some people will be mad that he back stabbed them, but you still have to respect and acknowledge his dominance throughout the entire season.
Not really. The jury can disrepect and and not acknowledge as they see fit. If they don't like Tony, he could lose without getting a single vote.

And who has a chance against him in a final 3? The only real threat is spencer at this point. Spencer has played a very good game and is definitely well spoken and could easily gain votes because of that.
Tasha and Spencer easily beat him. Trish and Woo possibly/probably beat him.

Don't get me wrong, I think voting out Jefra right now was terribly dumb, but tony still stands the best chance to win this season.
Tony's win equity is between 10 - 15% imo.
.
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05-01-2014 , 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Cardfish1
.
Prop bet that if tony and Sasha are In final 3 that tony wins?

Clearly said spencer was a threat.
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05-01-2014 , 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Clovis8
Lol tony is the king of FPS. Gonna be so funny if he doesn't even make final after being fed 3 idols.

Tony is surely entertaining but not good at survivor IMO.
If he can get to F3 with Woo and Trish, how can he not win?

(oh yah, I keep forgetting the other seasons where people don't vote on gameplay but how much they like you)
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05-01-2014 , 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Bostongrinder
Prop bet that if tony and Sasha are In final 3 that tony wins?

Clearly said spencer was a threat.
Highly unlikely they make finals together but I'm open for a bet.
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05-01-2014 , 01:49 PM
i'm surprised that you guys think tony will have a hard time getting jury votes. i see tony beating anyone if he makes it to final tribal.
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05-01-2014 , 01:52 PM
Have you seen Sarah's facial expressions at tribal council? She does not like Tony and I doubt she is alone.





I guess it could be creative editing
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05-01-2014 , 02:18 PM
sarah def has a problem with tony and he probably won't get her vote. LJ and morgan probably don't want to vote tony either.

but he has a good chance(or is even a favorite) to get every other vote from all the other players. everyone agrees he has played his ass off. and he is not hated like russell was. he has as much WIM(want it more) as anyone i've seen on survivor(i've seen maybe half the seasons)
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05-01-2014 , 02:28 PM
Tony GOAT entertainment value

Shame to see Jeffra go after I noticed how ridiculously hot she was.
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05-01-2014 , 02:38 PM
How can you not root for Tony? Tony will go down in the Pantheon of all time Survivor greats!

Also, voting out Jeffra over Spencer might not have been the best play, but it's hard to argue that it's a bad play.
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