No idol season wouldn't be that great imo. Idol paranoia leads to some great drama and blindsides. Just get rid of the dumb Yul idol and everything is fine.

Three pairs left in the game and i can any two pairs possibly aligning.

Good point. Maybe just not 20 idols per season.

Alright here is why I think it is a good move or at least not terrible.

Where are Trish and Kass going to flip to now that their beautiful goat is gone? They are forced into a situation where they will have either Tony, Woo, Tasha or Spencer sitting next to them at FTC. Their best shot is to sit next to Woo but they can't vote out Tony because of idols. Therefore they can't flip over to Tasha and Spencer because the only person left to vote is Woo. Their best move is to now just suck it up and stick with Tony and Woo, get to the final 4 with them and then try and vote out Tony. Which is great for Tony because his best bud Woo may actually let it go to a fire making challenge. Alternatively they may think that Tony has played too hard and pissed too many people off.

In comparison to what happens next time if he keeps Jefra. Being down 4-2 in gender numbers is legit bad especially when Jefra, Trish and Kass should all be thinking about trying to make that their final 3. If Tasha wins immunity then the alliance breaks down anyway and anything could happen in that chaos. Whereas taking the initiative this time should allow Tony to reasonably predict everyone elses next move.

This could be one of the greatets seasons ever with the most anti-climactic finale ever if Tony or Spencer don't win

They don't know he has two idols. Just one. One they know about which is not very scary at all.

He has two idols and only two tribal councils left to use them I'm pretty sure.

You think Tony thought all of this?

Does it matter?

The move is the move.

Edit: I can't count to 5!

How the hell is that obvious?

Why would Trish get to the final 5 and decide she has a better chance with Tony and Woo when she has a super high chance of winning against Jefra and Kass?

And why would you not vote for Tasha over Spencer next round considering she has won 3 challenges in a row.

I've been pretty tough on CBS casting the last few Survivor and BB seasons, but I think this may be the best first-timer cast ever.

If they make FTC, who wins?

As I see it:

1. Tasha - can beat anyone
2. Spencer - beats anyone but Tasha
3. Trish - little to no blood on her hands
4. Woo - likeable but just a lackey
5. Tony - pissed off too many people
6. Kass - lol

I think Tony would do well if he makes the FTC vs. someone not named Tasha or Spencer. I'd have him at #3 equity amongst people who make FTC. I also think I'd put Woo over Trish, but it's close.

Dark horse to win right now is Tasha. She has a real shot now imo

Tony gonna Russell this season?

My initial reaction is that this is actually a smart play for Tony.

He's already played hard and fast, enough so that he can't plausibly sell that he's doing it to advance his alliance. If he wants a safe route to the end, he needs to avoid the obvious Trish-Kass-Jefra trio from coming together at F5 and will have to vote out one of those women at F6 anyway; it's not like he can rely on winning challenges.

Tony is completely safe until the idols expire, and probably completely unsafe after that; he has this narrow window where he gets to essentially handpick who his opponents are going to be when he's under the gun again at the very end. He's also in the precarious position where maybe only Woo will be loyal to him (though that's partially a situation of his own making), and the women know/want to boot Tony anyway. Tony can easily make it to F4 as the biggest jury threat or make it to FTC as a goat, but to reach FTC as a jury threat he needs to lock in his goats and force them to take him.

You can argue he burned jury votes by doing this, but Kass and Jefra were never voting for him anyway and he seems to want Trish in his F3 (Jefra is a much better candidate for that, but w/e). This move might recoup some goodwill with Spencer and Tasha (and, by extension, Jeremiah), and it also casts his previous betrayals in a new light: when he backstabs LJ, it's easy for LJ to take it personally; when he backstabs everyone, it looks less like a personal attack and more like a focused tactical manoeuvre.

That said, Tony is looking more and more set up for the Russell treatment.

Thing is, I think Tony is more self aware than Russell. I don't think he will make the same FTC blunders that Russell did.

He wouldn't want to be against a strategic and challenge beast like Jefra! Maybe it was a good move.

If so, Woo is his Natalie.

Well I now think Tony is in a position where the final 4 will undoubtedly include Tony, Kass and Trish. No one left is a bad person for that last spot in the final 4. Tasha and Spencer are bigger jury threats and will need to win immunity. And having Woo there is probably even better because I can't see him voting Tony out.

Compared to a final 4 where Tony likely has to win immunity to get in there.

So looking back to early season editing, is it really possible this ends up as Spence/Kass/Tasha?

Would that make this the worst played post-merge season by an alliance ever?

And isn't this 100x better if you swap out Trish for Jefra? I get what you guys are going for here, but if you want to chop off a member of your own alliance, shouldn't you be doing it with someone who has a non-zero shot to beat you at FTC (Trish) vs. someone who never beats anyone (Jefra)?

FWIW, I think Spencer is an auto-boot here, but I at least see the logic for a Trish boot. Jefra, on the other hand, makes no sense to me at all, and I think it's arguably the worst boot you can make...even moreso than Kass.

100% agree.

My counter argument would be that Jefra is more likely to do something that isn't in her best interest and might choose to go with Tasha or Spencer over Tony at the final 4. But I do agree that he has more equity at the final tribal if you replace Trish with Jefra.

I actually think there is a high chance that Trish will beat Tony and that Tony's best shot is to be there with Woo and Kass.

Is there any chance that we are heading towards a final 2?

The finale is on May 21 which means that there will only be 4 people left in the game. Couple that with the jury starting at 11 which would mean either a jury of 8 or a final 2 and a jury of 9.