spencer jerimah tony woo trish tasha

tony knows he needs to bring along trish. maybe jeffra too. i think tony pushes hard for either tasha or kass to go next

Great episode, tony really is delivering. I like Tony's play irregardless if he happens to be booted next episode. For I can't imagine LJ letting him survive 7. Also from entertainment perspective prevented the pagong

Few various thoughts:

F7 leaves LJ/Jefra with the options of the last orange member, Kass and Trish - of which they need 2 to gain the majority (unless you have massive amount of beliefs that LJ won't take this line, which would be a massive mistake on his part). That's super risky for Tony. I've tended to believe Trish would side with LJ over Tony based on what I've seen. gman confirms Trish is closer to LJ than Tony. I also think that spot would be more advantageous for Kass (and maybe the last of Jer/Spe/Tash) but certainly Kass to side with LJ.

Flipping at F9 opens a bit of Pandora's box though. I'm not really sure what happens here (which is awesome from a viewing perspective imo). We've got Spencer-Tasha-Jeremiah as one obvious alliance. We have Tony-Woo as another. And then??? Will Trish stick with Tony after that move? Kass has indiciated she considers herself a FA. Jefra's only ties as we could tell were to LJ. I'm really not sure what we'll see.

As a few have mentioned, I think flipping at F8 was probably best. Look to take advantage of a split vote opportunity and pounce with the 2 last oranges, Tony, and Woo to seize control. I'd have to think a little more about the consequences of that action in terms of where that leaves you in the game, though. At first thought though, this seems like the best option.

Curious how Spencer didn't play his idol there. At least based on what we saw, I'd be very suspicious. Tony's line about LJ targeting Woo makes little sense. If LJ were targeting Woo, I think it'd be very likely that he'd approach those in the minority in order to make this plan happen (although he could technically make it happen if his entire alliance minus Woo was on board without having to approach the minority). Therefore, I'd be suspicious that the reason Tony is putting this plan out there is to try to make us feel safe enough to not play the HII if one of Spencer or Jeremiah had it.

What's Tony's play from here? Is he planning on sticking with Jer/Tash/Spe? Or was this a one vote move and he thinks he can re-link with Jef/Kas/Trish? I would speculate it's the latter, and I wonder how large/small the chances are that Jef/Kas/Trish wouldn't be cool with that.

It would make sense for those four to band together and try to vote Tony out, then pick off Tasha, Jeremiah, and Spencer in some order. The only chance any of them have with a jury is to be up against another individual from that group. But here is how I imagine that going down:

Trish (to Kass): "Tony is controlling this game and is the biggest remaining threat. Neither of us would do well against him with a jury. We need to make a move to blindside him to help ourselves"

Kass (in a confessional): "I don't like being told what to do. If you try to bully me, I won't stand for it!"

screenshot of Kass's dumb smirk as Jeff unfolds a paper with Trish's name and says, "the fourth member of the jury..."

Alright I think you need to organize your thoughts more because I'm not quite sure I understand what you're trying to communicate.

I mean wasn't Jefra in a 5 person alliance with Tony that included her former beauty ally LJ? Backstabbing him while leaving her out on the vote surely isn't gaining favor. Although I would argue booting LJ was in everyone's best interest.

According to the edit Tony is shown spear-heading the Morgan boot in that group discussion over Tasha. Last week a bunch of us here said booting Morgan was in the best interests of Tony, LJ, and Woo.

I'm not sure where this discussion of Sarah or jury votes is coming from. My post didn't touch on anything about that.

The reason why I disagree with this is because I think Trish would be much more open to backstabbing someone at F8 when it is 6 vs 2. She is smart enough to know there is only a small window of opportunity.

I don't understand people who think Tony is a goat. He's clearly far more liked than Russell ever was.

I am going to look dumb in a few weeks when done quotes this but... Tony is never winning this. I think he is near the bottom in terms of equity at this point.

+1 to this and to what Garrett posted regarding Spencer's gameplay this episode.

Although I will say in Spencer's defense that he probably isn't privy to the inner workings of that alliance and their conversations, so in his mind he probably thought he didn't have any other options for this vote. He also wasn't aware of their dynamic after the swap.

Saving his idol guarantees him a spot in the F7 which should open up a lot more opportunities. That's what I would think.

You need to re-read Gman's post. First, he's basing his opinions based on the same things we've seen - no insider information so no ability to confirm anything. Second, he says this:

Tony and Trish are likely much closer than Trish and LJ were. If Trish and LJ were closer, she would have told him of Tony's plan - she didn't.

Ah good call, I did misread that!

If Woo/Tony/Trish seem like an obvious F3 to everybody in the game, it seems like it'd be very obvious for the other 4 to team up at F7. And then at F5, it'd be very obvious to break up the LJ/Jefra pair. A pagonging down to 7 would've left Kass & last remaining of Jer/Spe/Tash in a pretty darn good spot had it happened if those alliances are that obvious.

meh, it's dumb now imo. The field is a favorite over Tony obviously so plenty of the time you will look 'vindicated' for this read, but regardless of outcome saying Tony is at the bottom is just crazy talk.

If tasha tony or Spencer end up winning would be such a great season imo.

I think tasha has played the best all game but Spencer may make a bigger splash when he inevitably blindsides tony with his idol so jury may vote Spencer.

They both actually play the game and would love to see either brought back for a future season.

Wouldn't mind seeing any of

Tony
Sarah
Tasha
Spencer

In a future season. Entertaining players who play hard(albeit not always smart). Kass plays hard too but I just don't find her very entertaining and she isn't fun to root against like some villains she is just annoying to watch.

He's had a good edit, but not nearly as "heroic" as some past winners. He's kind of a cypher, in terms of personality and strategy. The idol find right behind Kass's back was a nice moment, but right before that, Woo had a much cooler edit during the Sonic the Hedgehog sequence.

Can we all agree he needs to pull off at least *one* move before we anoint him?

Anoint him what? Nobody thinks he's an incredible player or anything.

He reminds me a lot of Aras at this point. Good social game and understands the strategic side, but he's too passive to be great.

I think Tasha's problem is that she's never seemed to have close bonds with anybody out there since maybe J'tia. It looked like Spencer was closer to Sarah and Morgan. Plus last night he was calling Jeremiah his right hand. When Tony was making this plan last episode all the talk was with Spencer and Tasha was a complete afterthought. Iirc he was telling Spencer to lock down Jeremiah and Spencer was like "Uh shouldn't we tell Tasha as well?"

Don't forget just a couple days left (until Sunday morning) to get your nominations in for the "HOTTEST OF ALL TIIIIIME". I don't want to hear any whining about fixes or anything (Kos) from anyone who didn't bother to nominate anyone or second someone else's noms. Seeding will be done based on number of unique supportive mentions itt:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...lease-1434407/

Here's the nominations so far.

Parvati Shallow
Chelsea Meissner
Andrea Boehlke
Heidi Hamels
Sydney Wheeler
Amanda Kimmel
Angie Layton
Morgan
Brenda
Kim Spradlin
Natalie Tenerelli
Ashley Underwood

Mentions awaiting additional pics:

Candice Cody ( must be at least two on island/in game pics - I'm not doing your work for you)

Aras' equity as an unknown in a season full of randoms is great.

Well, sure, but he hasn't really been in a position to do anything big yet. He can't make too big a play from the minority position. Too easy for the group with the numbers to see that and 86 him.

What he has done is put himself in position to get lucky. Tony sought him out for a reason and he was smart enough to take what came his way. Now with a bit of chaos in the camp, he's better positioned to make a move.

I don't think we can discount him for not doing anything yet. IMO, he's just been playing smart.

How do we know he is passive? He has been in a minority since day one. You can't ever be aggressive from that position.

People itt confuse "big moves" with good moves far too often.

People itt also underestimate the importance of social stature and manipulation, which Spencer has shown himself to be only average at (not having a relationship with Kass when she went with the girls, not controlling Kass when they had the numbers, consistently being a follower and not a leader).

He sat back while Garrett shot himself in the foot. He didn't even realize Kass was considering flipping. Nearly everytime we've seen him strategizing its the other person coming to him. I just think he spends too much time sitting back and seeing whats going to happen instead of trying to take the game into his own hands

+1

I think this is definitely true of 31-year-old Aras and much less obviously true of 24-year-old Aras.

Tyson surprised me last season, so I'm not so sure on this, but despite starting to like tony, I just really can't see him winning.

I think he def has good instincts and he executes pretty well, but I'm not sure he has the natural social ability and/or self awareness to play so aggressively all game.

Not only this, but since having the idol he's had a few chances to use it as leverage and didn't. Granted there is risk in exposing that you have it, but based on confessionals it doesn't seem that he's even considered how it can help him in the game, other than to save himself.

My sense is his game is to wait until he can make a move, but I also don't think he has the relationships required to do so. As much as I like the guy, I don't think he really has a lot of equity at this point, but he has gotten a positive edit, so who knows.