I don't understand why anyone thinks Spencer beats Tasha in FTC. I mean, he's not this great mastermind. His greatest achievement is winning immunity. There's nothing else on his "resume." Tasha has been more active and also won an immunity. Both of them keep getting lucky tbh. Lol @ Spencer clearly winning at this point. BASED ON WHAT.

Everything I comment on below is based purely on what we've all seen on tv:

Contrary to some mistakes he made earlier in the game, I liked almost everything Tony did tonight:

-Playing Woo like a fiddle (okay fine, that's not particularly difficult)
-Getting Spencer and thus Jer and Tasha to do exactly what he wanted (Spencer easily could have done all sorts of stuff once Tony comes to him but chose not to)
-Filling Trish in on the situation and after feeling her out realizing she had to be left out of the vote.

Tony has invested a lot in both Trish and Woo since day 1, and neither has anyone else they are even somewhat close with. Closest other pairs inside that previous 6 was easily Trish and LJ and Jefra and LJ. Not anymore.

I think his play here was optimal. Do Trish and Jefra (or Woo for that matter) seem capable enough to you to flip the game around or more likely to be happy to crawl back to Tony to lock up F4 spots where each believe they are going to the end? Woo in particular came across terrible tonight IMO.

LJ strikes me as the perfect person to flip on and then still get his jury vote on the merits of your gameplay. And I also feel super strongly that LJ was going to flip on Tony at 7, aka the most obvious flipping spot ever.

A lot of times flipping on the other winner candidate at F9 in a 6-3 majority works way better in theory than practice because of the social dynamics. In this specific case, Tony couldn't have been positioned better to take the line he did.

I agree with some of what you're saying, but Tony shouldn't want to go to the end with Spencer, Tasha, or Woo. Also I don't think "goodwill" will count for much with Spencer/Tasha/Jeremiah if they decide that voting out Tony is what's best for their game.

I have doubts Cirie would've won Micronesia had she made FTC. Jason Siska has said he would've voted for Amanda over her, and Natalie Bolton has said she doesn't think she would've won. However, Erik Reichenbach has said on reddit he thinks she would've (but in a different thread than his ask me anything).

Oh and the final 8 is the most underrated flipping spot in the game. Tony should've waited a round.

The three outsiders only need to pull one person in to force a tie, and he just alienated Jefra/~somewhat Trish.

He booted Morgan at F9 because Kass is wishy-washy. What makes him think he can count on her now?

Why not sit with them? If I'm Tony at any combination of that FTC I'm feeling good about it. You would obviously hand pick Kass & Jeremiah but the game doesn't work like that. He was in no such position to do this before in the first place. What he doesn't want happening is Trish drifting into f3 deal with LJ and Jefra and hey guess what WE KNOW THIS IS WHAT WAS HAPPENING based on tonights vote. Tony was RIGHT.

He played his hand perfectly. He tipped off exactly who he needed in order to secure the votes and that's it. Now this alone risks exposure and leaves him open to counterplay.but he's playing for the win not surviving one more tribal. When he pulls it off like he did here he's secured a much much stronger position. Tony isn't a threat to Tash/Jeremiah/Spencer until f5 or so. THAT'S what I mean by "goodwill." All he did tonight is shift the balance of power away from LJ/Jefra/Kass/Trish to these 3 I mentioned. And now he forces Trish back to his camp - this is why the other three need to vote her out next.Y'all are talking about his former Alliance with LJ/Jef/Kass like they were all super tight together but this wasn't the case at all. Tony was trumped by LJ and he needed to decapitate their leader to secure his position. He saw this weeks in advance and pulled it off. This is as far from spew as it gets. I mean there weren't even any leaks. He played masterfully.

Now he should be sitting pretty for a while. For this group of 3 to turn on him immediately wouldn't make any sense on any level. They have the power to vote him out. He's just positioned himself where he's currently shooting for f4 & f5 immunity wins and victory. That's a lot better than gg at f7. And in the meantime he's got plenty of time to work on further security. I'm not saying he just won the game just that he did improve his spot.

Jefra & Kass were never his allies, in name only. Trish was drifting away. He was in trouble. He realized it and did something about it. That's all you can do and he executed it perfectly.

He was never in with Jefra how can he alienate her? They were just a numbers alliance. He didn't personally boot Morgan what? Why would she be bitter, she was never aligned with him..? Why would Sarah be bitter she tried to vote him out in her own power play and lost? If anything she's a lock to vote him at FTC. Juries are bitter towards close allies who vote them out (usually) and LJ is the only one who is out of the game that fits this description.

If you told me in week 5 that I'd be calling Tony a masterful player I would've loled at you and future me because he came off pretty dumb initially. Dude has elite Survivor game skills though. Great instincts.

Crap, I was just worried about spoiling myself online. Hopefully we will be back from whatever the evening fun is by end of the show so I can just go to bed.

Cracked up at tribal council when Tony told Jeff he works in construction, since he's already told a bunch of people he's a cop. Also I loved Sarah's facial expressions whenever Kass was trying to make a point.

Btw, a couple weeks ago when some people were saying that LJ didn't waste his idol on Tony because it bought him trust with Tony in their alliance....yeah, no.

The edit.

The producers love Spencer and he's generally presented in a positive light. Winners are rarely presented very negatively.

The hero kills the bad guys and gets the girl...even in "reality tv"

My initial thought is that the flip at F8 would have been much better. However if you think about what that would actually look like it appears less attractive imo. After blindsiding LJ at F8 with the help of Woo/Tasha/Jeremiah, Tony puts himself in a position where Trish, Jefra and Kass no longer trust him. Whilst Woo and Jeremiah are probably on board for that final 4, Tasha does not seem like the kind of player that is going to be happy with second place and thus Tony unintentionally creates the best scenario for a women's alliance since One World.

Which makes me think that making the move this week may be better. He has time to bring Trish and maybe Kass back in and can emphasize to Jeremiah and Spencer the importance of keeping the genders balanced. And waiting till final 7 may be too late as that move would definitely require Kass or Trish.

Hmmm

I loved LJ and was rooting for either him or Tony to win. So I'm not sure I liked this move because obv it eliminated LJ and I think it lowered Tony's chances of winning.

However, in terms of entertainment, it was great, and if Tony ends up coming out of this well, I'm a-okay with it

OTOH I do think Spencer took too much of a risk going along 100% with Tony's plan. I think hi best move this week probably would have been to organise for both him and Tasha to vote for Jeremiah. If Tony is lying then he is still in the game with an idol. If Tony is telling the truth then Jeremiah is voted out but a huge rift in the six person alliance is exposed and Spencer and Tasha hold the balance of power in the coming round. Getting rid of Jeremiah in this spot is +EV for Spencer imo because as it stands now everyone is going to assume that Spencer/Tasha/Jeremiah have a solid final 3 alliance. Removing Jeremiah shows that there is at least room for one more.

As Spencer, there, my thought would be that if Tony is going through such an elaborate lie, its because they aren't splitting the vote so throwing my vote on Jeremiah doesn't do anything to save me. Better to just get in solid with my potential new allies, and play the idol for safety if I thought it was warranted.

I came here to say pretty much this. Hated tony the first episode, but he's carrying the season and is probably a goat.

Agree with your first paragraph. Flipping at f8 feels like a lock Tasha win, khaos notwithstanding.

I'd be fine with this f9 move if he had one more ally. I think I prefer an f7 or possibly f5 (assuming Kass is a unanimous f6 boot) as they give you a better chance to bring trish along. She's not moving at f9 because its pointless to do so, but I don't think she's planning to sit next to lj at the end

Me too. I'm expecting a whole bucket full of butthurt.


Count me among those who disliked Tony at first and gave him no chance to even make the merge, to now loving how much he has brought to the season and being impressed at the way he has played. He may have become paranoid by all the votes he was receiving, but he completely turned that on its head and used it to break up the LJ/Jefra/Trish group.

Vix, do you think its a lock that he now sticks with Tasha, Spencer, and Jeremiah to pick off the Trish, Jefra, and Kass? I kind of doubt that's how Tony looks at it. I think he approaches his game by figuring out who he feels is the next biggest threat to him personally in the game:

Woo - solidly on team Tony after he "saved" him from an LJ led blindside.
Jefra - who does she cling to now that LJ is gone? She has done nothing to indicate she is capable of making moves on her own.
Kass - who the f knows where her head is, but can anyone really feel good about relying on her as part of a plan to make a move?
Spencer/Tasha/Jeremiah - inherently dangerous due to their tight bond to each other, as well as a demonstrated ability to win challenges.
Trish - may have burned this bridge, but on the other hand he did include her on his thinking, so she may be salvagable. Tony is probably a bit wary of Trish trying to rally Jefra and Kass to target him, but they can't make the numbers work without S/T/J.

I think maybe he and Woo stick with S/T/J to take out Trish, then picks up the Kass and Jefra pieces and plays the, "have to break up those three" card at final 7. Effective strategy to leverage the desperation of those in the minority to do anything to stick around through one more vote.

My thought process as Spencer would be that I think Tony is telling the truth but he still has the option to change his mind which imo creates a level of risk that is higher than I am comfortable. I think they are always splitting the vote as if they trust each other there is no reason not to.

Yeah if he hadn't wasted his idol he could've totally pulled the awesome move of not playing it this week and going home with it in his pocket.

Time will tell. IMO he looked better taking the 6-3 situation down to 6-1 before making any moves. It is fine to make a play and keep your numbers in tact, but he has hurt his jury chances and broke his alliance. He sits alone with Woo. Unless there is inside info in this thread, it makes no sense to me.

Tony has really grown on me. I think his mistake here was exposing himself as the most likely person to win if he gets there and making himself what should be everyone's obvious target. Before he did this, legit arguments could be made against Woo and LJ over Tony as being the threats that needed to be eliminated. I think he should have waited at least one more week. Cut another leg off the Tasha, Jeremiah, Spencer trio before making this move. It's possible he got nervous that LJ would win immunity next time and prevent it.

LJ WAS like looking in the mirror for Tony. Now that guy is gone and there is only Tony. Because LJ's equity was so good, it can't be too wrong to take him out. I'll give that. But Tony's on the mountain now. And Tasha and Spencer are both still in the game. One with an idol and both with a fair amount of equity. After seeing what Kass said about Tasha's winning chances--at least Tony has that going for him.

I'm not concerned about Tony losing LJ's vote. I think LJ will vote for Tony if he gets there. I'm actually kind of rooting for Tony, but this move felt too soon. Maybe LJ was much more squirrely than was shown, but I think Tony had some time to whittle that other side down a bit more.

My sense is that Trish will stick with Tony, with whom she has played since Day 1. While she didn't go along with his LJ plan, she also didn't divulge it to LJ, so I think Tony can salvage the relationship by reiterating the "me, you, Woo" final three promise and stressing that LJ had to go sometime, so it might as well be now.

As annoying as she is, she seems level-headed enough to realize that she wasn't betrayed - he gave her the chance to come along after all - and that she can still work with him to get to the end. I do think there is a non-zero chance that she might be open to a women's alliance, but she'll be wary of Tasha, Kass is erratic, and Jeffra can't add a lot to it. She's likely better off with Tony and Woo.

For Tony, mending the relationship with Trish is critical. If he can do that his move last night could pay off.

Tony is out either this coming week or the one after. Jeffra and Kass have no reason to stay loyal to him, Trish views him as a wild card, and Woo goes where the wind blows.

THIS might be my fav season ever

if tony wins, i think it will be