Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
I don't think that will be hard to find. My guess is something like +130 to win AFC at this point but I dunno. no way they are favorites to make SB
+122 at pinny.
using recent market prices as a guage of 'actual' probabilites, if season were to end today:
nyj @ hou is like 50/50
pitt @ denver is pitt 60%
team we most likely to end up facing is pitt at home, with NYJ being second likely. of course there are a ton of variables but just for an idea.
worst case scenario NE hosts pitt and the line i think would be -6.5, MAYBE 7 after this week but 6.5 seems safe. that equates to a 72% expected win % for new england.
best case is we draw Denver and are something like -11 or so..which is 87%
vs the jets we probably going to be -8 which is 79%
using quick 3/2/1 weighting of likelihood and we get about 76% chance of making the AFCC game.
at this point to make it simple i am going to assume we draw either Pitt or Bal at home which i think is about the same and assign 72% to win that game..
.72*.76 = 54% chance of winning the AFC...its actually probably higher due to the chances of a weaker team getting lucky in BAL.
of course this is *if* the playoffs started today. since thats not the case and NE can lose the #1 seed then +122 sounds about right to me.
FO has them at 42.4% which is +135 but FO has Pitt as the better team, while the betting market disagrees. I assume the betting market is sharper, but FO definitely has a clue as to whats going on...so again +122 sounds just about right, maybe a little bit of value.
i dont know why i typed all this, i get started on something and cant stop.
Last edited by sublime; 12-21-2011 at 06:23 AM.