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Michigan Football: HARBAUGH Michigan Football: HARBAUGH

10-29-2011 , 04:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electricladylnd
Never said the offense wasn't good, but we definantly get exposed vs good teams, how the hell is that even a debate???

Notre Dame has been ranked only 1 week out of the last 2 years and DR performance this year is obviously a fluke, that stat line would be a fluke for any QB in college.
You mean, the offense does better against bad defenses and worse against good ones?

Denards ypc was no fluke either. His average ypa is over 9 this year. It's ridiculous we're having this conversation.

Basically what it comes down to is if you're willing to cherrypick your stats you can start making arguments like 'Denard is terrible against good teams'
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10-29-2011 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Michigan offense #9 in S&P and #15 in FEI this year. #5 and #2 last year. Those are all SoS adjusted.

Not very good imo.
Last year we played 5 ranked teams

MSU - were down 31-10 going into the 4th.
Iowa - down 28-7 going into the 4th
Wisc - down 31-21 going into 4th
OSU - score 7 points
MSU - down 45-14 going into 4th

So in 15 quarters we scored 59 points that's under 4 points a quarter vs good teams, and you don't think DR non existant passing ability had anything to do with that???
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10-29-2011 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electricladylnd
Last year we played 5 ranked teams

MSU - were down 31-10 going into the 4th.
Iowa - down 28-7 going into the 4th
Wisc - down 31-21 going into 4th
OSU - score 7 points
MSU - down 45-14 going into 4th

So in 15 quarters we scored 59 points that's under 4 points a quarter vs good teams, and you don't think DR non existant passing ability had anything to do with that???
And it's awesome we go into stat cherrypicking mode. Those stats are also filtered for garbage time as well, so there goes that bull**** argument.

And stop using ranked teams based on polls, it's just dumb.
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10-29-2011 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Just out of curiousity, is ND not a good team (21st FEI, 18th FEI D, 9th S&P, 10th S&P D)?

lol 14.1 YPA and 6.8 YPC, basic performance imo.
They're 4-3, so no.
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10-29-2011 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
You mean, the offense does better against bad defenses and worse against good ones?

Denards ypc was no fluke either. His average ypa is over 9 this year. It's ridiculous we're having this conversation.

Basically what it comes down to is if you're willing to cherrypick your stats you can start making arguments like 'Denard is terrible against good teams'
Yeah, 14 ypa is not a fluke.

How you could of watched DR play vs good teams and not think he is an awful passer is beyond me. The guy has a 57% comp and has 29td to 21 ints since last year and you think thats good for college football.

Denard is who he is, and electrifing(sp?) runner but a horrid passer.
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10-29-2011 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electricladylnd
Last year we played 5 ranked teams

MSU - were down 31-10 going into the 4th.
Iowa - down 28-7 going into the 4th
Wisc - down 31-21 going into 4th
OSU - score 7 points
MSU - down 45-14 going into 4th

So in 15 quarters we scored 59 points that's under 4 points a quarter vs good teams, and you don't think DR non existant passing ability had anything to do with that???
Also, I can't believe that I forgot this, but using the other teams score to talk about Denards performance is completely ******ed. Denard doesn't play defense imo.

That wisconsin game btw, 9.6 YPA and 5.5 YPC, what a bad game.
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10-29-2011 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
And it's awesome we go into stat cherrypicking mode. Those stats are also filtered for garbage time as well, so there goes that bull**** argument.

And stop using ranked teams based on polls, it's just dumb.
If you couldn't tell by the games I posted, who gives a *** about stats when you are getting blown the *** out and the defense softens up.

Ok, then name the good teams we have played since last year please. I am sure there are tons of good unranked teams. LMFAO.
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10-29-2011 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electricladylnd
Yeah, 14 ypa is not a fluke.

How you could of watched DR play vs good teams and not think he is an awful passer is beyond me. The guy has a 57% comp and has 29td to 21 ints since last year and you think thats good for college football.

Denard is who he is, and electrifing(sp?) runner but a horrid passer.
Yeah, go back up the thread, see what we were talking about (Denard >> Martinez as a thrower) and just stop. Denard doesn't magically turn into a pumpkin against good teams.
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10-29-2011 , 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Also, I can't believe that I forgot this, but using the other teams score to talk about Denards performance is completely ******ed. Denard doesn't play defense imo.

That wisconsin game btw, 9.6 YPA and 5.5 YPC, what a bad game.
It means he couldn't lead the team to scores until the defense softened up.
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10-29-2011 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electricladylnd
If you couldn't tell by the games I posted, who gives a *** about stats when you are getting blown the *** out and the defense softens up.
The stats are adjusted to filter out garbage time and for SoS. Top ten offense. The offense is Denard. Denard is a better passer than Martinez.
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10-29-2011 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Also, I can't believe that I forgot this, but using the other teams score to talk about Denards performance is completely ******ed. Denard doesn't play defense imo.

That wisconsin game btw, 9.6 YPA and 5.5 YPC, what a bad game.
Considering Michigan had 0 points at half, yes I'd say it was a bad game.
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10-29-2011 , 04:38 PM
Sigh w/e, this argument is so 2010. The stats are available to anyone who wants to learn about FEI and S&P.

Nice win today. Denard played well. @Iowa and @Illinois will be tougher than many think.
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10-29-2011 , 04:40 PM
Maybe not, Iowa still tied with Minny lol.
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10-29-2011 , 04:41 PM
Besides, why are we counting stats from last year instead of this year with the dummy version of RR's offense?
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10-29-2011 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Yeah, go back up the thread, see what we were talking about (Denard >> Martinez as a thrower) and just stop. Denard doesn't magically turn into a pumpkin against bad teams.
No he doesn't turn into a pumpkin, he just is revealed at what kind of passer he is when defenses actually can play defense.

So DR is better than Martinez? OK, so what?

edit - I am convinced you don't watch UM games, you just look at the stat column.
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10-29-2011 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyenimator
Besides, why are we counting stats from last year instead of this year with the dummy version of RR's offense?
Because the sample size of good teams this year is one, because we're laughably ignoring Notre Dame. See notre dame = fluke because of long passes. MSU not fluke even with 30-40 mph winds.
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10-29-2011 , 04:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electricladylnd
No he doesn't turn into a pumpkin, he just is revealed at what kind of passer he is when defenses actually can play defense.

So DR is better than Martinez? OK, so what?
We have a good chance against nebraska. Thanks for the 50 post detour.
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10-29-2011 , 04:52 PM
Ikes, points are what count. He can put up great stats, but he's still prone to slow reads and awful throws.

Against ranked teams in BT play, Denard's offense has put up 31 points in the 1st half. Over the course of 5 games. That's not indicative of a top 10 offense. Those offenses score points.
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10-29-2011 , 04:54 PM
If you're looking only at first half points you already have your mind made up, and there's not much to talk about.
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10-29-2011 , 05:04 PM
The first half decides the outcome of many games. Not W/L, but how the game will progress. In those games, we were playing from behind. It's a little easier to score points while playing from a few scores back. Which is why I value the 1st half a little more. Usually in that time period, it's either a one or two possession game.
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10-29-2011 , 05:12 PM
I have a feeling his speed rating drops in the 2nd half too
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10-29-2011 , 05:13 PM
Reading a bit on SPP and I understand why Michigan might be rated higher on there opposed to their field results. Probably something related to the defense and starting field position.

Regardless of the output SPP spits out, Denard hasn't shown much progression in his passing ability. Even if we're a really good offense, we could be so much better if the kid eliminated those brain farts and lame duck passes.
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10-29-2011 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyenimator
The first half decides the outcome of many games. Not W/L, but how the game will progress. In those games, we were playing from behind. It's a little easier to score points while playing from a few scores back. Which is why I value the 1st half a little more. Usually in that time period, it's either a one or two possession game.
1st half decides about half the game imo.
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10-29-2011 , 05:47 PM
Wins and losses are all that really count. Denard definitely doesn't pass the eyeball test as a passer when he is playing good defenses who are able to contain the run. For Michigan to win those types of games he is going to have to be proficient passing the ball which imo I haven't seen him do yet. I don't think Notre Dame is a great team and if their DBs played a halfway respectable game we would have lost. He was throwing up his usual off the back foot floaters for completions. That didn't fly against MSU (wind whatever he does it all the time) and against a good team D in Wisco last year. End of the day we lost those games and Denard didn't help the cause having to take more responsibility throwing the ball.
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10-29-2011 , 05:47 PM
Look beyond the time. It determines how the rest of the game plays out. The second half doesn't have a cause and effect with the first half, so possessions when the game is closer (first half) should be weighed a little more.

And typical ikes. You're smart. Explain your points instead of telling people to look at stats.
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