k and as for draft trades... the issue is the 48 hour waiting period and us wanting to kick this off soon. any proposed solutions? maybe not allow them for this year and just introduce that next year?

we can just use the 48 hour thing for trades in the actual season and waive it for right now.

or not let rookie picks be traded this year, whatever.

exitonly you seem grumpy :-(

nah super pumped for the opening of RED BULL ARENA WOOOO!




YEA THAS RIGHT SOCCER NOT BASEBALL.

SEE YOU BITCHES LATER!

news flash: exitonly is a euro

Yeah I'm aware of that... I'm just pointing it out. Its funny to me, b/c I eyeball most things and do my calculations off of hard data. Most everyone else I know that plays fantasy comes up with tons of formulas and projections and pays $$$ for fantasy sites. Most of them have lost money in fantasy while I'm EV+. Alot of that has to do with me being 100x more active than they are, but still it goes to show these projections shouldn't be viewed as little more than sophisticated guessing.

Also, not sure if you read what I was saying there. Even if you drop my top 3 HR guys down 10 HRs each from last year (which is purely speculation, but even if). Where is it factoring in those projections Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Kyle Blanks, and Brett Gardner will all see nearly double and in some cases triple the at bats from last year?

I've been a really, really successful MLB fantasy player, and I rely very heavily on projections.

tuq,

thanks for helping us out with the draft order bro

Thunder,
I like your team, but you get major points off for bringing up Brett Gardner when arguing for your power potential.

My team:

C $56 Brian McCann C-ATL
May have overpaid a little bit, but not much, should be a good source of power and SLG from the C spot.

1b $18 Paul Konerko 1B-CHW
Pretty meh player but productive enough, and I kept getting outbid on 1B I really wanted (Pena, Votto, Berkman, Swisher)

2b $68 Brandon Phillips 2B-CIN
Surprised I got him this cheap during the initial "let's spend like drunken sailors" phase. His OBP is not elite and he tends to get nicked up, but other than that he is a terrific option at 2B.

3b $118 Evan Longoria 3B-TB
Knowingly overpaid here. It was either overpay or get shut out off the truly elite players in the beginning. I figured if I were going to overpay for one, I wanted age and position scarcity to be on his side.


SS $14 J.J. Hardy SS-MIN
Cheap MI power.

OF $48 Ichiro Suzuki OF-SEA
This one could go either way. If he steals 30+ and scores 100+ runs, I will be pretty happy with this pick.

OF $38 Nolan Reimold OF-BAL
Probably a slight overpay, but not too bad. Good power potential.

OF $32 Carlos Quentin OF-CHW
Health is a concern, but he has 35 HR power in his bat. Very happy to get him this cheap.

OF $19 Julio Borbon DH/OF-TEX
Given the price and the probability that he becomes a major source of steals and runs, very happy here.

OF $41 Nate McLouth OF-ATL
Most underrated OF in this league I think. His OBP is much stronger than his BA, and he should get tons of runs hitting at the top of a powerful lineup. A true 5-category contributor.

CIF $9 Jhonny Peralta 3B/SS-CLE
More cheap MI power. Also, I targeted multi-position eligibility, because in a deep league where it may be tough to sign FAs (due to bidding and salary hits), having a versatile bench is all the more important.

MIF $9 Ryan Theriot SS-CHC
Nothing special, but should get plenty of runs and a smattering of steals. May start for me depending on whether I end up needing power or speed categories more.

UTIL $39 Hunter Pence OF-HOU
Doesn't walk a ton, but very solid player otherwise. Might still impove further.

SP $71 Adam Wainwright SP-STL
A longer track record of success as a starter would have been nice, but top pitcher on a good team in a weak division is pretty valuable.

SP $85 Dan Haren SP-AZ
Most underrated ace in the game, check out how awesome and consistent his stats have been.

SP $50 Josh Beckett SP-BOS
Ks, wins, should be fine in ERA and WHIP too as Boston heavily invested in their fielding capabilities over the offseason.

RP $37 Ryan Franklin RP-STL
Kind of a meh reliever, but should get plenty of saves.

RP $27 Brian Fuentes RP-LAA
Ditto.

P $20 Max Scherzer SP-DET
Some injury concerns (but what young P doesn't have those?), but true ace potential here. Very high K rate. Steal at $20.

P $5 Daisuke Matsuzaka SP-BOS
Big-time bargain. Was injured last year, but did people forget his ERA was under 3 in 2008? That was probably flukey, but an ERA around 4 with lots of wins is completely realistic.

P $12 Clay Buchholz SP-BOS
This guy was lights out after getting called up from the minors towards the end of last year. Big time potential, very happy to have gotten him.

P $16 Jonathan Sanchez SP/RP-SF
Lots of Ks, advanced metrics really like him.

Bench $12 Matt LaPorta OF-CLE
Hoping he gets 1B eligibility at some point this season. I missed out on lots of other young high-potential OFs I was targeting (Blanks, Maybin), but I was happy to get him and Stubbs.

Bench $15 Troy Glaus 3B-ATL
Should be eligible at both corners; another cheap power source.

Bench $9 Chase Headley OF/3B-SD
Potential + multi-position eligibility. Won't have to reach his full potential to justify the contract.

Bench $18 Martin Prado 2B/1B/3B-ATL
A little expensive, but should get plenty of runs, and I am a sucker for multi-position eligibility.

Bench $4 Bengie Molina C-SF
Not sure why he went for $4 when Ruiz went for $15. Obviously just a one year solution, but that's fine for my backup C.

Bench $8 Jon Rauch RP-MIN
Hoping he gets the closer job in Min. Most sites think he is the favorite.

Bench $8 Drew Stubbs OF-CIN
Good power/speed potential (weighed more towards speed). There were a lot of young players I was targeting, since some of them got bid up pretty high, I just went with whomever I could get the cheapest.

Bench $5 Colby Lewis SP-TEX
PECOTA (the projection system, not the poster) likes him a lot for some reason. Seems weird to me, but I can always waive him for FAs if he isn't performing.



Overall, I like my team a lot. I felt like I struck a very good balance between getting lots of talent in the auction, and leaving myself with plenty of cap room ($4.9M) to play around with during the season. My offense is pretty well-rounded - not particularly strong or particularly weak anywhere. I think it will be slightly above average. I was surprised to see the projections as I thought I would fare better in runs and worse in the power categories.

I was really surprised that the projections rated my pitching as just slightly above average. I really think my rotation is pretty awesome - with lots of Ks and Ws and what should be a fine ERA and WHIP. I don't have much pitching depth on my bench, but there are always pitching surprises during the season and I will have the cap room to bid on them as FAs.

Overall, with no real weaknesses and one of the top rotations in the league, I think I have a very good shot at finishing in the top 3.

If anyone at the top of the draft is interested in moving down, let me know. I'm open to trading and shedding some salary.

That said, let's shoot for the draft to begin Sunday evening at 8PM. Have time for trades and such before then. We'll waive the 48hr period, but all trades must be posted let's say before 6 PM Sunday and are subject (as all trades are) to me signing off on them before the draft. They won't go final until the draft starts.

hahaha maybe, but my point there is if Kendry Morales only hits 29 HRs this year instead of the 34 he hit last yr exit, Karak, AR whoever they'll all go see look at that his power fell off. Yet if Brett Gardner hits 8 HRs this year (in 550 at bats) instead of the 3 he hit last year (in 248 at bats) nobody will say anything or maybe even notice and it'll be the same difference.

I may be interested in moving down in the draft (I've already received an offer, actually). Although I'm not sure how that would work because I don't have any real payroll flexibility to take on a quality player, since most of them ended up with ridiculous salaries. If the draft is this Sunday, there's obviously a small window to work out a trade here. PM an offer if interested.

Inside the park ldo

I love how Cleveland was dismissing Kerry Wood's sore lat muscle as a minor strain and then three days later it turns out he'll miss nearly two months.

And that's why I drafted Chris Perez.....

standard pecota run good

I do my homework

***Cue Intro Music***

Representing Pecota in the Inaugural 2+2 MLB Dynasty League:


Starters

C ($9) - Yadier Molina

I wasn't planning on paying for production at catcher, since there are so few quality hitters at the position. For a fraction of the price, Molina offers a nice OBP, a little pop, known durability, and should score a comparable amount of runs.

1B ($112) - Miguel Cabrera

I have a hunch that Cabrera will produce a few near-Pujolsian seasons during his prime and targeted him as a franchise player. Even if he's already plateaued, he should continue to be an elite hitter and is still just 27. It'll be interesting to see what a focused and sober Cabrera can do at the plate next season.

2B ($5) - Akinori Iwamura

Aki will reach base at a decent rate and provide a handful of HR and SB, but he's nothing special. He was a fallback after the other 2B on my board got too expensive. He also plays 2B, pretty much the main reason I drafted him at all.

SS ($33) - Elvis Andrus

I was surprised to get Andrus for this price. It might take another full season (worst case scenario), but I believe his bat will come around soon, allowing him to develop into an elite SB threat at a premium position.

3B ($65) - Pablo Sandoval

Sandoval was very high on my board, although I had to pay more than I expected. At 24, he's not yet reached his prime and should continue to develop more power as he matures. He skipped Triple-A, but he already hits like a fat Ichiro. His projected 2010 wOBA trails only Alex Rodriguez and David Wright at 3B.

CI/1B ($40) - Billy Butler

I am extremely bullish on Butler's development as a middle of the order power threat. He led the Majors in doubles last season and has the plate discipline and other peripherals to back up his performance. Also only 24, a lot of those doubles are going to start leaving the yard as he matures. Not quite a steal, but I expect his performance to pay for itself.

MI/SS ($35) - Asdrubal Cabrera

This would normally be labeled as a homer pick, if it weren't for the fact that Cabrera is such a good hitter, especially for a SS. He's unlikely to develop much more power, but he has 20-25 SB potential and will be batting leadoff for a very good offense next season.

OF_1 ($120) - Grady Sizemore

This is the homer pick. Sizemore was the first star player I picked up, so of course he's overpriced, but every team has at least one player like that. I'm going to take a lot of **** for this, but now that he's 100% healthy again, I think another 30-30 season with at least a .375 OBP is within reach. He'll also be batting second in front of Choo (as opposed to the Luis Valbuenas and Jamey Carrolls of the world), so even if he doesn't get as many SB opportunities, he'll finally have a decent power threat behind him, which should benefit Sizemore as far as the types of pitches he sees.

OF_2 ($70) - Curtis Granderson

I bid on Granderson right before the market crashed and bargains started popping up, so this is a regrettable pick. I expect a decent rebound now that he's in New York though. 100+ runs, 25 HR, 15 SB and at least a modest uptick in OBP is a strong possibility.

OF_3 ($37) - Carlos Lee

Lee seems to be pretty reliable and should be good for 25-30 HR and a strong OPS. Or last year's drop in OBP and ISO is amplified and I'm screwed.

OF_4 ($24) - Lastings Milledge

Milledge is a gamble, but I have a hunch he'll do something this season. I just have no idea what that might be (I've since back-tracked from my bravado in the chat). Hoping he starts to live up to his potential this season, otherwise it's on to Plan B.

OF_5 ($18) - Nyjer Morgan

I view Morgan as a (much) cheaper alternative to speedsters like Rajai Davis and Dexter Fowler. He might not have the upside of those guys, but what he does have is a solid ability to reach base and a realistic shot at 40-50 SB this season.

Util ($20) - Colby Rasmus

Meet Plan B. This was sort of a splurge pick, since dropping $20 at that point in the auction was risky for me. However, I am much, much more confident in Rasmus living up to his potential than Milledge, so I grabbed him as insurance against my potential mistake from earlier. He could become a productive fantasy option as soon as 2010, but his breakout is definitely on the horizon.

Bench

OF ($5) - Kosuke Fukudome

I regret paying $5 for Fukudome since it took away some of my roster flexibility, but I really needed a veteran back-up OF at the time. Provides a decent option against RHP off the bench.

DH ($4) - Pat Burrell

I'm not banking on it, but given how Burrell averaged 29 HR in the past eight seasons before coming to Tampa, he was worth taking a flier on. He could become a starter if he's finally over that weird neck injury he had in 2009 and reverts back to his usual form.

2B/3B ($4) - Blake DeWitt

DeWitt will be the starting 2B for LAD and I needed a backup MIF. He flashed some decent power last year and could surprise now that he's receiving regular playing time.

C ($4) - John Baker

Another position I just wanted some extra depth at (plus, all my sleepers were gone). I'm surprised Baker was still around at the end, he's one of the better starting catchers available.

Rotation

SP_1 ($101) - Felix Hernandez

King ****in' Felix. Next.

SP_2 ($55) - Matt Cain

A lot of people are saying Cain will regress this season, but I'm not so sure. His ERA will likely move back closer to his career numbers, but he's still a very strong play as a second starter and has some upside. I didn't get any kind of deal on him, but he was nominated early and was at the top of my board (oh well).

SP_3 ($15) - Carlos Zambrano

Zambrano has been kind of iffy the past two seasons, but he seems to still have a lot left in the tank and has apparently taken steps to improve his conditioning this off-season (we'll see about that). At worst, he's a reliable innings eater with quality peripherals and a good K rate.

SP_4 ($31) - Brett Anderson

Another "hunch" pick. I paid more for a relatively inexperienced pitcher in Anderson because I think his career is really going to take off soon. He was sort of rushed last year, so hopefully his skills catch up with him in 2010. Ace potential.

SP_5 ($10) - Joe Blanton

Blanton was appealing as a late round pick given his durability, power arm, and quality run support. I had wanted another power pitcher to round out the rotation and liked him at this price.

Bullpen

CL_1 ($61) - Brian Wilson

I broke my own rule and over-paid for saves here. Fortunately, Wilson is one of the better second-tier closers out there. Good peripherals, lots of K's, lots of save opportunities, and job security made him appealing at that price.

CL_2 ($35) - Francisco Cordero

A little more of a bargain, as far as quality closers in this auction go. Similar to Wilson.

CL_3 ($7) - Chris Perez

I knew Perez would be Cleveland's closer by mid-season after Wood got traded, but I didn't think Wood would force the transition so soon. Perez was groomed to close in both St. Louis and Cleveland. Should be the team's permanent closer for multiple seasons once Wood is gone, is only 24, and has a great arm. Very happy with this pick.

RP_1 ($4) - George Sherrill

Not expecting him to receive many saves, just mow down NL hitters and rack up nice numbers.

RP_2 ($4) - C.J. Wilson

I would have liked this pick more if it weren't for the idiots in Texas talking about making him a starter. Otherwise, he'd be in line to close once Francisco throws his back out playing Twister or gets swine flu or some other pansy-ass excuse.

Reserves

SP ($5) - Derek Holland

Future ace and certainly worth stashing for a year at a near-league minimum salary. He could be productive this season though.

SP ($5) - Trevor Cahill

The Hudson to Anderson's Zito. Another buy-low candidate worth saving a roster spot for.

SP ($4) - Jeremy Bonderman

Bonderman seemed to be on his way to becoming a pretty good pitcher before he ran into some nasty injuries. Reports indicate he's 100% healthy and feeling strong. Could be a huge payoff if he gets his career back on track.

Bottom Line

I intentionally targeted young, up-and-coming players for my team. The obvious advantage to this is that the team is built for the long-haul and has a ridiculous amount of upside. Unfortunately, it also means that contending is going to be a challenge this year (after that, I'm not too worried). There really wasn't much strategy involved other than to try and build a balanced roster, skill-wise. I am very happy with my roster though, since I managed to get a lot of my target players. It should be fun to see how this team develops, especially after my draft picks start to join the party (clearly I have no life and take a lot of pride in my fantasy drafts).

A middle of the pack finish is likely, but if I read the development of some key players correctly, I could sneak into the top five behind some breakout seasons.

Thoughts?

MeTrain: where them tater chips

MeTrai: miguel ate em all up

MeTrain: miguel, you ate up the tater chips

ThisLittleMiggy: This is true, I ate them all up!

MeTrain: damn son, them tater chips was doritos x-13d super science brand, you cain't pick at **** up at the publix
you gotta go through channels

ThisLittleMiggy: One or two just would not do, I had to eat them all up

MeTrain: now how we gone eat some chips if we ain't got no chips to eat

Well said.

I like PeCota's team, he set himself up for year 2 better than me that is for sure.

Yea i think Cota could sneak into the money this year, and is set up really well for the future. But Lastings and Nyjer in his starting lineup and nobody worth anything on the bench to replace them, doesn't look so hot for this year.

In my defense, Nyjer is there mainly for the SB and considering I have the top pick in the draft, I might be able to dig up an OF to replace Milledge's potential lack of production.

wow pecota laying the smack hizzie down dizzle

Not at all, it's a fair statement since he was only taking my ML draft into account. I'm starting to think Milledge will end up as my worst pick this year.