I like that he is pretty clearly going to play more snaps than most rbs this season. Didn't really like any of my options there.

Kinda hate the 12 or 1 pick because it's hard to gauge what will be there 24 picks later. Have to reach for guys sometimes

Because he's going to make up for a few losses in receptions with massive yardage and TD's.

Looks quite good to me clots of solid value. First 4 are perfect, no way I take Forsett over AJG. 8 and 9 only picks I think could've been done much better, the rest looks great, nice job!

Herron and Ajaya should go undrafted.
Love Robinson in the 6th (I'm high on him even if he is a jag)
Would have taken D. Martin>Ivory. Way more upside with Martin and him being your RB3 you can gamble more. And since you only have 1 wr at this point I'd also go Landry/Maclin/Nelson A > Ivory...(don't like Ivory much)
Royal should have been snap picked in 12th even if you needed a QB. Way too much value there.

Great value in T. Williams too

There's about as much evidence Hyde can be a steady three-down back as there is Abdullah can be. Abdullah is a great receiving back in a very good offense, though, so in PPR I take him.

The SF backfield is so crowded. They brought in Bush for passing work. Mike Davis and Kendall Hunter could/will steal some carries. They might even use Bruce Ellington in some gimmick hybrid role.

Betting on "average talent being fed the ball for some reason" is a bad bet IMO. I think Hyde is a pretty good power runner, but he's in one of those situations (like Latavius Murray and Joseph Randle) where he seems to be more of the presumptive lead guy in a committee, but is being drafted like he's the bell cow.

Hyde is not in a committee and his situation is nothing like Randle or L. Murray. Hyde is a beast. He'll dominate the carries because he's so much more talented than the rest of the RB's on his roster. I'd say his situation is more like J. Hill with Reggie Bush being his Gio Bernard. I'd guess that Hyde and J. Hill finish really close in points (both being healthy obv) and J. Hill is going in the early to mid 2nd.

Had two drafts over the weekend, this is the first. 16man QB/2WR/2RB/TE/FLEX/6BN
.5 PPR, 4pt Passing TDS. 4th Pick

1(4) Eddie Lacy
2(29) Mike Evans
3(36) Jordan Matthews
4(61) Allen Robinson
5(68) Gio Bernard
6(93) Jason Witten
7(100) Philip Rivers
8(125) Andre Williams
9(132) Darren McFadden
10(157) Brandon Coleman
11(164) Cecil Shorts
12(189) Daniel Herron
13(196) Jets D/ST
14(221) Ryan Fitzpatrick
15(228) Justin Tucker

For a 16teamer, Gio is really the only starter I don't feel great about, but all the RB's I really wanted got picked before my Robinson pick. My bench is pretty bleh, but its a 16teamer, and so is everyone elses.

I offer it up to you to dissect.

Sounds like homerism to me, he looked unimpressive last year.

In a 10 team std league w/ all TDs are 6 pts 1q,2r,2w,1f (1 keeper max) I'm keeping ODB in the 16th

I have the 5th pick and L Bell is being kept as the 9th overall. If AP, Charles, Lacy & lynch are gone do I pick up the next best RB or do I go Antonio Brown? Is it okay to target Godgers or Luck at 16?

Brown or Dez or Julio would all be fine (Gronk too if you guys start a TE), and I'd take them all over the next RB. Luck/ARod are fine in 2 if that's the way you want to go.

agree with this, I am also not even sure he is "so much more talented" than the other backs on the roster. I predict I will own exactly 0 Carlos Hyde this year.

I'm a Raider fan. He looked amazing to me from what I've seen this preseason. As a Raider fan I'd snap take Hyde>Murray

I think I found the problem

I think he should be the best back on the roster, but he's not much of a receiver, and I expect SF to be playing catch-up a fair part of the time. I also think Mike Davis is very good, now that he's actually in shape.

I just don't think there's a ton of upside to Hyde, given the offense he's in and the role he's best suited to. He pretty much has to return the top end of his projection to justify his current ADP. I don't see him turning out some bell-cow 1,500-1,800 YFS season, even in the most optimistic scenario.

Well, I'd gladly bet on this.

Second one, 12team QB/2WR/2RB/TE/FLEX/6BN full ppr, 6pt Passing TDs, 1pt per 25 return yards.

1 Keeper, cannot have been drafted in the first three rds, and has to have been drafted.

I inherited the team this year, and it was pretty terrible, but Ingram with a 9th is decent enough value.

4th pick.
1. Antonio Brown
2. Randall Cobb
3. Brandin Cooks
4. Todd Gurley
5. TJ Yeldon
6. Shane Vereen
7. Tevin Coleman
8. Tony Romo
9. Mark Ingram (K)
10. Danny Woodhead
11. DeVante Parker
12. Dwayne Allen
13. David Johnson
14. Brandon Coleman
15. Javorius Allen

The commish hasn't put the teams up yet, so I'm not 100% sure I got my pick order right for rds 10-15.

I didn't draft a D or a Kicker as I feel that the 14th/15th round picks are better spent on fliers for potential keepers. This is the first keeper league I've done, so I'd like to know your opinions on that strategy.

Nath,

Does Hyde really need to have 1500-1800 YFS to justify his draft spot in standard? Even if he's sharing work more than expected, he should get at least 1200 YFS and 8 TDs, which seems fine for where he's being drafted, no? And he definitely has potential for higher than that.

I don't really see Davis or Hunter being much of an issue, is there word out of camp that Davis/Hunter combo projects to get anything more than 3-4 touches a game?

agree with all the hyde haters. i see him as a 2 down plodder who wont catch passes on a team that has a decimated o-line and figures to be behind a bunch and not running out the clock in 2nd halves. a team that brought in bush and kinda likes davis. also i was reading an article that said he was one of the least elusive rbs in the league. it used a lot of strange stats like stuff percentage and things. i wish i still had the link to it but since it only served to confirm my feelings on hyde i just read it once and didnt save it. will not own in any league.

I could see Hyde ending up like Rashard Mendenhall when he was on the Cardinals 2 years ago.

Woodhead in the 10th is really really nice. Allen is super weak TE for PPR...there should be better guys on the wire tbh.

I know it's keeper but I think 4th is too early for Gurley in PPR, but I could be completely wrong on that.

10 Team QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/DST/K. 6PPTD everything else standard.

Who won and lost the draft?

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I think what Nath was trying to say is that some people think that Hyde has some crazy upside (1500-1800 YFS/12 Tds) and that he doesn't think that is the case (I agree with him).

More what he was trying to say was that something like 1200 YFS and 8 TD is close to (if not) Hyde's ceiling and he NEEDS to hit that to return value for his ADP. Whereas the guys going around him like Randle, Murray, Stewart have the chance to have those monster years.

Ahh, gotcha. I think his ceiling is a bit higher than that, but I agree with your general thoughts. I actually think Hyde's floor is pretty decent and certainly better than Randle's or Stewart's. I think Murray is the only guy of those who has a high enough chance at that ceiling to even consider. I just don't see how Randle gets enough touches and the chances of J Stew staying healthy the whole year seem quite low to me.

I think your 1200/8 line is his ceiling if all goes well, and he could totally be in like for like a 700-800 yard season if that team falls apart. (And given that the team about 75% fell apart in the offseason already, that circumstance doesn't seem like a stretch.)

I haven't heard much word out of camp, but I'm not relying on that so much as my evaluation of Davis as well as of the problems I expect that offense to have.

If Hyde was a little better, or he was a better receiver, or the team on the whole was a little better, I'd probably be more willing to draft him. It's not even so much that I'm outright negative on him, it's just that I don't expect to own him at all because the public is higher on him than I am. I just think his situation has too many negative indicators.

On preview: Blackburn's post also explains it well, although I'm not that crazy on Randle or Murray either, for similar reasons.

If Hyde is healthy for 16 games he'll easily have > 1500 yards/10 TD's (and probably > 20 receptions)

I think the niner implosion is a little more overstated than people think. Even though their Defense was decimated they still are a good unit (Bowman is an elite player) and they'll be more competitive than people think. They won't come close to making the playoffs though. Because of Kap and their shaky WR's Hyde will be used the same as Gore. It's not like they're going to be down by 2 TD's every game and will abandon the run by the 4th quarter.

1.25 receptions a game is not substantial.

Want to make it interesting on that total line?