The probability of running at 55 bb after 10000 hands with a winrate of 15 bb and a standard deviation of 80 bb is practically zero. A 95% confidence interval is - 1 bb to 31 bb.
I used this tool is a http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

I dont use any table selecting software. I typically open tables until I have the max 24 going, then I start eliminating tables until only the best 10 or so are left, and then I start adding tables again, and keep repeating that cycle, continually adding tables to the max and then trimming down to what feels like the best 10 tables.

I'll usually start up a few small buy in MTT's at the start of a session as well, and sometimes some zoom during the start of a session.

The funny thing is I feel I've played bad, run terrible, and tilted a few times. 50 bb/100 seems easily attainable at 2nl for a player good enough to beat 200nl.

FWIW, Felix Schneiders (Team Online Pro xflixx) beat 10NL for about 30bb/100 in his Grind It Up series.
If you play very well and don't tilt, 50bb/100 is clearly possible at 2NL with some rungood, but the winrates will drop off significantly at 16NL/25NL+ as the number of clueless recreational players diminishes significantly.

2nl is actually really fun I'm finding. And you often get to play 500+ bb's deep at micros which is fun to practice also.

If anything it's the most similar stake to 1/2 and 1/3 live, which makes it a good place to practice the skills used in live play.

Im grinding 5nl to get a feel for it before i start coaching my brother i've played 50k hands at 8bb/100. I lose the most money by far calling fish's all ins when i shouldn't.

One thing i would like to say about the state of the game is poker is definetly still beatable today for a new comer i don't know why so many people inisist otherwise. What's really weird though is that i see a lot of the time when a fish leaves everyone at the table instantly leaves also, thats pretty crazy at 5nl i would have never expected it.

If my memory serves me right , I was multi tabling (16-24 tables) nl2 before black Friday .. and would have sessions of 15+ buy-ins ... TILT kept me from ever moving up because when I tilted playing that many tables I would likely donk 20 buyins away

It sounds like mass multi tabling 2nl is what held you back

crazy thread , 30bb/100 zoom 10nl? 34bb/100 while 24tabling? that 55bb looks bad compared to that because of the hand sample.

Just how can you grind these winrates? share with us your secrets.

30bb/100?

lol not even close

his style is very strange , i wouldnt call it abc , he bets a lot , betting bottom pair to get value from gutshot or draws is not abc , his bets look strange , betting ak 3way 3bet pot on 323 board looks really strange considering it is 10nl , i dont really understand why he does all this stuff , very hard to follow his videos.

I always though vbets require a big target range , gutshots and draws are not enough , they represent a low portion of a calling range (if its a calling range and not a raising one) , he must be either very advanced in theory or he plays all the fat value spots very well , im gonna watch all his grind it up series out of curiousity.

Go to 5:58 in the video. Admittedly the sample size is small, but he won at 11.75bb at 10NL zoom, and 39bb/100 on the regular 10NL tables. (I think they were deep ante games, actually).

FWIW, I think Flix might have benefited from some villains playing differently (i.e. with more spew) against him because of his red spade.

What was the sample size?

5k hands lol

I've done better than that over longer durations

It's all meaningless unless 100k+

He definitely isn't a good player but more for "show" to attract more players to stars

Ah right haha not even worth mentioning then I just played 6k hands last night and went on the sickest 14 bi heater I have ever had. 400 hands later I dropped 5bi.

I'm not sure if it's still this way but in 2010 on stars both 2nl and 5nl tables let you buy in for deep stacks. I think at 2nl you could buy in for 250bbs and at 5nl you could buy in for 200bbs, and this is with no antes. Playing deep against fish who min 3bet aces giving you odds to call any 2 cards is a dream situation. The "regs" at 5nl back then were all complete nits so I'm sure a pro would rip them apart deep to add to the winrate. Also, the standard deviation will be higher so with a bit of run good on their side, it isn't too surprising to see insane win rates.

all these winrates shouldnt be possible without playing deep stack , if you are staying in the game with 200+bb then it may indeed be possible.

Poker is a zero-sum-game so the achievable winrate is whatever the opponents are losing minus the rake.

Back to the title what is a realist winrate for an average player (not a crusher) in current games on pokerstars at 10nl, 25nl, 50nl and 100nl?

I started playing nl again after a break and after 80k hands in nl25 zoom my Evbb/100 was 7bb/100. In normal tables much higher is possible. And in lower stakes you can obviously go higher. I have played over million hands of nl100zoom and hundreds of thousands of hands in nl200 zoom a couple years ago and I think i can still beat nl100. (Im telling this to give you an idea of my background)

I can give you some of my nl25 stats if you are interested.

Yeah that would be cool thanks, you are obviously better than the average 25nl player though so your winrate isn't attainable for me lol :P

post your graph , 7bb 25nl zoom sounds pretty high , tell us everything about your strategy , your stats.... we want to know everything!

I think the theoretically maximum winrate should look something like this:
2nl: 40bb/100
5nl: 25bb/100
10nl: 20bb/100
25nl: 15bb/100

For zoom:
2nlz: 30bb/100
5nlz: 20bb/100
10nlz: 15bb/100
25nlz: 12bb/100

Though I clearly lack experience at 10nlz and 25nlz, any winrate higher than this is most likerly lolrungood.

And I don't think 55bb/100 is sustainable at 2nl even for awesome players like magorko. He merely provided a 10k hand sample.
I played up to 100nl (though mostly 50nl at the moment) but also mess around at 2nlz sometimes and recently I'm getting closer to 15bb/100 than 20bb/100.

Carnivore's 2nl stats are impressive though. Especially considering he's running under EV, plays very tight and provides a 70k sample. If you made a 2nl video, that's probably the only 2nl video I'd ever watch.

Hmm interesting I deffo agree with those as maximum sustainable, what about for an average player learning and working his way up. I haven't played properly in almost 3 years really, I beat 5nl for 8bb for 50k hands and am currently winning at 10nl for 10bb after 40k hands (I have a million leaks obv and my redline is disgustingly bad around -10-12bb/100).

Your question is way too vague, the average poker player is a losing player so...
But if you get half of those theoretical winrates I mentioned, you are certainly a big crusher at these stakes.

I think those stats are pretty good for nl25.

I might aswell give some advice for you guys.

Having a good hud is extremely import. It is worth it to use hours to build it and good pop ups. You want to have stats that are spesific. For example, overall cbet doesnt really tell all that much, instead I have:
Flop cbet single raised pot vs 1 opponent
Flop cbet-fold single rsd pot
Skip flop CB and Check-raise single raised pot OOP
Skip flop CB and check-call OOP.

These 4 stats tell you how the opponent plays as preflop agressor and these give you a lot of information how he plays and thinks about postflop. Then I Have a pop up that has Cbet stats in single and 3 bet pots ip and op vs 1 and multiway for all streets.

Same for 3bets. Overall 3bet tells you something yes but you want to have 3bet ip and 3bet oop separately and then a pop up that has 3bets for every position ip and op. Same for fold to 3bet etc.

The way you make money is by exploiting your opponents. Everyone in these stakes has huge leaks so don`t worry about "balance". I read some posts where people in nl5 are trying to make their opponents bluffs EV equal to zero. No, this is not what you should be thinking while playing. Just exploit as much as you can. And remember that you exploit some players by folding a lot. If some nit with 17/14/4 stats 3bets you and you have AQ in MP just fold it. If someone is folding 65% BB vs SB steal you open 100% in sb (Don´t cbet a lot if he calls).

You will want to have preflop charts that are balanced (3,-4,-5bets and folds with proper frequencies) that you can use against players that have good preflop frequencies and so that you understand when others have bad frequencies. If someone is 4betting a ton and folding to 5bets 70% you don`t 3bet-fold vs him. You 5bet shove all your 3bet bluffs because it`s +EV. Its important to understand the math in these preflop situations.

I think you shouldn´t do anything because its "standard". Just think a lot and trust you thinking and reads. If you are unsure of some spot, do the math. It ´s very slow and maybe boring but it helps a ton.

I hope this helps someone