Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. - Poker Theory - General Poker Theory Forum

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Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR.

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02-14-2016 , 06:02 AM

ceorge

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 502

Imagine a river spot where we have many bluff combos in a single raised pot btn vs bb: eg 9hth2c3c5s.

Here we may consider overbetting OTR with a balanced range to allow ourselves to bet more bluff combos.

However, by definition, the caller's EV will be 0 if he's calling at optimal frequency and we are perfectly balanced either if we bet 1/3 pot or 1.5x pot.

So given the caller EV is 0 in both scenario why EV of betting 1/3 pot is lower than overbetting?

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02-14-2016 , 07:46 AM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,430

you're making some assumptions that may or may not be true.

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02-14-2016 , 09:23 AM

goktrenks

adept

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 855

By betting 1/3p with a balanced range you have fewer bluffs than you'd have with a 1.5p, meaning you'll have to check and give up more of your bluffs,so you don't win the pot as often.Villain's ev is 0 when you bet.If you're forced to bet at a lower frequency you decrease the times villain's ev is 0,thus decreasing the overall EV of your range.

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02-14-2016 , 10:19 AM

ceorge

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 502

Quote:

Originally Posted by goktrenks

I get your point and it makes sense. However given your assumptions wouldn't be advisable to shove instead betting 1.5pot? It would guarantee us the highest betting frequency!

How can you prove EV of betting 1.5pot > shoving?

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02-14-2016 , 10:38 AM

Rei Ayanami

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

You guys know actual poker isn't always the nuts-air vs. bluffcatcher toy game, right.

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02-14-2016 , 10:45 AM

RustyBrooks

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

And yet people find it fertile enough ground to consider talking about in a theory forum. Go figure.

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02-14-2016 , 10:57 AM

Rei Ayanami

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

Quote:

Imagine a river spot where we have many bluff combos in a single raised pot btn vs bb: eg 9hth2c3c5s.

The OP is framing the discussion around a realistic poker spot. If he didn't intend to do that, this part of his post is misleading.

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Also, OP, it makes more sense to simply compare the EVs of each respective bet size from the perspective of your value bets. The whole "betting larger allows you to 'claim the pot' more often" formulation is a just-so explanation, not the clearest truth. You'll find that the solution for many of these toy games is to maximize the EV of value bets where bluffs are EV neutral, and in the case of the pure nuts-air vs. bluffcatcher toy game, that bet size is "as large as possible". Check out The Mathematics of Poker or something for the actual math.

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02-14-2016 , 01:51 PM

ceorge

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 502

Yes I would like to discuss that particular spot as a prototype to generalize wet board where the river bricks; I've been told to bet 1.5x in a balanced way in spots similar to this one and I wanted to understand why that particular size was suggested.

@RustyBrooks what's wrong with this question? If people don't want to contribue with their inputs no one couldn't care less...

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02-14-2016 , 03:04 PM

doctor877

veteran

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 3,107

Villain is only indifferent when we bet. Betting bigger allows us to bet more often if our valuerange is fixed.

Obviously this model only works in polarized spots, but these spots are not that rare. When ranges are more symmetrical it's more complex.

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02-14-2016 , 03:20 PM

#10

RustyBrooks

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ceorge

@RustyBrooks what's wrong with this question? If people don't want to contribue with their inputs no one couldn't care less...

Nothing at all. I'm just saying that looking at the theory behind handling a simplified case of poker is a fine way to learn some insights behind it.

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