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Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR.

02-14-2016 , 06:02 AM
Imagine a river spot where we have many bluff combos in a single raised pot btn vs bb: eg 9hth2c3c5s.

Here we may consider overbetting OTR with a balanced range to allow ourselves to bet more bluff combos.

However, by definition, the caller's EV will be 0 if he's calling at optimal frequency and we are perfectly balanced either if we bet 1/3 pot or 1.5x pot.

So given the caller EV is 0 in both scenario why EV of betting 1/3 pot is lower than overbetting?
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 07:46 AM
you're making some assumptions that may or may not be true.
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 09:23 AM
By betting 1/3p with a balanced range you have fewer bluffs than you'd have with a 1.5p, meaning you'll have to check and give up more of your bluffs,so you don't win the pot as often.Villain's ev is 0 when you bet.If you're forced to bet at a lower frequency you decrease the times villain's ev is 0,thus decreasing the overall EV of your range.
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goktrenks
By betting 1/3p with a balanced range you have fewer bluffs than you'd have with a 1.5p, meaning you'll have to check and give up more of your bluffs,so you don't win the pot as often.Villain's ev is 0 when you bet.If you're forced to bet at a lower frequency you decrease the times villain's ev is 0,thus decreasing the overall EV of your range.
I get your point and it makes sense. However given your assumptions wouldn't be advisable to shove instead betting 1.5pot? It would guarantee us the highest betting frequency!

How can you prove EV of betting 1.5pot > shoving?
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 10:38 AM
You guys know actual poker isn't always the nuts-air vs. bluffcatcher toy game, right.
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 10:45 AM
And yet people find it fertile enough ground to consider talking about in a theory forum. Go figure.
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 10:57 AM
Quote:
Imagine a river spot where we have many bluff combos in a single raised pot btn vs bb: eg 9hth2c3c5s.
The OP is framing the discussion around a realistic poker spot. If he didn't intend to do that, this part of his post is misleading.

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Also, OP, it makes more sense to simply compare the EVs of each respective bet size from the perspective of your value bets. The whole "betting larger allows you to 'claim the pot' more often" formulation is a just-so explanation, not the clearest truth. You'll find that the solution for many of these toy games is to maximize the EV of value bets where bluffs are EV neutral, and in the case of the pure nuts-air vs. bluffcatcher toy game, that bet size is "as large as possible". Check out The Mathematics of Poker or something for the actual math.
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 01:51 PM
Yes I would like to discuss that particular spot as a prototype to generalize wet board where the river bricks; I've been told to bet 1.5x in a balanced way in spots similar to this one and I wanted to understand why that particular size was suggested.

@RustyBrooks what's wrong with this question? If people don't want to contribue with their inputs no one couldn't care less...
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 03:04 PM
Villain is only indifferent when we bet. Betting bigger allows us to bet more often if our valuerange is fixed.


Obviously this model only works in polarized spots, but these spots are not that rare. When ranges are more symmetrical it's more complex.
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote
02-14-2016 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ceorge
@RustyBrooks what's wrong with this question? If people don't want to contribue with their inputs no one couldn't care less...
Nothing at all. I'm just saying that looking at the theory behind handling a simplified case of poker is a fine way to learn some insights behind it.
Bet 1/3 pot vs 1.5x pot OTR. Quote

      
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