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Originally Posted by Deorum
I am not sure I understand. Perhaps you could explain.
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In other words, if Jesus really were appearing to people in these circumstances, then we would expect to see a higher rate of occurrence of this happening (weighted, of course) than the other claims, because these ones would contain both the true and false whereas the others only contain the false.
The structure is the following: If X were true, then we would expect Y to occur more frequently than Y'.
But there's no causal connection between the truth of X and the responses Y and Y', so we have no reason to say that we should expect Y over Y'.
For example, "If the world were round, we would expect more people to claim that the world is round than flat." It might be true now that more people claim the world is round than flat, but at a different time in history, the world was still round but more people claimed that the world was flat.