Richard Hawkings in a debate against Ben Stein says that there is about a 1%chance that God as we know in the bible exists. So I pulled out my calculator and multiplied 1% X eternity and got a still rather large number. Is this enough for me to commit to Christianity considering considering the 99 painless deaths still doesnt make up the 1 time I spend eternity in Hell?

Your thoughts.

lol Pascal's wager

http://rationalwiki.com/wiki/Pascal%27s_Wager

read criticism and assumptions

interesting!

So if I can find a God that punishes people to an eternity to hell for believing in the typical christian God then it would make it an even wash.

Maybe there's a 1% chance god actually puts believers in hell for their credulity?

Maybe there's a 1% chance Phlogiston, God of Rhinos is the one true god and if you don't spend 12 hours a day on your knees showing him obedience you will go to hell?

Maybe there's a 1% chance that Islam is actually true, and if you aren't praying to Mecha twice daily you are going to hell.

Maybe there are an infinite number of possible gods that could put you in hell for an infinite number of reasons?

Does it seem rational to learn about them all, no matter how contrived and fantastical they may seem, and spend your life trying to limit the chances you are sent to hell by a being for which there is no evidence, to a place for which there is no evidence?

If that seems like a good, rational, smart way to live your life, then by all means, become a believer. They need sheeple like you.

So was it Stephen hawking or Richard Dawkins who said this, or maybe a mix?
1% seems awfully high to me, but obviously does not change the underlying argument.
A good way to think about this, is how much money should a Nigerian scammer offer you, to get you to ship him 1000$?
You feel pretty confident he is lying, but what if he is offering 1 trillion $? You only have to be wrong 1 out of 1 billion times to break even. Seems like a good deal.

I haven't seen the debate but I'm betting he was being really generous when he gave the odds of the Biblical God existing.

That being said, there have been hundreds of proposed gods. What percentage chance did he give all the other gods?

Let's say that each possible god has a 1% of being correct... wouldn't it then make sense that you'd have to worship all of them or face each religion's potential hell?

Let's just say that there's not enough time in the week to worship all the gods you would have to worship if you follow this logic to its conclusion.

This analogy is awesome.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_ZF8r5e7w

2:05

The good thing about being a muslim rather a christian is that if you're only half arsed, you can just burn in hell for a bit and then go to heaven but if you're a half arsed christian then you're ****ed so my advice is try that instead

Really?

So if you get an email offering you $1 trillion dollars in exchange for $1000 you figure 1 in a billion is a reasonable chance that it is legitimate? I wouldn't. I would put the chance at exactly zero. That is why it is a bad move to send the money. If you do not understand how I am able to conclude that, do not try too hard. Just believe me.

And stay away from gambling in general. You do not have an aptitude for it.

what? Am I being leveled here? I thought it was a good analogy because it is relevant to this thread. Hence, the chance of me getting the 1 trillion and the chance of me going to hell are both exactly zero, as you put it.

Also, HU4ROLLZ?????

And if you read some ancient manuscripts cobbled together by various unknown authors throughout history that contain talking snakes, "she bears" being commanded to rip apart children for mocking a bald man by an invisible deity that is completely unsupported by modern science and is so egotistical that he requires you to "have faith" in him and give money to the employees of his church, and he will reward you with all kinds of presents and happiness when you die is somehow more likely to be true?

why? because nigerians have a bad name?

maybe he means zimbabwe dollars in which case the scam is that you're only getting $100 US value for your 1k

there is always a possibility that you are wrong on anything even if the chances are a billion to 1

It was a bad analogy because the OP postulates a non-zero probability of God existing and the scammer scenario is a zero probability. Thus there is no sum of money that would get me to send $1000 anywhere under those terms.

So really the Christian question is: What do you have to be offered to have faith in God and treat other people well? It's not so tough.

I realize this is a forum where atheists gather to set up straw men and then knock them down while praising each others intelligence, but do not fool yourselves into thinking you really are proving anything. It probably helps you feel better about your choices in life I suppose.

Really, interesting.

Tell me more. Let's set the stake at $100 so its modest. I receive the email promising $1 billion and decide the chances of validity are zero and keep my money. You say there is a possibility I am wrong. I don't see it. Tell me what you think it is and what sum of money would have you sending your $100 off to wherever.

How are these two related?

Good. You have reasoning skills. Now use them to deduce why atheists decide the possibility of a theistic "god" existing are zero.

Proof? The value of money plateaus because i can't buy anything i could possibly want with 10 googol dollars that i can't buy with a few billion. So the trick wouldn't work on me.

Again, interesting. I was under the impression that they did no such thing. Any others want to support Tuco that this is the case?

Having faith in God doesn't have anything to do with what is offered or threatened. Its about knowledge.

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I posted this in the thread where the OP'er mistakenly posted this the first time. Some of it may have already been discussed by now but I figured I'd just post it here as well:


But if there's a 1% chance that the God from the Bible exists isn't there a 1% chance (or at least some chance) that most if not all "Gods" (Allah, Krishna, Shiva, Zeus, Ra, etc.) exist?

You can't follow all of the religions at the same time .... so if we follow the logic that each one has a 1% chance of actually existing then no matter what you do there's going to be a pretty good chance that you're screwed.


Furthermore, if the particular God happens to be omniscient wouldn't He know that you were not sincere? Would that make a difference? How are we to know? But it's possible it could make a difference so even following all the strictures of the religion would give you less than the 1% chance of being rewarded even if you picked the right religion.