Quote:
So if you get an email offering you $1 trillion dollars in exchange for $1000 you figure 1 in a billion is a reasonable chance that it is legitimate? I wouldn't. I would put the chance at exactly zero.
No chance is at exactly zero. One trillion dollars could materialize out of the quantum foam right in front of you with >0. If you're under the impression that you are capable of absolute ultimate categorical certainty, then you think you have super powers.
I don't share that affliction so I know that I'm never capable of being 100% certain of anything, and the only things that have probability 0 are those selected from an infinite range.
Now, one in a billion is way too high in this case. But all he has to do is claim he's a genie who can grant wishes or some **** and then he has a >0 probability of infinite utility.
Edit - The real problem here is that infinity doesn't work well with probability. It just fails.